評論
打印
18 minutes is an absolutely brutal time limit,
十八分鐘是一個非常緊的時間限制，
so I'm going to dive straight in, right at the point
因此我直入主題，講重點的，
where I get this thing to work.
我將馬上開始。
Here we go. I'm going to talk about five different things.
好，我要談五個不同的事情。
I'm going to talk about why defeating aging is desirable.
一，我要談談為什么抗老化是可行的。
I'm going to talk about why we have to get our shit together,
二，我要談談為什么我們必須打起精神，
and actually talk about this a bit more than we do.
多討論這個課題，并且發覺我們應該指望戰勝老化。
I'm going to talk about feasibility as well, of course.
當然，三，我也會談談戰勝老化的可行性。
I'm going to talk about why we are so fatalistic
四，我要談談為什么我們在人類抗老化上采取的行動這么的認命，
about doing anything about aging.
以為都是注定的。
And then I'm going spend perhaps the second half of the talk
然后，第五，我也許在這個節目的下半段的時間談談
talking about, you know, how we might actually be able to prove that fatalism is wrong,
我們如何證明這個對戰勝老化漠不關心以及以為是注定的心態是錯誤的，
namely, by actually doing something about it.
并且實際上做點什么事來糾正這個錯誤。
I'm going to do that in two steps.
這第五點，我會用兩個步驟來談論。
The first one I'm going to talk about is
第一個步驟是
how to get from a relatively modest amount of life extension --
如何從一個相對適中的延長壽命治療科技 -
which I'm going to define as 30 years, applied to people
我這就把它定義為可延長三十年壽命，
who are already in middle-age when you start --
并且在已經是中年年齡的人開始應用 –
to a point which can genuinely be called defeating aging.
直到一個能真正被稱為戰勝老化問題的程度。
Namely, essentially an elimination of the relationship between
也就是說，實質上消除了你多大年紀，
how old you are and how likely you are to die in the next year --
以及你在下一年死去或
or indeed, to get sick in the first place.
生病的可能性之間的關系。
And of course, the last thing I'm going to talk about
最后一件事第五件事情，
is how to reach that intermediate step,
第二個步驟我要談的是如何實現過度步驟，
that point of maybe 30 years life extension.
那個能給我們每一個人延長三十年壽命的治療科技。
So I'm going to start with why we should.
好，我就從為什么要延長人類的壽命開始。
Now, I want to ask a question.
現在，我想問一個問題。
Hands up: anyone in the audience who is in favor of malaria?
觀眾席里有誰贊成瘧疾是有利的？請舉手。
That was easy. OK.
好，這很簡單。
OK. Hands up: anyone in the audience
行。行。請不知道瘧疾
who's not sure whether malaria is a good thing or a bad thing?
是好事還是壞事的人舉手？
OK. So we all think malaria is a bad thing.
好。所以，我們都認為，瘧疾是一件壞事。
That's very good news, because I thought that was what the answer would be.
這是一個非常好的消息，因為我原以為這就是答案。
Now the thing is, I would like to put it to you
現在我希望你們想一想
that the main reason why we think that malaria is a bad thing
我們認為瘧疾是一件壞事主要的原因，
is because of a characteristic of malaria that it shares with aging.
是因為瘧疾和老化有著共同的特征。
And here is that characteristic.
那個特征就是兩者都殺死人。
The only real difference is that aging kills considerably more people than malaria does.
唯一真正的區別是，老齡化殺死的人數比瘧疾殺死的多許多。
Now, I like in an audience, in Britain especially,
現在，我喜歡觀眾，尤其是在英國的觀眾，
to talk about the comparison with foxhunting,
比較一下老化和打獵狐貍。
which is something that was banned after a long struggle,
打獵狐貍是是經過長期斗爭
by the government not very many months ago.
不久前被政府禁止的活動。
I mean, I know I'm with a sympathetic audience here,
我的意思是，雖然我知道富有同情心的觀眾應該大多數都反對打獵狐貍，
but, as we know, a lot of people are not entirely persuaded by this logic.
但我們知道，很多人并不是完全被這個邏輯說服。
And this is actually a rather good comparison, it seems to me.
在我看來，這其實和老化是一個不錯的比較。
You know, a lot of people said, "Well, you know,
你知道，很多郊外的人說：“你們這些
city boys have no business telling us rural types what to do with our time.
住在城市的人沒有權利告訴我們什么活動可以做什么東西不能做。
It's a traditional part of the way of life,
這是我們住在郊外的人的傳統生活方式的一部分，
and we should be allowed to carry on doing it.
我們應該有權力繼續做它。
It's ecologically sound; it stops the population explosion of foxes."
這是促進生態健全的，它控制了狐貍數量爆漲?！?/div>
But ultimately, the government prevailed in the end,
但是，政府最終占了上風，
because the majority of the British public,
因為大多數的英國公眾，
and certainly the majority of members of Parliament,
還有國會多數成員，
came to the conclusion that it was really something
得出的結論，就是這打獵狐貍
that should not be tolerated in a civilized society.
是一個文明社會所不能容忍的活動。
And I think that human aging shares
我認為，人類衰老也有這些特點，
all of these characteristics in spades.
它是一個不能容忍的活動。
What part of this do people not understand?
這有什么難明白的？
It's not just about life, of course --
這當然不只是生命，
it's about healthy life, you know --
這也是有關可以健康的生活下去。
getting frail and miserable and dependent is no fun,
因為無論人們覺得死亡是否好玩是否應該容忍，
whether or not dying may be fun.
身體越來越衰弱，悲慘地依賴別人一點都不好玩。
So really, this is how I would like to describe it.
因此，其實這就是我想要對它的人類衰老描述。
It's a global trance.
這是一個全球性恍惚。
These are the sorts of unbelievable excuses
這是人們對老齡化作出了
that people give for aging.
種種令人難以置信的借口。
And, I mean, OK, I'm not actually saying
而且，我的意思是，好吧，我不是在說
that these excuses are completely valueless.
這些借口是完全沒有價值。
There are some good points to be made here,
這些借口也有一些好的積極方面。
things that we ought to be thinking about, forward planning
比如說我們應該思考的種種問題，有規劃些，
so that nothing goes too -- well, so that we minimize
來盡量減少我們在戰勝老化路途上
the turbulence when we actually figure out how to fix aging.
的不必要的動蕩。
But these are completely crazy, when you actually
但只要如果你真正衡量它們，
remember your sense of proportion.
這些借口都是完全瘋了！
You know, these are arguments; these are things that
你知道，這些借口的論點
would be legitimate to be concerned about.
是合理的，值得去關注。
But the question is, are they so dangerous --
但問題是，這些論點有沒有那么危險?
these risks of doing something about aging --
戰勝老化的風險
that they outweigh the downside of doing the opposite,
有沒有高過
namely, leaving aging as it is?
不理會人類老化的代價？
Are these so bad that they outweigh
難道這些修復老化的風險如此糟糕，
condemning 100,000 people a day to an unnecessarily early death?
比每天超過十萬人面對早死的命運還糟糕？
