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The geriatrician will intervene late in the day,
老年醫學醫生會在一個人老化過程的后段，
when pathology is becoming evident,
病理越來越明顯的時候，
and the geriatrician will try and hold back the sands of time,
做治療來盡量阻止老化時間
and stop the accumulation of side effects
和副作用積累
from causing the pathology quite so soon.
并且阻止那么快就造成不可避免地死亡。
Of course, it's a very short-term-ist strategy; it's a losing battle,
當然，這是一個非常短暫的戰略，是一個敗仗，
because the things that are causing the pathology
因為導致病理不可避免地死亡的這些副作用
are becoming more abundant as time goes on.
會隨著時間的推移越來越多。
The gerontology approach looks much more promising on the surface,
老年學的方法在表面上看起來更充滿希望具發展前景，
because, you know, prevention is better than cure.
因為你們也知道，預防勝于治療。
But unfortunately the thing is that we don't understand metabolism very well.
但不幸的是，我們對新陳代謝的理解非常少。
In fact, we have a pitifully poor understanding of how organisms work --
事實上，我們對生物體的了解少的可憐 –
even cells we're not really too good on yet.
甚至細胞，我們都不是很懂。
We've discovered things like, for example,
連對細胞如何操作的
RNA interference only a few years ago,
基本知識，例如核糖核酸機能失常，
and this is a really fundamental component of how cells work.
在僅僅幾年前,我們才發現它。
Basically, gerontology is a fine approach in the end,
基本上，如果我們要討論在我們一生中能用到的延長壽命的治療，
but it is not an approach whose time has come
老年學以后將會是一個很好的方法，
when we're talking about intervention.
但它的時機未到。
So then, what do we do about that?
然后呢，這怎么辦呢？
I mean, that's a fine logic, that sounds pretty convincing,
我的意思，這是一個很好的邏輯，
pretty ironclad, doesn't it?
聽起來非常有說服力的，不是嗎？
But it isn't.
但事實并非如此。
Before I tell you why it isn't, I'm going to go a little bit
在我告訴你為什么不能之前，
into what I'm calling step two.
我要談談我所謂的第二步。
Just suppose, as I said, that we do acquire --
我們假設，如果正如我所說的，
let's say we do it today for the sake of argument --
我們 -假設說今天 –
the ability to confer 30 extra years of healthy life
就擁有能夠給現在已是中年，假設說五十五歲的人，
on people who are already in middle age, let's say 55.
多三十年的健康壽命的治療方法。
I'm going to call that "robust human rejuvenation." OK.
我稱這為‘強健人類再生’ 。好。
What would that actually mean
那么實際上這對于現在不同年齡的人們，
for how long people of various ages today --
或者相等地，當這些治療方法到達時
or equivalently, of various ages at the time that these therapies arrive --
已是不同年齡的人有什么影響呢？
would actually live?
他們會活多久些呢？
In order to answer that question -- you might think it's simple,
你可能會認為回答這個問題很簡單，
but it's not simple.
但它并不簡單。
We can't just say, "Well, if they're young enough to benefit from these therapies,
我們不能只是說：“好吧，如果他們足夠年輕，得益于這些治療方法，
then they'll live 30 years longer."
那么他們就會活多三十年的時間。”
That's the wrong answer.
這是錯誤的答案。
And the reason it's the wrong answer is because of progress.
而錯誤的原因是因為進步。
There are two sorts of technological progress really,
對于我們這方面的治療，
for this purpose.
科學進步有兩種。
There are fundamental, major breakthroughs,
第一種是突破性的進步，
and there are incremental refinements of those breakthroughs.
然后還有第二種就是不斷的在那些突破性的進步上做出改良和提高它們的有效率。
Now, they differ a great deal
這兩種科學進步所需的
in terms of the predictability of time frames.
時間的預測度有很大的不同。
Fundamental breakthroughs:
我們很難預測
very hard to predict how long it's going to take
多久才會有
to make a fundamental breakthrough.
突破性的進步。
It was a very long time ago that we decided that flying would be fun,
人類很有可能在很多年前就想在天空上飛行了，
and it took us until 1903 to actually work out how to do it.
可是要等到一九零三年才發現到底怎么飛行。
But after that, things were pretty steady and pretty uniform.
可是這之后，人類飛行的科技就很有步驟地發展下去。
I think this is a reasonable sequence of events that happened
我認為這是一個很合乎情理才導致了
in the progression of the technology of powered flight.
動力飛行的科技進展。
We can think, really, that each one is sort of
我們可以想象這些科技發展的每一步都是
beyond the imagination of the inventor of the previous one, if you like.
上一步的研發人所想不到的。
The incremental advances have added up to something
比起原先每次都遞進增值
which is not incremental anymore.
有進展。
This is the sort of thing you see after a fundamental breakthrough.
在每個科學突破性的進步后，您都會看到這些有步驟性的發展。
And you see it in all sorts of technologies.
而且在很多科技上都是這樣。
Computers: you can look at a more or less parallel time line,
比如說電腦，和飛行科技也很類似，
happening of course a bit later.
只是發生的時間不同罷了。
You can look at medical care. I mean, hygiene, vaccines, antibiotics --
您也可以看一看醫藥保健科技，比如說衛生，疫苗，抗生素，
you know, the same sort of time frame.
也有著一樣的發展時間表。
So I think that actually step two, that I called a step a moment ago,
因此，我認為其實兩個步驟，我剛才稱為一個步驟，
isn't a step at all.
并不完全是一個步驟。
That in fact, the people who are young enough
事實上，很年輕的人
to benefit from these first therapies
會從這些實驗治療方法受益，
that give this moderate amount of life extension,
能使人們的生命適量延長，
even though those people are already middle-aged when the therapies arrive,
即使這些人已經中年，當這些治療方法來到
will be at some sort of cusp.
人們還可以嘗試治療方法。
They will mostly survive long enough to receive improved treatments
他們多數活得足夠長來接受改進的治療方法，
that will give them a further 30 or maybe 50 years.
從而使他們多活30年甚至50年。
In other words, they will be staying ahead of the game.
換句話說，他們將領先于老化的速度。
