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Finance & economics
財經版塊
Buttonwood
梧桐樹專欄
Ruled by randomness
隨機性統治
The accidental origins of investing revolution.
投資革命的偶然起源。
What prompts a revolution?
什么會引發革命？
When it comes to investing, no change has been as great as that which began with researchers at the University of Chicago in the 1960s.
最大的投資革命莫過于芝加哥大學的研究者們在20世紀60年代開啟的變革。
Their financial-theory revolution changed the way that almost everyone invests, and made speculators many trillions of dollars.
他們的金融理論革命幾乎改變了所有人的投資方式，并且讓投機者賺取了數萬億美元。
The transformation is the subject of “Tune Out the Noise”, a documentary by Errol Morris, an Academy Award winner, which held its premiere in New York on March 6th.
這場變革就是紀錄片《屏蔽噪音》的主題，導演是奧斯卡獎得主埃羅爾·莫里斯，并于3月6日在紐約舉行了首映。
His film includes interviews with academics and investors, such as Eugene Fama, Myron Scholes and David Booth, who took ideas about market efficiency and diversification from the textbook and put them into practice in the markets.
這部電影中有對多位學者和投資人的采訪，例如尤金·法瑪、邁倫·舒爾茲、大衛·布斯，他們從教科書中汲取了市場效率和多樣化的理念，并將這些理念應用到市場實踐中。
This led to a surge in the use of data and a disciplined focus on costs, in turn providing the foundation for modern passive investing.
這導致對數據的使用大幅增加，以及對成本的嚴格關注，進而為現代被動投資奠定了基礎。（注：被動投資是長期持有股市指數的全部成分股，尋求獲得與指數表現相同的收益；主動投資是積極尋找合適的股票類型和時機，從而獲得最大的收益。）
Mr Morris’s film may, in theory, be about brilliant individuals, but its most powerful message is about the role played by chance.
理論上，莫里斯的這部電影可能是講述杰出個人的，但它傳遞的最有力的信息是偶然性所扮演的角色。
History, like markets, is affected by randomness, and luck brought together the right people at the right time.
歷史如同市場，受到隨機性的影響，運氣在恰當的時刻將合適的人聚集在一起。
Each had to be present for the financial revolution to emerge.
每個人都必須在場，才能讓金融革命得以出現。
The University of Chicago’s role is just about the only part of the story that happened by design.
芝加哥大學的作用幾乎是這個故事中唯一經過設計的部分。
It had become the nexus for financial research owing to its reputation for excellence in economics.
由于其在經濟學領域的卓越聲譽，芝加哥大學已成為金融研究的中心。
The Centre for Research in Security Prices was established there in 1960, and its wealth of data on the price of bonds and stocks over decades enabled the academics to do their work.
證券價格研究中心于1960年在那里成立，數十年來豐富的債券和股票價格數據使學者們能夠開展研究工作。
Randomness is apparent just about everywhere else.
而在其他所有方面，隨機性都很明顯。
Although Mr Fama, who would later win a Nobel prize for his work on asset pricing, completed a doctorate at Chicago in 1964, he almost never made it to the university.
雖然法瑪（后來因其在資產定價方面的研究獲得了諾貝爾獎）于1964年在芝加哥大學獲得了博士學位，但他差點沒能進入這所大學。
After completing an undergraduate education at Tufts University, he had to chase up his application to Chicago, discovering that it had never been received.
在塔夫茨大學完成本科學業后，他不得不催促芝加哥大學的申請進度，結果發現他的申請從未被收到。
On phoning the university, he reached the dean of students by chance, who told him about a scholarship for Tufts graduates, before offering it to him on the spot.
他打電話給芝加哥大學時，碰巧聯系到了學務主任，主任向他介紹了給塔夫茨畢業生的一項獎學金，然后當場將獎學金給了他。
It was a similar story for Mr Scholes, another future Nobel laureate.
舒爾茲也是類似的情況，也是另一位未來的諾貝爾獎得主。
In the summer of 1963 he started a job as a computer programmer despite scant expertise.
1963年夏天，盡管專業知識并不豐富，但他還是開始了一份計算機程序員的工作。
The six other programmers who were hired failed to show up for the job, leaving Mr Scholes alone to assist in the financial research of other academics.
其他六名被聘用的程序員未能到崗，只剩下舒爾茲一人去協助其他學者的金融研究。
He took to the work, abandoning his plan to return to his family’s book-publishing company, and was in time offered a place on the university’s doctoral programme.
然后他開始喜歡上了這個工作，放棄了回到家里的圖書出版公司的計劃，并最終獲得了芝加哥大學博士項目的錄取資格。
Mr Booth, whose name now adorns Chicago’s business school, and Rex Sinquefield, his business partner, put the academic ideas into practice by co-founding Dimensional Fund Advisors, a firm that today boasts $777bn in assets under management.
布斯的名字如今已鐫刻在芝加哥大學商學院的招牌上，他與商業伙伴雷克斯·辛克菲爾德攜手將學術理念付諸實踐，共同創立了德明信基金，這家公司如今管理著高達7770億美元的資產。
In 1969 Mr Booth narrowly avoided being made to fight in the Vietnam war, when a lenient officer postponed his conscription since he planned to study for a PhD.
1969年，布斯險些被征召參加越南戰爭，因為他計劃攻讀博士學位，所以一位寬容的軍官推遲了他的入伍。
Mr Sinquefield did serve in the armed forces during the war, but poor eyesight kept him from combat.
辛克菲爾德確實在越戰期間在武裝部隊服役，但由于視力不佳，他未能參與戰斗。
A few twists of fate—an unanswered phone call, a prickly recruiting officer, more diligent computer programmers or better eyesight—would have prevented some of the men from reaching Chicago.
如果命運發生一些轉折，比如電話沒有被接聽、征兵軍官很難纏、其他幾個計算機程序員很勤奮，或者辛克菲爾德有更好的視力，那么其中一些人就無法來到芝加哥大學。
Without the confluence of thought, investing might look very different today, making the world much poorer.
如果沒有思想的交匯，如今的投資可能會大不相同，世界也會因此變得更為貧窮。
Such happenstance is found elsewhere, too: other parts of economics and nuclear physics, for instance, relied upon the concentration of talent in America after geniuses, often Jewish, fled from the Nazis.
這種偶然性在其他領域也能找到：例如，其他經濟學領域和核物理學都依賴于眾多天才頭腦（大部分是猶太人）逃離納粹并匯集在美國。
In the 1950s Silicon Valley looked to be an unlikely home for the American tech industry, with corporate research mostly taking place on the east coast.
在20世紀50年代，硅谷看起來不太可能成為美國科技產業的發源地，因為當時的企業研究主要集中在東海岸。
That changed in large part because William Shockley, an inventor of transistor technology, set up his own firm in the San Francisco Bay Area.
這種情況發生了改變，主要是因為晶體管技術的發明者威廉·肖克利把自己的公司設在了舊金山灣區。
The company’s employees went on to establish giants including Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel.
這家公司的員工后來創立了包括仙童半導體和英特爾在內的巨頭企業。
Shockley had picked the area simply because he wanted to be close to his elderly mother.
而肖克利選擇舊金山，僅僅是因為他想離年邁的母親近一些。
“Tune Out the Noise” leaves viewers wondering where the next investing revolution will come from.
《屏蔽噪音》讓觀眾不禁思考，下一場投資革命將從何處而來。
Quantitative trading has speeded up market activity, which is not quite as transformative as the changes that emerged from the 1960s.
量化交易加速了市場活動，但這并不像20世紀60年代的轉變那樣具有變革性。
Some fret that cryptocurrencies are the most significant newish innovation, and that they are the preserve of speculators and criminals.
一些人擔心，加密貨幣是最重要的新興創新，而且只是投機者和罪犯的專屬領域。
But, in time, more useful ideas could emerge from the industry.
但是隨著時間的推移，這個行業可能會產生更多有用的想法。
There is always a chance.
總有機會/概率的。
