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財經版塊
Commodity markets
大宗商品市場
Soldering on
繼續焊接（注：化用soldier on，意為“保持堅挺”。）
Tin, an unloved critical metal, is enjoying a boom.
錫，一種不受喜愛的關鍵礦產迎來繁榮。
The metal has been used since ancient times.
這種金屬從古代就開始被使用了。
From the Bronze Age until the 18th century, when it was supplanted by porcelain, tin was the main ingredient in alloys used for kitchenware.
從青銅時代開始，直到18世紀，錫一直是廚具所用合金的主要成分，18世紀后錫被瓷取代。
Yet it is also extremely modern.
然而，錫也非常現代。
Its conductive properties mean that its main use today is as a solder in the construction of electric cars, electronic circuits and solar panels—all central to automation and the energy transition.
它的導熱特性意味著它在如今的主要用途是作為焊料，用于電動汽車、電子電路、太陽能電池板的制造，這些都是自動化與能源轉型的核心領域。
Lately the market for tin has caught fire.
最近，錫市場變得火爆起來。
At nearly $38,000 a tonne, its price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is up by almost a third since the start of the year.
錫的價格接近3.8萬美元每噸，倫敦金屬交易所的錫價自今年初以來已上漲近三分之一。
It has been the best-performing metal this year—shinier even than gold.
錫是今年表現最好的金屬，甚至比黃金還要耀眼。
The overall market size is tiny: some 380,000 tonnes of tin were refined last year, compared with 26m of copper, another important industrial ingredient.
錫的整體市場規模很小：去年精煉錫的產量約為38萬噸，相比之下，銅作為另一種重要工業原料的產量達到2600萬噸。
Three countries—China, Indonesia and Peru—accounted for 74% of global output, meaning subsequent supply disruptions have had an outsize impact.
中國、印度尼西亞、秘魯這三個國家的錫產量占全球總產量的74%，這意味著后續出現的供應中斷造成了格外巨大的影響。
In mid-March Alphamin, a firm that operates a large mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), suspended production because of attacks by insurgents.
3月中旬，阿法明公司暫停了生產，該公司在剛果（金）經營一座大型礦場，停產原因是暴動分子發動了襲擊。
Indonesia is planning to take a bigger slice of profits, creating a risk that domestic output slides further.
印度尼西亞計劃獲取更大份額的利潤，這會帶來國內產量進一步下滑的風險。
It is also uncertain when output from Myanmar, once the world’s third-largest producer, might return.
目前也尚不確定，緬甸的產量何時能夠恢復，緬甸曾是世界第三大錫生產國。
In 2023 the ethnic militia that controls Wa state in the north-east, which is the source of most Burmese tin, suspended mining.
2023年，控制緬甸東北部佤邦的少數民族民兵組織暫停了采礦活動，佤邦是緬甸大多數錫的產地。
Earlier this year, it indicated that production would resume soon, and started processing licences.
今年早些時候，民兵組織表示生產將很快恢復，并已開始辦理采礦許可證。
But the catastrophic earthquake that hit Myanmar on March 28th might delay things.
但是3月28日發生在緬甸的災難性地震可能會讓進度推遲。
Meanwhile, demand, having grown by 11% since 2019, is expected to rise further still, setting up supply deficits for the rest of the decade.
與此同時，自2019年以來需求已增長11%，預計還將進一步上升，這將導致2020至2030年的剩余時間內供應持續短缺。
It is not clear where more tin might come from.
目前尚不清楚更多的錫可能來自哪里。
Most miners are unlisted firms that disclose little about their prospects.
大多數礦商都是未上市企業，很少披露自身的發展前景。
Investors are bullish: bets on the metal on the LME have hit unusually high levels, and the market’s illiquidity has amplified price movements.
投資者看漲：對倫敦金屬交易所的錫的押注已達到異常高位，市場流動性不足又加劇了價格波動。
Niche hedge funds focused on minor metals are being joined by opportunistic generalists, as well as “momentum” traders.
專注于小金屬的利基對沖基金看到投機的多種通吃投資者，以及“動量”交易者的加入。（注：動量投資即購買價格正在上升的資產，然后在價格峰頂賣出資產。）
Prices could well keep rising.
錫價很可能會持續上漲。
Indonesia has threatened to restrict exports. China could falter.
印度尼西亞已揚言要限制出口。中國的錫產量可能會下降。
But the boom will not last for ever.
但這樣的繁榮不會永遠持續。
Marcus Garvey of Macquarie, a bank, expects “demand destruction” as tin buyers start to use less solder.
麥格理銀行的分析師馬庫斯·加維預計，隨著錫買家開始減少焊料用量，將出現“需求萎縮”。
A reopening in the DRC or better news from Myanmar might panic investors, causing prices to crash.
剛果（金）礦產的重新開放或緬甸傳出的好消息都可能引發投資者恐慌，導致價格暴跌。
The tin market is no stranger to exaggerated swings.
錫市場對于夸張的價格波動并不陌生。
During covid-19 lockdowns, booming demand for electronics sparked a rally—before reopening triggered a severe correction.
在新冠疫情封鎖期間，電子產品的需求激增引發了一輪上漲行情，然后重新放開又引發了價格的劇烈回調。
The metal’s history is as turbulent as it is long.
這種金屬的歷史既漫長悠久，又充滿動蕩。
