評論
打印
Finance & economics
財經版塊
Labour market trends
勞動力市場趨勢
All good things
所有好東西
When will work-from-homers see their pay fall?
居家辦公者的工資什么時候會下降？
Employers are ordering workers back to the office.
雇主們正在命令員工回到辦公室。
In recent weeks Dell, a hardware-maker, and JPMorgan Chase, a bank, have issued such decrees.
最近幾周，硬件制造商戴爾和摩根大通銀行都發布了這樣的規定。
They join a growing list that includes AT&T, Amazon and even the American government, where Elon Musk—who has called remote work “morally wrong” and its supporters “detached from reality”—has championed the shift.
與這二者類似的公司越來越多，其中包括美國電話電報公司、亞馬遜，甚至美國政府，埃隆·馬斯克在政府提倡從居家辦公到坐班的轉變，他稱遠程工作“在道德上是錯誤的”，其支持者“脫離現實”。
Bosses insist that mandates will boost productivity.
老板們堅持認為，強制坐班會提高生產力。
Workers see them as a way to cut staff without mass firings.
工作者們認為這是不進行大規模裁員而削減員工的方式。
If the goal is to reduce costs, there may be a simpler way: lower pay for remote workers.
如果目標是降低成本，可能有一個更簡單的辦法：降低遠程工作者的工資。
A new study indicates many would take the deal.
一項新的研究表明，許多人會接受這筆交易。
Zoe Cullen of Harvard Business School, Bobak Pakzad-Hurson of Brown University and Ricardo Perez-Truglia of the University of California, Los Angeles, find that tech workers are willing to accept a pay cut of 25% in return for fully or partly remote jobs.
哈佛大學商學院的佐伊·卡倫、布朗大學的博巴克·帕克扎德-赫森、加州大學洛杉磯分校的里卡多·佩雷斯-特魯格利亞發現，科技工作者愿意接受25%的降薪，以換取全遠程或半遠程工作。
That suggests remote work is much more than a perk.
這表明遠程工作不僅僅是一種福利。
If workers value it more than bosses dislike it, there should be scope for bargaining.
如果工作者對遠程工作的重視程度超過老板對它的厭惡程度，那么就應該有討價還價的余地。
The authors reached this estimate by analysing real-world job offers and acceptances, controlling for company type, benefits and the local cost of living, so as to isolate the impact of remote work.
三位作者通過分析現實世界中的工作機會和接受情況，從而得出了這一估計，作者們還控制了公司類型、福利和當地生活成本等因素，從而讓遠程工作的影響不受其他干擾。
Their findings contrast with those from a survey by Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University and co-authors, which found that American workers, on average, would accept only an 8% pay cut for a hybrid schedule, with just one in five willing to take a hit of 15% or more.
他們的研究結果與斯坦福大學的尼古拉斯·布魯姆等人的一項調查結果形成了鮮明對比，后者的調查發現，美國員工平均只愿意接受8%的降薪來換取混合工作安排，只有五分之一的人愿意接受15%或更多的降薪。
The discrepancy may stem from methodology.
兩個研究的差異可能源于研究方法。
Surveys reflect what workers say they want; Ms Cullen and her co-authors track the trade-offs they actually make.
調查反映了工作者們嘴上說想要什么，而卡倫及其合著者追蹤了他們實際做出了什么權衡。
Sample differences may also matter.
樣本的差異可能也很重要。
Tech workers, who tend to be higher earners, may place a greater premium on flexibility than the general workforce.
科技工作者往往收入較高，他們可能比一般勞動者更看重靈活性。
Historically, perks with clear monetary value have come at a cost to wages.
從歷史上看，具有明確貨幣價值的福利是以工資為代價的。
Jonathan Gruber of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Alan Krueger of Princeton University have found that when American states in the 1980s raised mandatory compensation insurance for workplace injuries, wages fell to offset the cost.
麻省理工學院的喬納森·格魯伯和普林斯頓大學的艾倫·克魯格發現，當美國各州在20世紀80年代提高了強制性工傷賠償保險時，為了抵消成本，工資下降了。
Price Fishback of the University of Arizona and Shawn Kantor of Florida State University found a similar pattern when workers’ compensation laws were introduced in dangerous industries such as coal mining or lumber milling.
亞利桑那大學的普賴斯·菲什巴克和佛羅里達州立大學的肖恩·坎特發現，當煤礦或木材廠等危險行業引入了工人賠償法時，類似的模式也出現了。
If remote work is, like the provision of benefits, costly to companies but valuable to workers, wages should follow the same pattern.
如果遠程工作就像補充福利一樣，對公司來說成本高昂，但對員工來說很有價值，那么工資也應該遵循同樣的模式。
Yet in most cases so far they have not.
然而在大多數情況下，工資目前沒有遵循這種模式。
One explanation may be that firms are reluctant to create visible pay gaps between remote and in-office workers.
一種解釋可能是公司不愿意在遠程辦公員工和坐班員工之間制造明顯的薪酬差距。
Human-resource policies generally aim for internal equity to prevent resentment.
人力資源政策通常力求實現內部公平，以防止怨氣。
There may be legal risk, too.
這樣做也可能存在法律風險。
As women are more likely to work remotely, cutting pay for remote jobs could indirectly lead to a gender wage gap, which firms would prefer to avoid.
由于女性更有可能遠程工作，因此削減遠程工作的薪酬可能會間接導致性別工資差距，而公司更愿意避免這種情況。
Another explanation is that remote work has become a bargaining chip.
另一種解釋是遠程工作已經成為一種談判籌碼。
Rather than lowering wages, firms use flexibility to attract and retain top performers.
企業不是降低工資，而是利用靈活性來吸引和留住頂尖人才。
Take an artificial-intelligence specialist earning $250,000 at Amazon.
以一位年薪25萬美元的亞馬遜人工智能專家為例。
If the tech giant orders them back to the office, a less prestigious rival may not match the salary but could lure them with a remote-work offer.
如果亞馬遜要求他們坐班，一家不那么知名的對手公司可能無法給出這么高的薪資，但可能用遠程工作的機會來吸引他們。
Flexibility also helps with retention.
靈活性也有助于留住員工。
Mr Bloom finds that hybrid policies reduce quit rates among engineers by a third.
布魯姆發現，混合政策使工程師的離職率降低了三分之一。
But what happens when labour-market conditions worsen?
但是當勞動力市場狀況變差時，會發生什么呢？
If workers have fewer options, firms may no longer need to compete by offering remote work.
如果工作者的選擇更少，那么公司可能不再需要通過提供遠程工作而競爭。
Instead, they may begin pricing it in—offering lower salaries for remote roles, knowing job-hunters have fewer alternatives.
相反，公司可能會開始把遠程工作算進工資——為遠程職位提供更低的薪水，因為公司知道求職者的選擇更少了。
Some signs of such a shift are already evident.
這種轉變已經有了一些很明顯的跡象。
Employment rates for middle-aged women and disabled folk have risen, with many newly able to take up remote work, yet their wages in these new remote roles are falling.
中年女性和殘疾人的就業率有所上升，因為其中許多人變得能夠從事遠程工作，但他們的這些新的遠程崗位的工資卻在下降。
Workers hate return-to-the-office mandates.
工作者們討厭強制返回辦公室的規定。
When JPMorgan announced the shift, it had to disable comments on its online post after a fierce backlash.
摩根大通宣布這一轉變后，由于遭到激烈批評，不得不關閉了這條網絡帖子的評論功能。
At Dell nearly half of employees opted to stay remote last year, even when bosses made it clear they would not be promoted if they did so.
在戴爾，去年近一半的員工選擇了繼續遠程辦公，即使老板明確表示，如果選擇遠程辦公，他們就不會得到晉升。
All the same, workers might like what comes next even less.
盡管如此，接下來的事情可能會讓工作者們更討厭。
