評論
打印
Finance & economics
財經(jīng)版塊
Super Bowl levies
超級碗征稅
Burning issue
火熱問題
Trump’s tariffs will hurt American industry and global metal market.
特朗普的關(guān)稅會傷害美國工業(yè)和全球金屬市場。
Last year dozens of countries proposed or introduced new tariffs on steel imports.
去年，幾十個國家提出或?qū)嵤┝诵碌匿撹F進(jìn)口關(guān)稅。
Most aimed the measures at China, which they accused of flooding international markets with cheap metal.
大多數(shù)是針對中國，指責(zé)中國向國際市場傾銷廉價金屬。
On February 9th Donald Trump took a different approach: he picked up a scattergun instead of a sniper’s rifle.
2月9日，唐納德·特朗普采取了不同的做法：他拿起了掃射的機(jī)關(guān)槍，而不是精準(zhǔn)狙擊的步槍。
As the president flew to the Super Bowl, he told reporters that he would announce new tariffs of 25% on aluminium and steel imports.
特朗普在飛往超級碗途中向記者表示，他將宣布對進(jìn)口鋁和鋼鐵征收25%的新關(guān)稅。
On February 10th the levies duly arrived.
2月10日，征稅如期到來。
Mr Trump sees tariffs as a way to incentivise foreign investment in America and boost domestic production.
特朗普將關(guān)稅視為激勵外國在美國投資，并促進(jìn)國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)的手段。
“It’s going to mean a lot of businesses are going to be opening in the United States,” Mr Trump said as he signed the order, which invokes domestic security as justification.
“這意味著，許多企業(yè)將在美國開辦。”特朗普在簽署命令時說道，該命令以國內(nèi)安全為理由。
The new tariffs are due to come into effect on March 12th.
新關(guān)稅將于3月12日生效。
They threaten to punish America’s allies more than its enemies—and will harm America’s own economy.
關(guān)稅威脅要懲罰美國的盟友，甚至超過對敵人的懲罰，而這將會損害美國自身的經(jīng)濟(jì)。
America imports 25% of the steel it consumes, four-fifths of which is currently free of tariffs under agreements with Canada, Brazil, Mexico and the EU, its biggest suppliers, as well as other countries.
美國進(jìn)口的鋼鐵占其消費量的25%，其中的五分之四根據(jù)與加拿大、巴西、墨西哥和歐盟（這幾個國家是其最大的供應(yīng)商）以及其他國家的協(xié)議，目前免收關(guān)稅。
America also imports 70% of its aluminium, some 60% of which comes tariff-free from Canada.
美國還進(jìn)口70%的鋁，其中約60%來自加拿大，無需繳納關(guān)稅。
Doug Ford, premier of Ontario, a Canadian province, accused Mr Trump of “shifting goalposts”.
加拿大安大略省省長道格·福特指責(zé)特朗普“不斷改變目標(biāo)”。
Mr Trump’s first term offers a guide to what might happen next.
特朗普的第一個任期為第二個任期可能發(fā)生的情況提供了參考。
In 2018 the president set a tariff of 25% on steel and another of 10% on aluminium.
2018年，特朗普對鋼鐵征收了25%的關(guān)稅，對鋁征收了10%的關(guān)稅。
Within months he had reached deals with most of America’s biggest suppliers and granted exemptions; the Biden administration later agreed to replace some tariffs with quotas.
幾個月內(nèi)，他就與美國大多數(shù)的最大供應(yīng)商達(dá)成了協(xié)議，給予了關(guān)稅豁免，拜登政府后來同意用配額取代部分關(guān)稅。
Even blunted, the measures encouraged investment in domestic steelmaking, where capacity has risen by 6% since 2018.
即使關(guān)稅措施有所減弱，這些措施仍鼓勵了國內(nèi)鋼鐵制造業(yè)的投資，自2018年以來，國內(nèi)鋼鐵產(chǎn)能已增長了6%。
Yet this did not lead to a big boost in production, which remains below levels in 2019, as does the number of people employed by steel mills.
然而這并未帶來產(chǎn)量的大幅提升，產(chǎn)量仍低于2019年的水平，鋼廠雇傭的人數(shù)也未大幅增加。
Last year output of fresh aluminium fell to its lowest this century.
去年，美國原鋁產(chǎn)量降至本世紀(jì)最低水平。
Even with tariffs, domestic demand simply has not been strong enough to produce a boom.
即便有關(guān)稅，國內(nèi)需求也一直不夠強勁，無法帶來繁榮。
In principle, there is now room for metal output to grow.
原則上，現(xiàn)在金屬產(chǎn)量有增長的空間。
America’s raw-steel mills are used to 60% or so of capacity (80% is seen as optimum).
美國的粗鋼工廠通常只使用大約60%的產(chǎn)能，而80%的產(chǎn)能被視為最佳狀態(tài)。
In reality, America will still lack the expertise to produce lots of refined products at home, says Matthew Watkins of CRU, a consultancy.
CRU咨詢公司的馬修·沃特金斯表示，實際上，美國仍然缺乏在國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)大量精煉產(chǎn)品的專業(yè)技術(shù)。
Even after Mr Trump’s first tariffs, America continued to import just as many high-value-added products—including packaging steel and seamless tubes, which contain and transport liquids—from Europe as it did before.
即使在特朗普實施首批關(guān)稅之后，美國仍然像以前那樣，繼續(xù)從歐洲進(jìn)口同樣多的高附加值產(chǎn)品，包括用于容納和運輸液體的包裝鋼和無縫管。
America has few aluminium smelters; building new ones can take years.
美國現(xiàn)有的鋁冶煉廠很少，新建冶煉廠可能需要數(shù)年時間。
In the interim it will continue to rely on imports.
在此期間，美國將繼續(xù)依賴進(jìn)口。
Domestic producers, which now face less competition, are giddy.
國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)商因為現(xiàn)在面臨的競爭減少了而感到興奮。
The share prices of Century Aluminum and Nucor, the country’s largest aluminium- and steelmakers respectively, rose by 10% and 6% the day after Mr Trump’s announcement.
世紀(jì)鋁業(yè)和紐柯鋼鐵分別是美國最大的鋁和鋼鐵制造商，二者的股價在特朗普宣布征收關(guān)稅后的那天分別上漲了10%和6%。
The tariffs could also provide a fillip to US Steel, an ailing giant whose acquisition by Nippon Steel, a Japanese firm, was blocked by Joe Biden.
這些關(guān)稅也可能為美國鋼鐵公司提供助力，這是一家陷入困境的巨頭，日本制鐵公司對其的收購計劃已被喬·拜登阻止。
But this will be more than balanced by higher prices for consumers and the fact that industrial buyers of aluminium and steel will face higher costs.
但助力將被大大抵消，因為消費者將面臨更高的價格，鋁和鋼的工業(yè)買家也將面臨更高的成本。
Ehsan Khoman and Soojin Kim of MUFG, a bank, estimate that a 25% tariff will push up the cost of a tonne of steel imported into America from $755 to over $900, negating a cost advantage that America currently enjoys over Europe.
三菱日聯(lián)銀行的厄?！た坡徒鹚卣涔烙?，25%的關(guān)稅將使進(jìn)口到美國的每噸鋼材價格從755美元推高至900美元以上，這將抵消美國目前相對于歐洲的價格優(yōu)勢。
Sheltered from competition, domestic producers will face less pressure to keep down prices.
國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)商受到保護(hù)，不用競爭，于是降低鋼鐵價格的壓力會變得更小。
Mr Trump’s tariffs could have even more profound implications for global metal markets.
特朗普的關(guān)稅政策可能還會對全球金屬市場產(chǎn)生更為深遠(yuǎn)的影響。
Shares in steel firms outside America have fallen since Mr Trump’s 30,000-feet message.
自特朗普在（前往超級碗的）3萬英尺高空發(fā)出信息后，美國以外的鋼鐵公司股價已出現(xiàn)下跌。
Many will no doubt try to redirect wares, pushing down prices elsewhere.
許多國家無疑會嘗試把鋼鐵賣給其他國家，從而壓低其他地方的價格。
Other countries may erect trade barriers to protect their own industries.
其他國家可能會設(shè)置貿(mào)易壁壘，保護(hù)自己的產(chǎn)業(yè)。
The resulting glut in aggregate capacity could, in turn, ensure that international prices remain depressed even as protected metals firms grow rustier and greedier.
由此導(dǎo)致的總體產(chǎn)能過?？赡軙^續(xù)讓國際鋼鐵價格持續(xù)低迷，即使受保護(hù)的金屬公司已變得更加銹蝕和貪婪。
In America and elsewhere, Mr Trump’s metals wars will corrode the economy.
在美國及其他地區(qū)，特朗普的金屬戰(zhàn)將腐蝕經(jīng)濟(jì)。
