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Before I talk about that,
談到這之前
I've written down at the bottom there
我在底下標出了
the slope of this curve, this straight line.
這條曲線的斜率，即這條直線
It's three-quarters, roughly,
大約為3比4
which is less than one -- and we call that sublinear.
小于1,呈“次線性”
And here's the point of that.
這里有一點值得注意
It says that, if it were linear,
當最大斜率
the steepest slope,
呈線性
then doubling the size
那么當體型翻倍
you would require double the amount of energy.
所需能量也隨之翻倍
But it's sublinear, and what that translates into
而若呈次線性，情況則是
is that, if you double the size of the organism,
當生物的體型翻倍
you actually only need 75 percent more energy.
它實際只需增加75%的能量
So a wonderful thing about all of biology
生物的奇妙之處就在于
is that it expresses an extraordinary economy of scale.
它巧妙地展現了經濟的伸展能力
The bigger you are systematically,
根據準確定義的規律
according to very well-defined rules,
一個系統越大
less energy per capita.
其所需的平均能力越少
Now any physiological variable you can think of,
你能夠想到的任何變量
any life history event you can think of,
任何歷史事件
if you plot it this way, looks like this.
只要你照著這樣制表，都會得到相似的圖形
There is an extraordinary regularity.
其一致性非常驚人
So you tell me the size of a mammal,
只要你說出一種哺乳動物的體型
I can tell you at the 90 percent level everything about it
我就能告訴你關于其生理和生命周期等情況
in terms of its physiology, life history, etc.
正確率90%
And the reason for this is because of networks.
原因就在于網絡
All of life is controlled by networks --
所有生命都由網絡所控制
from the intracellular through the multicellular
不論是單細胞還是多細胞生物
through the ecosystem level.
整個生態系統都是如此
And you're very familiar with these networks.
你對這些網絡并不陌生
That's a little thing that lives inside an elephant.
這是生長在大象體內的一種小生物
And here's the summary of what I'm saying.
這是我講話內容的總結
If you take those networks,
你有了這些網絡
this idea of networks,
網絡的概念
and you apply universal principles,
再用上普遍原理
mathematizable, universal principles,
數學化的普遍原理
all of these scalings
所有規模增長
and all of these constraints follow,
所有限制因素
including the description of the forest,
包括森林的情況
the description of your circulatory system,
你循環系統的情況
the description within cells.
細胞內部情況等
One of the things I did not stress in that introduction
我在介紹中沒有提及的一點是
was that, systematically, the pace of life
生長的節奏會隨著你體型的增大
decreases as you get bigger.
而系統性地減緩
Heart rates are slower; you live longer;
心率會減緩，你活得更久
diffusion of oxygen and resources
通過細胞膜的氧氣
across membranes is slower, etc.
和物質的流動減緩
The question is: Is any of this true
問題是，這是否
for cities and companies?
也適用于城市和企業
So is London a scaled up Birmingham,
倫敦是否是長大了的伯明翰
which is a scaled up Brighton, etc., etc.?
而伯明翰是否是長大了的布萊頓，等等
Is New York a scaled up San Francisco,
紐約是否是長大了的舊金山
which is a scaled up Santa Fe?
而舊金山是否是長大了的圣達菲
Don't know. We will discuss that.
不知道，我們稍候再討論
But they are networks,
但它們都是網絡
and the most important network of cities
而城市最重要的網絡
is you.
就是你
Cities are just a physical manifestation
城市只是
of your interactions,
你我社會活動
our interactions,
以及個體相互聚攏集合的
and the clustering and grouping of individuals.
物質表現
Here's just a symbolic picture of that.
這只是一張簡易圖表
And here's scaling of cities.
這是城市規模的擴大
This shows that in this very simple example,
這幅圖顯示出了一個非常簡單的例子
which happens to be a mundane example
這例子很尋常
of number of petrol stations
加油站的數量
as a function of size --
作為規模
plotted in the same way as the biology --
按照同于生物的方法制表
you see exactly the same kind of thing.
你能夠觀察到一模一樣的結果
There is a scaling.
上面顯示了增長的趨勢
That is that the number of petrol stations in the city
你告訴我城市的規模
is now given to you
我就能夠說出
when you tell me its size.
這座城市有多少個加油站
The slope of that is less than linear.
斜率呈次線性
There is an economy of scale.
這是規模經濟
Less petrol stations per capita the bigger you are -- not surprising.
城市越大，人均加油站數量就越小，并不稀奇
But here's what's surprising.
稀奇的在這里
It scales in the same way everywhere.
增長的規律在哪里都適用
This is just European countries,
這反映的只是歐洲國家的情況
but you do it in Japan or China or Colombia,
但如果你用同樣的方法觀察日本，中國或哥倫比亞
always the same
結果都是一樣的
with the same kind of economy of scale
同樣的規模經濟
to the same degree.
同樣的水平
And any infrastructure you look at --
而且，你看到的所有基礎設施
whether it's the length of roads, length of electrical lines --
不論是道路還是電線的長度
anything you look at
不論是什么
has the same economy of scale scaling in the same way.
都存在增長模式相同的規模經濟
It's an integrated system
這個綜合體系
that has evolved despite all the planning and so on.
不停演進，無論如何規劃都是如此
But even more surprising
而當你看到
is if you look at socio-economic quantities,
社會經濟數量
quantities that have no analog in biology,
即八千到一萬年前
that have evolved when we started forming communities
我們開始建立社區時的社會經濟數量
eight to 10,000 years ago.
你們會感到更加意外
The top one is wages as a function of size
上圖以工資作為規模參數
plotted in the same way.
同理制表
And the bottom one is you lot --
而下面的是“你”
super-creatives plotted in the same way.
也就是超級智能人，同理制表
And what you see
上面顯示出
is a scaling phenomenon.
一個規模增長的現象
But most important in this,
但圖上最重要的是
the exponent, the analog to that three-quarters
新陳代謝率的冪
for the metabolic rate,
近似于三分之四
is bigger than one -- it's about 1.15 to 1.2.
大于1,大約在1.15和1.2之間
Here it is,
意思是
which says that the bigger you are
規模越大
the more you have per capita, unlike biology --
人均數就越多，與生物學的情況相反
higher wages, more super-creative people per capita as you get bigger,
工資越高，就有越多的超級智能人出現
more patents per capita, more crime per capita.
人均專利和犯罪率越高
And we've looked at everything:
我們研究了所有事物
more AIDS cases, flu, etc.
艾滋病病例，流感等等
And here, they're all plotted together.
把這些都放在一起制成表
Just to show you what we plotted,
讓你們看到
here is income, GDP --
我們把收入 GDP
GDP of the city --
城市的GDP
crime and patents all on one graph.
犯罪和專利都放在一張圖上
And you can see, they all follow the same line.
你們可以看到
And here's the statement.
下面是圖的表述
If you double the size of a city from 100,000 to 200,000,
如果一個城市的規模從10萬增長至20萬
from a million to two million, 10 to 20 million,
從一百萬到兩百萬，從一千萬到兩千萬
it doesn't matter,
都一樣
then systematically
在這個城市中
you get a 15 percent increase
工資，財富，艾滋病病例
in wages, wealth, number of AIDS cases,
警察人數
number of police,
任何你能想到的事物
anything you can think of.
都會系統地增加15%
