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Finance & economics
財經(jīng)版塊
Buttonwood
梧桐樹專欄
Betting the house
押注房子
How fixed-rate mortgages transform retail savers into hedge-fund managers.
固定利率房貸如何把零散儲戶變成對沖基金經(jīng)理。
As financial decisions go, borrowing several times your annual earnings to buy a risky asset is a pretty big one.
就財務(wù)決策而言，借入相當(dāng)于年收入好幾倍的錢去購買高風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)，這無疑是個相當(dāng)重大的決定。
Yet for many people, taking out a mortgage to buy a house is something of a no-brainer.
然而對許多人來說，貸款買房幾乎是件不假思索的事。
It generally involves less agonising than, say, how much to save for retirement, or how to split your pot between cash, stocks and bonds.
貸款買房通常不像為退休存多少錢，或者在現(xiàn)金、股票、債券之間如何分配資金那樣令人糾結(jié)。
One reason is that, some short-lived slumps aside, house prices across the rich world have been buoyant since the 1950s.
一個原因是，除了一些短暫的下跌，自20世紀(jì)50年代以來，富裕國家的房價一直看漲。
More important, you need to live somewhere.
更重要的是，你需要有個住的地方。
Until you own a place, you have a natural short position in property, because you need to inhabit one for the rest of your life (whether you rent or eventually buy).
在你擁有自己的房產(chǎn)之前，你在房地產(chǎn)市場天然是空頭，因為你余生都需要住在一套房子里（無論你是租房還是最終買房）。（注：空頭不持有資產(chǎn)，是借來資產(chǎn)賣出，等股價下跌時再買入并歸還資產(chǎn)，從而賺取差價，空頭對價格看跌。）
Short positions are risky (who knows how far rents and prices might rise?).
空頭風(fēng)險很大（誰知道房租和房價會漲到多高呢？）。
Buying a home closes the position, resulting in a neutral one; unlike other investments, it is not really a bet on where prices are headed.
購房即平倉，結(jié)果是中性倉位狀態(tài)，與其他投資不同，買房并非真正押注價格走勢。（注：平倉即執(zhí)行相反交易，空頭是買入資產(chǎn)，多頭是賣出資產(chǎn)，目的是鎖定利益或止損。）
The mortgage is an unfortunate necessity for those who lack the cash to buy outright, rather than a deliberate punt on the future path of interest rates.
房貸是那些無法全款買房的人的不得已選擇，而非對利率未來走勢的有意押注。
Thinking about a mortgage as a component in the borrower’s investment portfolio might therefore seem odd.
因此，將房貸視為借款人投資組合中的一個組成部分可能顯得奇怪。
It should not.
但不應(yīng)該感到奇怪。
After all, a fixed-rate mortgage looks rather like a bond, while one with a floating rate resembles the sort of corporate loan often extended by banks and private-credit funds.
畢竟，固定利率房貸看起來很像債券，而浮動利率房貸則類似于銀行和私人信貸基金經(jīng)常發(fā)放的那種企業(yè)貸款。
In other words, the mortgage-laden investor has not only closed their natural short exposure to property.
換句話說，背負房貸的投資者不僅平掉了他們在房地產(chǎn)市場的天然空頭。
They have also opened a new short position in an asset similar to those that, elsewhere, they may hold long positions in.
而且他們還在另一種資產(chǎn)上新建了空頭頭寸，而對于其他地方的類似資產(chǎn)，他們可能持有多頭頭寸。
In many cases—think of most first-time buyers—it will be the investor’s biggest position by far, offsetting any opposing ones and then some.
在許多情況下——比如大多數(shù)首次購房者——這將是投資者迄今為止最大的持倉，足以抵消任何相反的持倉，甚至還有余力。
Taking out a mortgage can transform your portfolio.
申請房貸可以改變你的投資組合。
Fixed-rate mortgages can alter a portfolio’s value the most.
固定利率房貸對投資組合價值的影響最大。
Borrowers are accustomed to seeing just the outstanding balance, which climbs as interest accrues and declines with repayments.
借款人習(xí)慣于只看到未償還的余額，這一數(shù)字會隨著利息累積而上升，并隨著還款而下降。
But the mortgage’s true value changes in the same way as that of a bond: it rises when market interest rates fall (meaning the borrower loses out) and vice versa.
但房貸的真實價值與債券價值的變化方式相同：當(dāng)市場利率下降時，其價值上升（意味著借款人遭受損失），反之亦然。
This seems counterintuitive when the interest and repayments are fixed.
當(dāng)利息和還款額固定時，這似乎有違直覺。
It happens because, though future repayments stay constant when interest rates change, their value in the present does not—which illustrates a concept known as the “time value” of money.
這是因為盡管利率變化時未來的還款額保持不變，但還款額的當(dāng)前價值會發(fā)生變化——這說明了貨幣“時間價值”的概念。
The promise of $1 in a year’s time is worth less than $1 today, since today the dollar can be deposited in a bank account and earn a year’s interest.
一年后的一美元不如今天的一美元值錢，因為今天的一美元可以存入銀行賬戶并賺取一年的利息。
Conversely, if interest rates fall, a commitment to pay a series of fixed sums in the future, as in a fixed-rate mortgage, becomes a bigger liability today.
反之，如果利率下降，在未來支付一系列固定金額（固定利率房貸就是這種情況）就會成為當(dāng)下更沉重的負擔(dān)。
This is also why the market prices of bonds rise when interest rates fall.
這也是為什么當(dāng)利率下降時，債券的市場價格會上漲。
By similar reasoning, though a floating-rate mortgage carries the risk of rising repayments, these do not change the portfolio’s value.
同理，雖然浮動利率房貸存在還款額上升的風(fēng)險，但這些還款額并不會改變投資組合的價值。
If interest rates climb, future repayments climb with them.
如果利率上升，未來的還款額會隨之增加。
At the same time, the present value of each future dollar falls by the same amount.
與此同時，未來每一美元的當(dāng)前價值也以相同幅度下降。
The trade-off is that the investor must find the cash to meet higher repayments—perhaps by eating into returns from the rest of the portfolio.
需要權(quán)衡的是，投資者必須籌措資金應(yīng)對更高的還款額——或許需要動用投資組合中其他部分的收益。
Where does this leave the borrower’s broader portfolio?
這對借款人的整體投資組合意味著什么？
The short position created by a fixed-rate mortgage can dramatically change an investor’s overall exposure.
固定利率房貸產(chǎn)生的空頭頭寸會顯著改變投資者的整體風(fēng)險敞口。
If their savings follow the classic 60/40 split between stocks and bonds, for instance, but they have a fixed-rate mortgage worth 20% of their savings, their “true” allocation is more like 60/20.
例如，如果他們的儲蓄按照經(jīng)典的六四開分配于股票和債券，但他們還有一筆相當(dāng)于儲蓄20%的固定利率房貸，那么他們的“真實”分配比例更接近六二開。
This effect is reduced by quirks of individual markets, such as America’s and Denmark’s, which generally allow borrowers to repay mortgages early without a penalty if rates have moved against them (since this makes their debt less bond-like).
個別市場的特殊規(guī)定削弱了這種影響，例如美國和丹麥的市場通常允許借款人在利率走勢不利時提前償還房貸而無需支付罰金（這使得他們的債務(wù)不那么像債券）。
For investors whose mortgages are large compared with their savings—think again of first-time buyers—the effect is far greater.
對于那些房貸遠高于儲蓄的投資者——尤其是首次購房者——影響要大得多。
If the short position created by a fixed-rate mortgage is bigger than the value of your savings, for instance, you cannot have a net positive exposure to bonds, however many you buy.
例如，如果固定利率房貸產(chǎn)生的空頭頭寸大于你的儲蓄價值，那么無論你購買多少債券，都無法獲得凈正敞口。
Instead, your portfolio will look rather like those of the more daring hedge funds: leveraged to the hilt on one side, and long stocks and their outsize returns on the other.
相反，你的投資組合會更像那些更大膽的對沖基金：一邊是杠桿用到極致，另一邊則是做多股票及其超額回報。
This is a cheery way of looking at things.
這是一種樂觀的態(tài)度。
Unlike the hedge fund, a stockmarket crash will not make you bust, since the debt is secured against your house, not your shares.
與對沖基金不同，股市崩盤不會讓你破產(chǎn)，因為債務(wù)是以你的房子而非股票作為擔(dān)保的。
Perhaps being saddled with a mortgage is not so bad, after all.
因此，或許背負房貸也沒那么糟糕。
