評論
打印
And it seems to me that the first question
我的看法是，
is entirely a biology question,
第一個問題完全是生物學(xué)的問題，
and it's extremely hard to answer.
這是非常難回答。
One has to be very speculative,
一個人必須非常投機(jī)，
and many of my colleagues would say that we should not do this speculation,
和我的許多同事會說，我們不應(yīng)該做這種推測，
that we should simply keep our counsel until we know more.
我們應(yīng)該簡單地保持沉默，直到我們了解更多。
I say that's nonsense.
我覺得這是一派胡言。
I say we absolutely are irresponsible if we stay silent on this.
保持沉默，絕對是不負(fù)責(zé)任的。
We need to give our best guess as to the time frame,
我們需要給我們最好的猜測有時間框架，
in order to give people a sense of proportion
以便使人們有個概念，
so that they can assess their priorities.
使他們能夠評估他們的優(yōu)先事項。
So, I say that we have a 50/50 chance
所以，我說，從我們應(yīng)用強(qiáng)健老鼠再生的科技
of reaching this RHR milestone,
的十五年內(nèi)，我們有百分之五十的機(jī)會
robust human rejuvenation, within 15 years from the point
實現(xiàn)強(qiáng)健人類再生科技
that we get to robust mouse rejuvenation.
這個重要的里程碑。
15 years from the robust mouse.
強(qiáng)健老鼠再生的科技應(yīng)用的十五年內(nèi)，
The public's perception will probably be somewhat better than that.
人們的看法可能會變好。
The public tends to underestimate how difficult scientific things are.
因為人們往往低估的科學(xué)進(jìn)步的困難性。
So they'll probably think it's five years away.
因此，他們很可能會認(rèn)為只需五年。
They'll be wrong, but that actually won't matter too much.
他們可能是錯誤的，但實際上這不太重要。
And finally, of course, I think it's fair to say
最后，當(dāng)然，我認(rèn)為公眾對于老齡化
that a large part of the reason why the public is so ambivalent about aging now
的看法這么的矛盾的主要原因，
is the global trance I spoke about earlier, the coping strategy.
是我剛才談到的全球恍惚的應(yīng)對策略。
That will be history at this point,
這將是歷史性的一刻，
because it will no longer be possible to believe that aging is inevitable in humans,
因為公眾將不再認(rèn)為老化是人類不可避免的，
since it's been postponed so very effectively in mice.
因為它已經(jīng)非常有效地在小老鼠體內(nèi)被推遲。
So we're likely to end up with a very strong change in people's attitudes,
因此，我們很可能會看到人們的觀念有了巨大變化，
and of course that has enormous implications.
而這將會具有極大的影響。
So in order to tell you now how we're going to get these mice,
為了現(xiàn)在要告訴你我們要如何得到這些老鼠，
I'm going to add a little bit to my description of aging.
我要補(bǔ)充一點我對老化的描述。
I'm going to use this word "damage"
我會用“損害”這個詞來表示
to denote these intermediate things that are caused by metabolism
所有由新陳代謝中階段造成的東西，
and that eventually cause pathology.
而最終導(dǎo)致不可避免的死亡。
Because the critical thing about this
因為這個關(guān)鍵的是，
is that even though the damage only eventually causes pathology,
盡管這些損害只有在最終才會造成不可避免的死亡，
the damage itself is caused ongoing-ly throughout life, starting before we're born.
它們是從我們出生之前就開始累積的東西，我們整個人生它們都不斷累積。
But it is not part of metabolism itself.
但是這些損害不是新陳代謝的一部分，
And this turns out to be useful.
這一點對我們來說是有益的。
Because we can re-draw our original diagram this way.
因為這樣我們可以重新繪制我們的原始圖。
We can say that, fundamentally, the difference between gerontology and geriatrics
我們可以說，老年學(xué)和老年病學(xué)之間根本區(qū)別就是，
is that gerontology tries to inhibit the rate
老年學(xué)試圖抑制新陳代謝，
at which metabolism lays down this damage.
這些“損害”累積的速度。
And I'm going to explain exactly what damage is
我等一下會準(zhǔn)確地解釋我所謂
in concrete biological terms in a moment.
的“損害”在生物學(xué)里指的是什么。
And geriatricians try to hold back the sands of time
老年病學(xué)呢，就試圖阻止
by stopping the damage converting into pathology.
這些“損害”所帶來的的后果，
And the reason it's a losing battle
比如說死亡。這是一個敗仗，
is because the damage is continuing to accumulate.
因為損害只會繼續(xù)積累。
So there's a third approach, if we look at it this way.
如果我們這樣看的話，有第三種辦法。
We can call it the "engineering approach,"
我們可以把它叫做工程方法，
and I claim that the engineering approach is within range.
我聲稱工程方法是在人類的科技，技術(shù)范圍之內(nèi)。
The engineering approach does not intervene in any processes.
該工程方法不會干預(yù)任何過程。
It does not intervene in this process or this one.
它不會干預(yù)這個過程，也不干預(yù)這一個。
And that's good because it means that it's not a losing battle,
這很好，因為這意味著這不是一個敗仗，
and it's something that we are within range of being able to do,
并且它是在我們現(xiàn)在的范圍之內(nèi)能夠做到的事情，
because it doesn't involve improving on evolution.
因為它不涉及對人類進(jìn)化改善。
The engineering approach simply says,
該工程方法只是表示，
"Let's go and periodically repair all of these various types of damage --
“我們定期修復(fù)所有的這些不同類型的損害 –
not necessarily repair them completely, but repair them quite a lot,
他們不一定完全修復(fù)，
so that we keep the level of damage down below the threshold
但修復(fù)的足以讓我們繼續(xù)避免
that must exist, that causes it to be pathogenic."
一個會造成導(dǎo)致死亡或生病的程度。”
We know that this threshold exists,
我們知道這個門檻程度的存在，
because we don't get age-related diseases until we're in middle age,
因為我們只有當(dāng)我們在中年時才會得到與年齡有關(guān)的疾病，
even though the damage has been accumulating since before we were born.
即使損害已經(jīng)從我們誕生時就開始累積了。
Why do I say that we're in range? Well, this is basically it.
為什么我說，在人類近期的技術(shù)范圍內(nèi)呢？這基本上就是原因。
The point about this slide is actually the bottom.
這圖片的重點在底部。
If we try to say which bits of metabolism are important for aging,
如果我們試圖說新陳代謝的那個部分才是對老化過程有著重要的影響，
we will be here all night, because basically all of metabolism
那我們可能要在這里呆一整晚，
is important for aging in one way or another.
因為基本上新陳代謝的每個組件都對老化有影響。
