I thought I would start with a very brief
我覺得我得從城市的歷史
history of cities.
簡單說起
Settlements typically began
人們聚井而居
with people clustered around a well, and the size
揭開了典型的定居生活
of that settlement was roughly the distance you could walk
而這種定居的范圍,也不過是你頭頂著一盆水
with a pot of water on your head.
所能走的距離罷了
In fact, if you fly over Germany, for example,
其實,假如你能從德國上空飛過
and you look down and you see these hundreds
往下看,你會看到數以百計的小村莊
of little villages, they're all about a mile apart.
每個距離約一英里
You needed easy access to the fields.
這樣你就到地里去就很方便了
And for hundreds, even thousands of years,
幾百幾千年以來
the home was really the center of life.
家就是生活的中心
Life was very small for most people.
所以對大多數人來說,生活范圍其實很小
It was the center of entertainment, of energy production,
家是歡樂,動力
of work, the center of health care.
工作,和醫療的中心
That's where babies were born and people died.
在那里,也有生老病死
Then, with industrialization, everything started
之后工業化的興起,
to become centralized.
一切開始變得集中起來
You had dirty factories that were moved
那些污濁不堪的工廠
to the outskirts of cities.
都搬到了郊外
Production was centralized in assembly plants.
產品也都被集中到裝配廠
You had centralized energy production.
我們還把能源生產也集中起來
Learning took place in schools. Health care took place
學校是學習用的
in hospitals.
醫院是治病用的
And then you had networks that developed.
然后網絡也發展起來了
You had water, sewer networks that allowed for this
供水管網,污水管網也使得
kind of unchecked expansion.
不斷的擴張成為了可能
You had separated functions, increasingly.
慢慢地,我們把不同的職能給區分開來
You had rail networks that connected residential,
鐵路網連接到了住宅區
industrial, commercial areas. You had auto networks.
工業區和商業區,汽車交通網也建立起來了
In fact, the model was really, give everybody a car,
事實上,這個模式就是,給每人一輛車
build roads to everything, and give people a place to park
把路給修起來,然后在人們停車的地方
when they get there. It was not a very functional model.
弄個車庫,其實這并不是一個行得通的模式
And we still live in that world,
但我們依舊生活在這樣的環境下
and this is what we end up with.
所以這就是我們所得到的
So you have the sprawl of LA,
所以就有了洛杉磯的擴展區
the sprawl of Mexico City.
墨西哥城的擴展區
You have these unbelievable new cities in China
在中國匪夷所思般崛起了各種新城市
which you might call tower sprawl.
也可以稱為“雨后春筍”
They're all building cities on the model that we invented
他們都是基于我們在50年代或60年代發明的模式
in the '50s and '60s, which is really obsolete, I would argue,
在建城市,我覺得這樣是跟不上時代的
and there are hundreds and hundreds of new cities
而此時此刻,不計其數的城市
that are being planned all over the world.
正在世界各地緊鑼密鼓籌備興建
In China alone, 300 million people,
單中國來說,3億人口,
some say 400 million people,
有的說4億
will move to the city over the next 15 years.
將會在接下來的15年里搬遷到城市里
That means building the entire, the equivalent
這就等同于要美國
of the entire built infrastructure of the U.S. in 15 years.
在15年內建造起整個國家基礎設施
Imagine that.
想象一下
And we should all care about this
我們都應該關注一下
whether you live in cities or not.
不管你是否住在城里
Cities will account for 90 percent of the population growth,
城市主宰著90%的人口增長
80 percent of the global CO2, 75 percent of energy use,
全球80%的CO2,75%的能源消費
but at the same time it's where people want to be,
同時,也是人們向往的地方
increasingly.
這情況與日劇增
More than half the people now in the world live in cities,
現在世界上一半以上的人口住在城市里
and that will just continue to escalate.
而且還會不斷增加
Cities are places of celebration, personal expression.
城市是人們慶祝和表現的地方
You have the flash mobs of pillow fights that a”
城市里有枕頭大戰的快閃族——
I've been to a couple. They're quite fun.
我去過幾次,還真有趣。
You have”
還有——
Cities are where most of the wealth is created,
城市是大部分財富的來源
and particularly in the developing world,
尤其是在發展中國家
it's where women find opportunities. That's
婦女也能擁有各種機遇,所以
a lot of the reason why cities are growing very quickly.
有很多原因可以解釋為何城市發展如此快速
Now there's some trends that will impact cities.
但某些趨勢會影響到城市
First of all, work is becoming distributed and mobile.
首先,工作遵循分配模式而且不再一成不變
The office building is basically obsolete
辦公大樓基本淘汰了
for doing private work.
私人的工作
The home, once again, because of distributed computation --
由于有了分布式通信和分布式計算
communication, is becoming a center of life,
家,再一次成為了生活的中心
so it's a center of production and learning and shopping
家成為了生產,學習,購物,還有醫療
and health care and all of these things that we used
還有那些我們認為
to think of as taking place outside of the home.
都是在家外發生的一切的中心
And increasingly, everything that people buy,
漸漸地,所有人們買的東西
every consumer product, in one way or another,
所有的消費品,通過不同的方式
can be personalized.
都能夠實現個性化
And that's a very important trend to think about.
這是值得關注的一個重要趨勢
So this is my image of the city of the future.
這就是我想象中的未來城市
In that it's a place for people, you know.
圖中那里就是人們可以待的地方
Maybe not the way people dress, but --
人們的衣著可能不會是這樣,但
You know, the question now is, how can we have all
要知道,現在的問題是,我們要如何
the good things that we identify with cities
對于城市帶給我們的產物
without all the bad things?
做到取其精華去其糟粕呢?
This is Bangalore. It took me a couple of hours
這兒是班加羅爾,在去年的時候
to get a few miles in Bangalore last year.
我花了好幾小時才在班加羅爾移動了幾英里
So with cities, you also have congestion and pollution
所以在城市里,有擁擠和污染
and disease and all these negative things.
有疾病還有很多負面的東西
How can we have the good stuff without the bad?
怎樣取其精華去其糟粕呢?
So we went back and started looking at the great cities
我們暫且回頭看看那么比較不錯的城市吧
that evolved before the cars.
在有了汽車之前的狀態
Paris was a series of these little villages
巴黎就是由好些小村莊
that came together, and you still see that structure today.
合并而成的,這種分布結構你今天還可以看得出來
The 20 arrondissements of Paris
巴黎的20個區
are these little neighborhoods.
就像20個小鄰居
Most of what people need in life can be
大多數人們的生活所需
within a five- or 10-minute walk.
或許就在5到10分鐘的步行范圍里
And if you look at the data, when you have that kind
如果你去看那些數據,當你建立了
of a structure, you get a very even distribution
這種結構后,巴黎的商店
of the shops and the physicians and the pharmacies
內科醫生,藥房,還有咖啡廳
and the cafes in Paris.
都會很平均地分布在城市中
And then you look at cities that evolved after
之后你再看那些擁有了汽車后的城市
the automobile, and it's not that kind of a pattern.
他們就完全不是這個模式了
There's very little that's within a five minute walk
像匹茲堡,大部分地方
of most areas of places like Pittsburgh.
很少再有幾步之遙的生活了
Not to pick on Pittsburgh, but most American cities
不單是匹茲堡,大部分美國的城市
really have evolved this way.
都演變成這個樣了