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The therapies will be improving faster than
治療法比起治療法中存在的缺陷
the remaining imperfections in the therapies are catching up with us.
改進得更快。
This is a very important point for me to get across.
這是我想說的非常重要的一點。
Because, you know, most people, when they hear
因為，很多人一聽到
that I predict that a lot of people alive today are going to live to 1,000 or more,
我推測很多現在活著的人將會活到一千或更多年以上，
they think that I'm saying that we're going to invent therapies in the next few decades
他們都在想，哦，我們將會在這幾十年內發明
that are so thoroughly eliminating aging
延緩老化的治療方法，
that those therapies will let us live to 1,000 or more.
研究如何活到一千年甚至更多的治療方法。
I'm not saying that at all.
我并不是這么說。
I'm saying that the rate of improvement of those therapies
我說的只是這些延長壽命的治療方法的
will be enough.
發展速度會足夠使人們繼續活下去。
They'll never be perfect, but we'll be able to fix the things
這些治療方法我想永遠都不可能完美，
that 200-year-olds die of, before we have any 200-year-olds.
但我們將可以在還沒有兩百歲的人之前就研究到如何治療兩百歲的人所死于的病理因素。
And the same for 300 and 400 and so on.
接下來，我們就在還沒有三，四百歲的人之前就研究到如何治療三，四百歲的人所死于的因素。
I decided to give this a little name,
我稱這為“長壽逃逸速度”，
which is "longevity escape velocity."
要逃離死亡，長壽治療方法必有快速的發展，叫逃逸速度。
Well, it seems to get the point across.
這是個很容易明白的名稱。
So, these trajectories here are basically how we would expect people to live,
這就是我們可以期待
in terms of remaining life expectancy,
在余下的預期壽命，
as measured by their health,
以他們的健康來衡量，
for given ages that they were at the time that these therapies arrive.
到了一定年齡，相對應的治療就相應而出。
If you're already 100, or even if you're 80 --
如果你已經100歲，或者你是80歲，
and an average 80-year-old,
平均80歲，
we probably can't do a lot for you with these therapies,
我們可能很難為您做些什么，
because you're too close to death's door
因為您的時間不多了。
for the really initial, experimental therapies to be good enough for you.
所以最初的，實驗性療法對你已經不起作用了。
You won't be able to withstand them.
你將無法避免老化。
But if you're only 50, then there's a chance
可是，如果您才五十歲的話，
that you might be able to pull out of the dive and, you know --
您很有可能像我剛剛描述的那個樣子擺脫了老化去世的問題。
eventually get through this
您不但可以活的更久些，
and start becoming biologically younger in a meaningful sense,
某種意義上
in terms of your youthfulness, both physical and mental,
你的青春，從身體和頭腦上，你的生命變得更加年輕，
and in terms of your risk of death from age-related causes.
你死于和老化有關的病癥的幾率也會降低。
And of course, if you're a bit younger than that,
當然，如果你還不到五十歲的話，
then you're never really even going
您更有可能永遠擺脫了老化去世的問題，
to get near to being fragile enough to die of age-related causes.
而不會虛弱因老化而生成的疾病死亡。
So this is a genuine conclusion that I come to, that the first 150-year-old --
因此，這是我得到的一個真正的結論，就是說第一位能夠活到一百五十歲 –
we don't know how old that person is today,
我們不知道該人現在多老了，
because we don't know how long it's going to take
因為我們不知道第一代
to get these first-generation therapies.
療法要多久才會出現。
But irrespective of that age,
但無論是年齡，
I'm claiming that the first person to live to 1,000 --
我聲稱的第一人會活到一千年的人 –
subject of course, to, you know, global catastrophes --
當然，排除全球性災難 - 實際上，
is actually, probably, only about 10 years younger than the first 150-year-old.
大概只有比我說的那位活到一百五十歲的人年輕十歲左右。
And that's quite a thought.
很令人值得想一想的結論吧。
Alright, so finally I'm going to spend the rest of the talk,
好，接下來我要用這個講座所剩下的時間，
my last seven-and-a-half minutes, on step one;
我的七個半分鐘來談談我所謂的第一個步驟，
namely, how do we actually get to this moderate amount of life extension
就是我們如何得到這第一批延長壽命的適中治療，
that will allow us to get to escape velocity?
使我們可以達到長壽逃逸速度？
And in order to do that, I need to talk about mice a little bit.
而為了做到這一點，我需要說一點點關于老鼠的事。
I have a corresponding milestone to robust human rejuvenation.
我有一個對強健人類再生相應的里程碑，
I'm calling it "robust mouse rejuvenation," not very imaginatively.
我不是很富有想象力地稱它為強健老鼠再生。
And this is what it is.
這是什么呢？
I say we're going to take a long-lived strain of mouse,
就是我們要采用一種長壽的老鼠，
which basically means mice that live about three years on average.
就等于平均可以活三年左右的老鼠。
We do exactly nothing to them until they're already two years old.
我們完全沒有碰過它們，直到它們已經兩歲。
And then we do a whole bunch of stuff to them,
然后我們對它們做了一大堆的東西，
and with those therapies, we get them to live,
用那些治療方法使它們延長壽命，
on average, to their fifth birthday.
想辦法讓他們平均活到五歲。
So, in other words, we add two years --
因此，換句話說，我們開始把這些老鼠治療后，添加了兩年壽命 –
we treble their remaining lifespan,
已經是它們剩余壽命
starting from the point that we started the therapies.
的三倍。
The question then is, what would that actually mean for the time frame
接下來的問題是，到底什么時候，
until we get to the milestone I talked about earlier for humans?
我們討論的這些才能用在人類身上呢？
Which we can now, as I've explained,
我們現在可以，正如我已經解釋過，
equivalently call either robust human rejuvenation or longevity escape velocity.
把它稱為強健人類再生，或長壽逃逸速度。
Secondly, what does it mean for the public's perception
第二，從我們得到的第一只老鼠時開始，
of how long it's going to take for us to get to those things,
公眾對多久我們才能獲得這些東西，
starting from the time we get the mice?
對這些科技的發展有什么影響？
And thirdly, the question is, what will it do
第三，問題是，它對多少人想要避免老化的人們起作用？
to actually how much people want it?
這些科技有什么影響呢？
