評(píng)論
打印
Finance & economics
財(cái)經(jīng)版塊
Agglomeration benefits
聚集效應(yīng)
Up in smoke
灰飛煙滅
Do economists overrate big cities?
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家是否高估了大城市？
Judged by their revealed preferences, people love cities.
從人們所表現(xiàn)出來(lái)的偏好判斷，人們熱愛(ài)城市。
Metropolises such as London and New York are bursting at the seams, with house prices to match.
像倫敦和紐約這樣的大都市已經(jīng)人滿為患，房?jī)r(jià)也相應(yīng)高漲。
China, meanwhile, can boast at least six cities bigger than either of them.
同時(shí)，中國(guó)擁有至少六個(gè)比它們都更為龐大的城市。
Across the world, 25% of people live in cities of over a million, up from just 15% six decades ago.
在全球范圍內(nèi)，25%的人口居住在人口超過(guò)一百萬(wàn)的城市中，而六十年前這一比例僅為15%。
Economists tend to think this is a great development.
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家傾向于認(rèn)為這是巨大的發(fā)展。
Cities, they argue, benefit from “agglomeration”, the consequence of so many people living in close quarters.
他們認(rèn)為，城市受益于“集聚效應(yīng)”，這是眾多人口密集聚居的結(jié)果。
For one thing, government and businesses can run more efficiently: scale helps everything from public transport to the recruitment of staff.
一方面，政府和企業(yè)可以更高效地運(yùn)作：規(guī)模對(duì)從公共交通到員工招聘的一切事務(wù)都有助益。
For another, finding the next big idea is easier when like-minded people crowd together.
另一方面，當(dāng)志同道合的人聚集在一起時(shí)，找到下一個(gè)偉大創(chuàng)意會(huì)更容易。
Although London makes up 15% of Britain’s population, it counts for 22% of its economic output.
倫敦雖然占英國(guó)人口的15%，但占英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出的22%。
But have economists overestimated the benefits of big cities?
但是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家是否高估了大城市的好處呢？
That is what a new working paper by Matthew Turner and David Weil, both of Brown University, suggests.
布朗大學(xué)的馬修·特納和大衛(wèi)·韋爾的一篇新工作論文提出了這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)。
Their analysis applies existing estimates of the impact of agglomeration on economic efficiency and the pace of invention to a model of the American economy.
他們的分析把對(duì)集聚效應(yīng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)效率和發(fā)明速度的影響的現(xiàn)有估計(jì)應(yīng)用于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)模型。
This allows the researchers to answer a provocative question: how different would America look if, from 1900 to 2010, no urban area had grown to a population of more than 1m people?
這使得研究人員能夠回答一個(gè)發(fā)人深省的問(wèn)題：如果從1900年到2010年，沒(méi)有一個(gè)城市地區(qū)的人口增長(zhǎng)到超過(guò)100萬(wàn)人，那么美國(guó)會(huì)有多大的不同？
According to their calculations, the answer is “not all that much”.
根據(jù)他們的計(jì)算，答案是“并沒(méi)有太多不同”。
Growth would have been slower, but only a bit: the researchers reckon that America’s total output would have been 8% lower in 2010 than it was in reality.
經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)應(yīng)該會(huì)放緩，但幅度不大：研究人員估計(jì)，2010年美國(guó)的總產(chǎn)出將比實(shí)際水平低8%。
Such an income gap is smaller than that between America and Denmark.
這樣的收入差距比美國(guó)和丹麥之間的差距都更小。
Cities do make residents more productive, but the size of the conurbation does not matter too much.
城市確實(shí)能讓居民更有生產(chǎn)力，但城市群的規(guī)模并不太重要。
As Mr Weil puts it: “Without big cities, we would still have modern life as we know it.”
正如韋爾所說(shuō)：“沒(méi)有大城市，我們?nèi)匀粫?huì)擁有現(xiàn)在的現(xiàn)代生活。”
City enthusiasts may not be entirely persuaded by the authors’ number-crunching, which inevitably relies on some heroic assumptions.
城市愛(ài)好者可能不會(huì)完全被作者的數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算所說(shuō)服，這些計(jì)算不可避免地依賴于一些大膽的假設(shè)。
Edward Glaeser of Harvard University points out that Messrs Turner and Weil presume innovation becomes harder over time, as the easy wins are taken, meaning big cities gain less than they would otherwise from bringing the best and the brightest together.
哈佛大學(xué)的愛(ài)德華·格萊澤指出，特納和韋爾認(rèn)為，隨著容易取得的成果被獲取，創(chuàng)新會(huì)變得越來(lái)越難，這意味著大城市無(wú)法像原本那樣從匯聚最優(yōu)秀和最聰明的人才中獲得那么多好處。
Whether this pattern will continue in the future is uncertain.
這種模式在未來(lái)是否會(huì)繼續(xù)，尚不確定。
Artificial-intelligence boosters would certainly contend that innovation is likely to accelerate in the coming years.
人工智能的支持者肯定會(huì)爭(zhēng)辯說(shuō)，未來(lái)幾年創(chuàng)新可能會(huì)加速。
There is plenty about city life that is unpleasant.
城市生活有很多令人不愉快的地方。
In September, for instance, Eric Adams, New York’s mayor, convened a “National Urban Rat Summit”, as part of his “war on rats”.
例如，在去年9月，紐約市長(zhǎng)埃里克·亞當(dāng)斯召開(kāi)了一次“全國(guó)城市老鼠峰會(huì)”，這是他“滅鼠之戰(zhàn)”的一部分。
But big cities also clearly afford benefits other than growth, as Mr Weil is keen to point out.
但是正如韋爾熱切地指出的那樣，大城市除了帶來(lái)增長(zhǎng)之外，顯然還提供了其他好處。
Ultimately, high housing costs reflect people’s desire to live in them, and this does not only stem from sizzling job markes.
總而言之，高房?jī)r(jià)反映了人們對(duì)居住在大城市的渴望，這不僅僅是因?yàn)榛馃岬木蜆I(yè)市場(chǎng)。
