評論
打印
Cities are the crucible of civilization.
城市是文明的熔爐
They have been expanding,
它們一直在擴張
urbanization has been expanding,
城市化的擴張速度
at an exponential rate in the last 200 years
在過去的200年里變得越來越快
so that by the second part of this century,
到了本世紀下半葉
the planet will be completely dominated
整個地球都將被城市
by cities.
所主宰
Cities are the origins of global warming,
城市是全球變暖的源頭
impact on the environment,
影響著環境
health, pollution, disease,
衛生，污染，疾病
finance,
金融
economies, energy
經濟，能源
they're all problems
這些問題
that are confronted by having cities.
都是由城市引起的
That's where all these problems come from.
這是所有這些問題的源頭
And the tsunami of problems that we feel we're facing
我們感覺可持續性方面的問題
in terms of sustainability questions
正如海嘯般撲面而來
are actually a reflection
而這些問題實際上
of the exponential increase
是與日俱增的
in urbanization across the planet.
全球城市化進程所產生的效應
Here's some numbers.
我們來看幾個數字
was less than a few percent urbanized.
城市化程度不到百分之幾而已
It's now more than 82 percent.
而現在則超過了82%
The planet has crossed the halfway mark a few years ago.
全球的城市化程度在幾年前就超過了百分之五十
China's building 300 new cities
中國在將來的20年內
in the next 20 years.
建設300座新城市
Now listen to this:
請注意
Every week for the foreseeable future,
在將來的每一周
until 2050,
一直到2050年
every week more than a million people
每一周，將有100萬人
are being added to our cities.
進入我們的城市
This is going to affect everything.
這將對一切產生影響
Everybody in this room, if you stay alive,
在座的各位，如果你一直活著
is going to be affected
你就必定要受到
by what's happening in cities
城市化所帶來的
in this extraordinary phenomenon.
翻天覆地的影響
However, cities,
然而，城市
despite having this negative aspect to them,
盡管存在負面效應
are also the solution.
但城市也是問題解決的出路
Because cities are the vacuum cleaners and the magnets
這是因為城市是除塵器和吸鐵石
that have sucked up creative people,
吸納了所有創意人才
creating ideas, innovation,
創造著思想，革新
wealth and so on.
財富等等
So we have this kind of dual nature.
我們具有這樣的雙面性
And so there's an urgent need
我們迫切需要運用
for a scientific theory of cities.
城市的科學原理
Now these are my comrades in arms.
這些是我全副武裝的同志們
This work has been done with an extraordinary group of people,
這群杰出的人士做了這些工作
and they've done all the work,
都是他們的功勞
and I'm the great bullshitter
我只會胡吹海侃
that tries to bring it all together.
做個總體介紹
So here's the problem: This is what we all want.
這里有個問題，這是我們希望的結果
The 10 billion people on the planet in 2050
到了2050年，地球上的10億人
want to live in places like this,
都想生活在這樣的地方
having things like this,
擁有這些東西
doing things like this,
進行這樣的活動
with economies that are growing like this,
在這樣的經濟增長情況下
not realizing that entropy
而沒有意識到
produces things like this,
人口過剩會造成這樣
this, this
這樣，這樣
and this.
和這樣的情況
And the question is:
問題是
Is that what Edinburgh and London and New York
愛丁堡，倫敦和紐約
are going to look like in 2050,
到了2050年會變成這樣
or is it going to be this?
還是這樣
That's the question.
這是個問題
I must say, many of the indicators
我不得不說，許多這樣的參數
look like this is what it's going to look like,
似乎更可能是它們將來的樣子
but let's talk about it.
我們來探討一下
So my provocative statement
我敢大膽地說
is that we desperately need a serious scientific theory of cities.
我們急需一個嚴謹的城市科學理論
And scientific theory means quantifiable --
科學理論意味著它是可量化的
relying on underlying generic principles
依據基本的普遍原理
that can be made into a predictive framework.
我們能夠推導出一個可預見的結構
That's the quest.
這是我們的目標
Is that conceivable?
這可能嗎
Are there universal laws?
有這樣的普遍定律嗎
