評論
打印
Finance & economics
財經版塊
American inflation
美國通脹
Cold weather, hot prices
寒冷天氣，火熱物價
Trump's tariffs are fuelling consumer worries ,which may prove self-fulfilling.
特朗普的關稅引發(fā)消費者擔憂，這可能是自我應驗的結果。
Jerome powell’s press conferences—sometimes market-moving events—have attracted less notice of late.
美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾的新聞發(fā)布會有時是震撼市場的事件，最近卻較少引起關注。
With Donald Trump in the White House, the chair of the Federal Reserve faces competition for attention.
隨著唐納德·特朗普入主白宮，美聯儲主席在吸引關注方面就面臨競爭了。
Yet a recent inflation reading has returned prices to the public eye.
然而最近的一次通脹數據再次將物價問題帶回了公眾視野。
In January America’s “core” consumer-price index, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, jumped by 5.5% at an annualised rate.
一月份，美國的“核心”消費者價格指數（剔除了波動較大的食品和能源成本后的物價）年化增長率為5.5%。
In response, Larry Summers, a former treasury secretary, called this the “riskiest period for inflation policy since the early Biden administration”, after which inflation rose to its highest in four decades.
前財政部長拉里·薩默斯對此表示，這是“自拜登政府早期以來，通脹政策最危險的時期”，拜登政府中后期，通脹率升至四十年來的最高水平。
Even more worrisome is that Americans are starting to expect higher inflation.
更令人擔憂的是，美國人開始預期會有更高的通脹。
In February preliminary data from the University of Michigan’s consumer survey showed that the median expectation for price growth over the next year had reached 4.3%.
二月份，密歇根大學消費者調查的初步數據顯示，對未來一年價格增長率預期的中位數已經達到了4.3%。
Since Mr Trump’s election, that figure has surged by 1.7 percentage points—the joint-largest three-month rise since 1979, when inflation hit double digits.
自特朗普當選以來，這一數字已飆升了1.7個百分點，這是自1979年以來并列最大的三個月漲幅，1979年的通脹率達到了兩位數。
Some market measures tell a similar story.
一些市場指標也顯示了同樣的情況。
The one- and two-year breakeven inflation rates, based on the difference between nominal and inflation-adjusted Treasury yields, are up by 1.7 and 0.8 percentage points respectively since November.
一年期和兩年期的盈虧平衡通脹率（名義國債收益率與調整通脹后的國債收益率之間的差額）自11月以來分別上升了1.7個百分點和0.8個百分點。（注：盈虧平衡通脹率反應對通脹的預期，名義國債收益率代表美元的名義收益，調整通脹后的代表美元的實際收益，二者相減即預期的通脹率。）
What is going on?
這是怎么回事？
Consumer expectations reflect two main factors: current inflation and petrol prices.
消費者預期反映兩個主要因素：當前的通脹水平，以及汽油價格。
Indeed, in normal times, about 80% of variation in quarterly one-year-ahead inflation expectations is explained by just these two variables, according to a simple model we have built.
的確，在正常情況下，根據本刊構建的一個簡單模型，未來一年的季度通脹預期中，約80%的變動僅由這兩個變量就可以解釋。
Yet when we test the model on this year’s data, it becomes unreliable.
然而，當我們用今年的數據測試該模型時，這個結論變得不可靠。
If the pre-Trump associations held, median consumer inflation expectations would be nearly a percentage point lower.
如果特朗普之前的數據關聯性仍然成立，那么消費者通脹預期的中位數應該降低近一個百分點。
A similar, if less pronounced, pattern can be seen with market forecasts.
盡管不那么明顯，但類似的情況也能從市場預測中看到。
This gap between expectations and the historical trend appears to be driven by Mr Trump’s tariff threats.
期望與歷史趨勢之間的這一差距，似乎是由特朗普的關稅威脅所導致的。
Consumers’ uncertainty about inflation is elevated: the standard deviation of responses to the University of Michigan’s survey is at its highest since 1980.
消費者對通脹的不確定性被抬高：密歇根大學的調查中，消費者回答的標準差達到了自1980年以來的最高水平。（注：標準差越大，說明數據越遠離平均值，波動性越大，即消費者對通脹的預期越不確定。）
Many appear to be taking the president at his word when he warns that “prices could go up somewhat short term”.
當特朗普預警說“短期內價格可能會有所上漲”時，許多人似乎相信了他的話。
Those who are opposed to tariffs expect inflation to be nearly 5% in a year’s time, yanking up the overall average.
反對關稅的人預期，一年內通脹率將接近5%，這個預期大幅拉高了整體平均數值。
Consumer inflation expectations are often self-fulfilling.
消費者的通脹預期往往是自我應驗的。
When workers expect higher costs in the future, they seek higher pay today.
當工作者們預期未來成本會上升時，他們就會在今天尋求更高的工資。
Meanwhile, shoppers rush to make purchases in anticipation of price rises, increasing demand and thereby pushing up prices.
與此同時，購物者們因預期物價上漲而搶購商品，這會增加需求，從而推高物價。
Recent data show that such a dynamic may be emerging.
最新數據顯示，這種動態(tài)變化可能正在顯現。
American wages grew at an annualised rate of 5.9% in January.
美國一月份工資年化增長率為5.9%。
More than 20% of respondents to the University of Michigan’s survey say that now is a good time to buy expensive items such as electronics or furniture, as prices are likely to climb soon.
密歇根大學的調查中，超過20%的受訪者表示，現在是購買電子產品或家具等昂貴物品的好時機，因為價格可能很快就會上漲。
That is the highest share in three decades.
這是三十年來的最高比例。
Fed officials are paying close attention.
美聯儲官員正在密切關注。
Lorie Logan, president of the central bank’s Dallas branch, has recently warned that when inflation expectations spiral out of control, restoring price stability often comes “only at a great economic cost”.
達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行行長洛麗·洛根最近警告稱，當通脹預期失控時，往往“只有在付出巨大經濟代價的情況下”才能恢復價格穩(wěn)定。
Current inflation uncertainty, she added, is “a reminder that expectations won’t stay anchored for ever on their own”.
她補充道，當前的通脹不確定性“提醒我們，預期不會永遠自行保持穩(wěn)定”。
Expectations for the long-term path of inflation are more mixed.
對長期通脹的預期更加復雜多樣。
The “five-year, five-year forward” measure, which is favoured by central bankers and derived from interest-rate futures contracts, is largely unchanged.
“五年后的五年通脹預期”是央行官員青睞的指標，這一指標源自利率期貨合約，目前基本保持不變。（注：“五年后的五年通脹預期”即對第6至10年的通脹預期。）
Yet other similar measures are creeping higher.
然而其他類似指標正在緩慢上升。
Market-based forecasts for the five-year breakeven inflation rate have edged up.
市場對五年期盈虧平衡通脹率的預測已略有上升。
Median five-year-ahead consumer expectations have also climbed, to 3.3%—above their peak during the inflation of recent years.
消費者對未來五年通脹預期的中位數也有所上升，達到了3.3%，超過了近年來通脹高峰期的水平。
A divide has emerged concerning long-term expectations, too.
關于長期預期也出現了分歧。
Democrats now expect a startling 4.2% average increase in prices over the next five years.
民主黨人現在預計，未來五年內，物價平均增長率將為驚人的4.2%。
Research suggests that Republicans’ concerns about potential price rises during the covid-19 pandemic led to additional inflation in the years that followed.
研究表明，共和黨人對新冠疫情期間價格可能上漲的擔憂，引發(fā)了隨后幾年額外的通脹。
Mr Trump’s attacks on the Fed, insisting that Mr Powell should reduce interest rates, are almost certainly a contributing factor to Democrats’ worries this time.
而特朗普攻擊美聯儲，堅持認為鮑威爾應該降低利率，這也幾乎肯定是這次民主黨人擔憂通脹的一個因素。
Although the president enjoys taking on bureaucrats, he may discover that doing so can backfire.
雖然特朗普喜歡與官僚們較量，但他可能會發(fā)現，這樣做會適得其反。
