評論
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You know, if you haven't got an argument that's that strong,
你知道，如果你還沒有比這一個說法更強的論點，
then just don't waste my time, is what I say.
那么就不要浪費我的時間。這是我的看法。
Now, there is one argument
話雖如此，有一種觀點有些人認為，
that some people do think really is that strong, and here it is.
確實是很強，我們就在這兒討論一下。
People worry about overpopulation; they say,
人們擔心人口過多，他們說，
"Well, if we fix aging, no one's going to die to speak of,
“好吧，如果我們戰勝老化，沒有人類死亡可言，
or at least the death toll is going to be much lower,
或至少是死亡人數變得低得多，
only from crossing St. Giles carelessly.
變得只有不小心越過圣吉爾斯河而死。
And therefore, we're not going to be able to have many kids,
因此，我們不需要有很多孩子，
and kids are really important to most people."
可是孩子對多數人很重要。”
And that's true.
這是事實。
And you know, a lot of people try to fudge this question,
你知道，很多人試圖捏造這個問題，
and give answers like this.
并給予這樣的答案。
I don't agree with those answers. I think they basically don't work.
我不同意這些答案。我認為它們根本行不通。
I think it's true, that we will face a dilemma in this respect.
我認為這是真的，我們會在這方面面臨兩難。
We will have to decide whether to have a low birth rate,
我們將必須決定是否有一個低生育水平，
or a high death rate.
或者高死亡率。
A high death rate will, of course, arise from simply rejecting these therapies,
拒絕這些戰勝老化治療，死亡率就會變高，
in favor of carrying on having a lot of kids.
當然，在這種情況下我們就能生許多孩子。
And, I say that that's fine --
我覺得這沒問題 –
the future of humanity is entitled to make that choice.
人類的下一代，有權做出這個選擇。
What's not fine is for us to make that choice on behalf of the future.
不正確和不應該的是我們現在就替下一代的做出這個選擇。
If we vacillate, hesitate,
如果因為我們猶豫，
and do not actually develop these therapies,
而不開發這些療法，
then we are condemning a whole cohort of people --
那么我們就等于判了我們的子孫一個不能永遠活著的命運。
who would have been young enough and healthy enough
本來因為他們夠年輕，夠健康，
to benefit from those therapies, but will not be,
可以獲益于這些療法。
because we haven't developed them as quickly as we could --
但因為我們的猶豫，沒有盡快開發這些療法 –
we'll be denying those people an indefinite life span,
我們等于不讓這些人有更長的壽命，
and I consider that that is immoral.
我認為這是不道德的。
That's my answer to the overpopulation question.
這是我對人口過多的問題的回應。
Right. So the next thing is,
好，接下來的是，
now why should we get a little bit more active on this?
為什么我們應該在這一方面積極點？
And the fundamental answer is that
最根本的答案是，
the pro-aging trance is not as dumb as it looks.
親老化恍惚并不像它看起來的那么笨。
It's actually a sensible way of coping with the inevitability of aging.
它其實是在應對無法避免的老化時的一個很明智的辦法。
Aging is ghastly, but it's inevitable, so, you know,
老化是可怕的，但它是不可避免的，所以，
we've got to find some way to put it out of our minds,
我們必須想盡辦法把這想法從我們頭腦中忘記，
and it's rational to do anything that we might want to do, to do that.
理性地去做我們想要做的事情來改變。
Like, for example, making up these ridiculous reasons
例如，人類會想出這些荒謬的原因
why aging is actually a good thing after all.
來解釋其實老化是件好事。
But of course, that only works when we have both of these components.
當然，這些荒謬的原因的起因有兩個連接部分
And as soon as the inevitability bit becomes a little bit unclear --
只要命中注定那個部分在我們的腦海中沒那么的肯定，
and we might be in range of doing something about aging --
我們就可以開始對戰勝老化采取行動，
this becomes part of the problem.
這是老化問題的一部分。
This pro-aging trance is what stops us from agitating about these things.
這親老化恍惚常常妨礙人們解決老化這個問題。
And that's why we have to really talk about this a lot --
這就是為什么我們一定要繼續提出以及談論這個課題，
evangelize, I will go so far as to say, quite a lot --
我甚至會說 –
in order to get people's attention, and make people realize
為了吸引人們的注意力，使人們認識到，
that they are in a trance in this regard.
他們在這方面的恍惚，
So that's all I'm going to say about that.
關于這個話題我就說到這里。
I'm now going to talk about feasibility.
我現在要談的是第三點，打敗老化的可行性。
And the fundamental reason, I think, why we feel that aging is inevitable
其根本原因，我想，為什么我們認為老化是不可避免的，
is summed up in a definition of aging that I'm giving here.
是可以用我在這兒給老化的定義作為總結。
A very simple definition.
這是一個非常簡單的定義。
Aging is a side effect of being alive in the first place,
老化是一種活著的副作用，
which is to say, metabolism.
也就是說，新陳代謝的副作用。
This is not a completely tautological statement;
這并不是一個完全同義重復的聲明，
it's a reasonable statement.
它是一個合理的聲明。
Aging is basically a process that happens to inanimate objects like cars,
老齡化基本上是一個過程，發生在無生命的物體如汽車，
and it also happens to us,
也發生在人類的身上，
despite the fact that we have a lot of clever self-repair mechanisms,
盡管我們的身體有很多聰明的自我修復機制，
because those self-repair mechanisms are not perfect.
因為這些自我修復機制還不完善。
So basically, metabolism, which is defined as
基本上，新陳代謝，就是說
basically everything that keeps us alive from one day to the next,
所有為了讓我們能夠每一天活著所維持的種種化學過程，
has side effects.
有副作用。
Those side effects accumulate and eventually cause pathology.
這些副作用會不斷的積累，最終導致病理。
That's a fine definition. So we can put it this way:
這是一個不錯的定義。因此，我們可以這樣表達,
we can say that, you know, we have this chain of events.
我們可以說，大家都知道，我們有著這一系列事件。
And there are really two games in town,
而且根據大多數人，對于推遲衰老，
according to most people, with regard to postponing aging.
只有兩種方法。
They're what I'm calling here the "gerontology approach" and the "geriatrics approach."
這兩種方法就是老年學和老年醫學。
