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It goes up by 15 percent,
對于所有事物都是如此
and you have a 15 percent savings
你還能節省
on the infrastructure.
15%的基礎設施經費
This, no doubt, is the reason
這無疑就是
why a million people a week are gathering in cities.
城市每周新增一百萬人口的原因
Because they think that all those wonderful things --
他們覺得那些美好的事物
like creative people, wealth, income --
包括創新人才，財富，收入
is what attracts them,
對他們有吸引力
forgetting about the ugly and the bad.
而忘記了城市丑惡的一面
What is the reason for this?
原因何在
Well I don't have time to tell you about all the mathematics,
我沒有時間跟大家解釋其中的數學
but underlying this is the social networks,
社會網絡是其基礎
because this is a universal phenomenon.
因為這是個普遍現象
This 15 percent rule
這個15%的規律
is true
是真的
no matter where you are on the planet --
無論你在地球上哪個角落
Japan, Chile,
日本，智利
Portugal, Scotland, doesn't matter.
葡萄牙，蘇格蘭，都一樣
Always, all the data shows it's the same,
盡管城市的發展是各自獨立的
despite the fact that these cities have evolved independently.
然而所有數據顯示的結果都是一樣的
Something universal is going on.
這里蘊藏著一個普遍的規律
The universality, to repeat, is us --
普遍性在于我們
that we are the city.
我們就是城市
And it is our interactions and the clustering of those interactions.
城市是我們相互活動以及這些活動的匯集
So there it is, I've said it again.
我剛才說過了
So if it is those networks and their mathematical structure,
那些網絡和它們的數學結構
unlike biology, which had sublinear scaling,
與呈次線性的生物界不同
economies of scale,
生物是規模經濟
you had the slowing of the pace of life
會隨著規模的增大
as you get bigger.
而減緩生長的速度
If it's social networks with super-linear scaling --
如果城市的社會網絡呈現超線性
more per capita --
人均數值越高
then the theory says
那么依照原理
that you increase the pace of life.
生長速度便會增加
The bigger you are, life gets faster.
你長得越大，生長速度就越快
On the left is the heart rate showing biology.
左邊是心率
On the right is the speed of walking
右邊是行走的速度
in a bunch of European cities,
在許多歐洲城市
showing that increase.
顯示這樣的增長情況
Lastly, I want to talk about growth.
最后，我想談談增長
This is what we had in biology, just to repeat.
在重復一下，這是生物學的情況
Economies of scale
規模經濟
gave rise to this sigmoidal behavior.
使之呈現反曲現象
You grow fast and then stop --
你快速生長接著停止生長
part of our resilience.
這是我們回復力的表現
That would be bad for economies and cities.
這對經濟和城市都不利
And indeed, one of the wonderful things about the theory
說實在的，這個原理奇妙之處之一在于
is that if you have super-linear scaling
如果財富創造和創新的
from wealth creation and innovation,
規模增長呈超線性
then indeed you get, from the same theory,
那么根據同一理論，你必定會得到
a beautiful rising exponential curve -- lovely.
一條美妙的正態曲線，漂亮極了
And in fact, if you compare it to data,
實際上，如果你把它與數據進行對比
it fits very well
它非常符合
with the development of cities and economies.
城市與經濟的發展情況
But it has a terrible catch,
然而，它存在著一個致命局限
and the catch
這個局限就是
is that this system is destined to collapse.
這個系統注定會崩潰
And it's destined to collapse for many reasons --
它之所以注定會崩潰，原因有很多
kind of Malthusian reasons -- that you run out of resources.
多少出于此消彼長的原因，資源枯竭了
And how do you avoid that? Well we've done it before.
如何避免這種情況呢，我們曾嘗試過
What we do is,
我們所做的是
as we grow and we approach the collapse,
當我們發展到接近崩潰的階段
a major innovation takes place
一項重大的創新出現了
and we start over again,
我們又從新開始
and we start over again as we approach the next one, and so on.
向下一個目標靠近，以此類推
So there's this continuous cycle of innovation
所以這個周而復始的創新周期
that is necessary
對于維系發展
in order to sustain growth and avoid collapse.
避免崩潰，是十分必要的
The catch, however, to this
然而，這一局限
is that you have to innovate
要求你必須
faster and faster and faster.
不斷加速創新
So the image
所以，情況就是
is that we're not only on a treadmill that's going faster,
我們不僅坐在一架高速運轉的機器上
but we have to change the treadmill faster and faster.
我們還必須加速對機器的更新
We have to accelerate on a continuous basis.
我們必須不停地加速
And the question is: Can we, as socio-economic beings,
問題是，作為社會經濟的存在
avoid a heart attack?
我們能夠避免心臟病發作嗎
So lastly, I'm going to finish up in this last minute or two
最后，我會花一兩分鐘
asking about companies.
看看公司的情況
See companies, they scale.
公司的規模不斷增大
The top one, in fact, is Walmart on the right.
上面右邊的是沃爾瑪
It's the same plot.
同樣的圖表
This happens to be income and assets
這張圖顯示的是收入和資產
versus the size of the company as denoted by its number of employees.
比上公司規模，即員工人數
We could use sales, anything you like.
我們還可以用銷售量，什么都行
There it is: after some little fluctuations at the beginning,
看，當公司進行革新
when companies are innovating,
一開始出現輕微浮動
they scale beautifully.
它們長勢良好
And we've looked at 23,000 companies
我們觀察了23000家
in the United States, may I say.
美國境內的企業
And I'm only showing you a little bit of this.
我今天展示給大家的只是冰山一角
What is astonishing about companies
企業令人意想不到的地方是
is that they scale sublinearly
是它們的規模增長呈次線性
like biology,
就像生物學的情況一樣
indicating that they're dominated,
這表明主導它們的
not by super-linear
并不是超線性的
innovation and ideas;
創新活動和思想
they become dominated
主導它們的
by economies of scale.
是規模經濟
In that interpretation,
具體說來
by bureaucracy and administration,
就是官僚主義和行政部門
and they do it beautifully, may I say.
可以說，它們干得很棒
So if you tell me the size of some company, some small company,
所以，如果你告訴我某個小企業的規模
I could have predicted the size of Walmart.
我就可以估摸出沃爾瑪的規模
If it has this sublinear scaling,
如果其規模的增長呈次線性
the theory says
依照原理
we should have sigmoidal growth.
我們應該會得到一個S型的增長
There's Walmart. Doesn't look very sigmoidal.
這是沃爾瑪，看起來并不十分像個S
That's what we like, hockey sticks.
我們喜歡這個形狀，冰球棍
But you notice, I've cheated,
但如果你仔細看，我其實做了手腳
because I've only gone up to '94.
因為我展示的部分只到94年
Let's go up to 2008.
我們看看到了2008年情況如何
That red line is from the theory.
紅線表示的是理論上的預測
So if I'd have done this in 1994,
如果我1994年開始制表
I could have predicted what Walmart would be now.
我就能夠預測到沃爾瑪現在的情況
And then this is repeated
這個情況
across the entire spectrum of companies.
在所有公司的生命周期中不斷重復
There they are. That's 23,000 companies.
這些就是所有23000家公司
They all start looking like hockey sticks,
它們一開始都呈現冰球棍的形狀
they all bend over,
接著都彎下來了
and they all die like you and me.
最后它們就像你我一樣難逃一死
Thank you.
謝謝大家
