評論
打印
So here's two questions
每當我思考這個問題
that I have in my head when I think about this problem.
兩個疑問一直在我腦子里打轉
The first is:
第一
Are cities part of biology?
城市是生物界的一部分嗎
Is London a great big whale?
倫敦是一只大鯨魚嗎
Is Edinburgh a horse?
愛丁堡是一匹馬嗎
Is Microsoft a great big anthill?
微軟是一座巨型蟻山嗎
What do we learn from that?
我們從中能得到什么啟發
We use them metaphorically --
我們可以使用比喻
the DNA of a company, the metabolism of a city, and so on --
一個公司的DNA，一個城市的新陳代謝，等等
is that just bullshit, metaphorical bullshit,
這些都是胡扯，亂七八糟的比喻
or is there serious substance to it?
還是有嚴謹的依據
And if that is the case,
如果確有依據
how come that it's very hard to kill a city?
為什么城市總是生生不息呢
You could drop an atom bomb on a city,
你可以扔一個原子彈炸毀一個城市
and 30 years later it's surviving.
而30年之后，它依然存在
Very few cities fail.
消亡的城市寥寥無幾
All companies die, all companies.
而所有公司都會關門，無一例外
And if you have a serious theory, you should be able to predict
如果你掌握了縝密的原理，你就應該可以預測
when Google is going to go bust.
谷歌什么時候關門大吉
So is that just another version
這是不是
of this?
這個畫面的翻版
Well we understand this very well.
我們對此非常清楚
That is, you ask any generic question about this --
如果你隨便問一個常識問題
how many trees of a given size,
某已知體積的大樹有多少棵
how many branches of a given size does a tree have,
一顆體積已知的大樹有多少分枝
how many leaves,
多少樹葉
what is the energy flowing through each branch,
每根樹枝中流動的能量是什么
what is the size of the canopy,
樹冠有多大
what is its growth, what is its mortality?
它長勢如何，壽命多長
We have a mathematical framework
我們有一套數學體系
based on generic universal principles
建立在普遍原理的基礎上
that can answer those questions.
它能夠解答那些問題
And the idea is can we do the same for this?
問題是，它是否適用于城市
So the route in is recognizing
首先我們要認識到
one of the most extraordinary things about life,
生命最奇妙之處，其中之一
is that it is scalable,
就是它是會長大的
it works over an extraordinary range.
它能夠長到非常之大
This is just a tiny range actually:
這只是很小的一個尺度
It's us mammals;
這是我們，哺乳動物
we're one of these.
我們是其中之一
The same principles, the same dynamics,
相同的原理，相同的活動
the same organization is at work
相同的組織，在所有這些動物中
in all of these, including us,
發揮著作用，我們也包括在內
and it can scale over a range of 100 million in size.
它能夠長大到一億個單位
And that is one of the main reasons
生命如此周而復始，欣欣向榮
life is so resilient and robust --
這就是原因之一
scalability.
伸展性
We're going to discuss that in a moment more.
我們一會再討論這個
But you know, at a local level,
從我們自身出發
you scale; everybody in this room is scaled.
你會長大，在座所有人的身體都長大了
That's called growth.
這就是成長
Here's how you grew.
你就是這么成長的
Rat, that's a rat -- could have been you.
這是一只老鼠，也可以是你
We're all pretty much the same.
我們之間非常相似
And you see, you're very familiar with this.
你們可以看到，你的情況與之十分相似
You grow very quickly and then you stop.
你長得很快，接著停止生長
And that line there
上面的那條線
is a prediction from the same theory,
是同一理論推導出來的
based on the same principles,
所依據的原理
that describes that forest.
與描述森林的原理相同
And here it is for the growth of a rat,
這顯示的是老鼠的生長情況
and those points on there are data points.
上面的點是數據點
This is just the weight versus the age.
即體重與年齡的比例
And you see, it stops growing.
你看，它停止生長了
Very, very good for biology --
這對生物界非常有益
also one of the reasons for its great resilience.
這也證明了其強大的伸展性
Very, very bad
但對我們目前規劃中的
for economies and companies and cities
經濟，公司和城市而而言
in our present paradigm.
這是非常糟糕的
This is what we believe.
我們就是這么認為的
This is what our whole economy
這就是我們的經濟
is thrusting upon us,
強加給我們的
particularly illustrated in that left-hand corner:
左上角的圖表凸顯了這一點
hockey sticks.
冰球棍
This is a bunch of software companies --
它顯示的是眾多軟件公司
and what it is is their revenue versus their age --
收入與公司建立時間的比例
all zooming away,
它們都平步青云
and everybody making millions and billions of dollars.
每家公司都大把大把地撈錢
Okay, so how do we understand this?
那么，我們如何解讀
So let's first talk about biology.
我們先來討論一下生物學
This is explicitly showing you
這讓你清清楚楚地看到
how things scale,
事物的規模是如何增大的
and this is a truly remarkable graph.
這幅圖表意義非凡
What is plotted here is metabolic rate --
上面顯示的是新陳代謝率
how much energy you need per day to stay alive --
為維持生命你每天需要攝入的能量
versus your weight, your mass,
比上你的體重
for all of us bunch of organisms.
這適用于人類以及許多其它生物
And it's plotted in this funny way by going up by factors of 10,
它的結構很有意思，以10倍遞進
otherwise you couldn't get everything on the graph.
否則你無法看到全局
And what you see if you plot it
在這樣一個有意思的圖標中
in this slightly curious way
你可以看到
is that everybody lies on the same line.
每個人都落在了同一條線上
Despite the fact that this is the most complex and diverse system
盡管這是宇宙中
in the universe,
最為紛繁復雜的系統
there's an extraordinary simplicity
但它顯示了一個
being expressed by this.
極為簡單現象
It's particularly astonishing
這令人震驚
because each one of these organisms,
這上面的每個物種
each subsystem, each cell type, each gene,
每個子系統，每個細胞種類，每個基因
has evolved in its own unique environmental niche
都在其獨特的生態位和歷史中
with its own unique history.
得到進化發展
And yet, despite all of that Darwinian evolution
然而，即使經過了達爾文派支持的進化論
and natural selection,
和自然選擇
they've been constrained to lie on a line.
它們最終還是集中到了一條線上
Something else is going on.
還有其它力量在發揮作用
