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Finance & economics
財經版塊
Free exchange
自由交換專欄
Greenbacks for Greenland
用美元買格陵蘭島
An American purchase of the territory could be the deal of the century.
美國購買格陵蘭島或將成為世紀交易。
Although America has a history of taking a commercial approach to international relations, purchases are rarely made without controversy.
雖然美國在處理國際關系時一貫采取商業手段，但美國的購買行為很少沒有爭議。
When Thomas Jefferson bought Louisiana in 1803, doubling the size of the country, he had to set aside his zest for constitutional constructivism, which would have ruled out such bold federal action.
托馬斯·杰斐遜總統在1803年購買路易斯安那州，使美國的領土面積擴大了一倍，為此他不得不放棄對憲法建構主義的熱情，因為憲法建構主義會排斥這種大膽的聯邦行動。（注：憲法建構主義指通過理性來設計和構建憲法秩序，而非通過在實踐經驗中逐步完善憲法。）
Sixty-four years later, when William Seward, then secretary of state, purchased Alaska from Russia for $7.2m ($162m today), the move was dubbed “Seward’s folly”.
六十四年后，時任美國國務卿的威廉·蘇厄德以720萬美元（約合今天的1.62億美元）從俄羅斯手中買下了阿拉斯加州，此舉在當時被戲稱為“蘇厄德蠢事”。
Now the Alaska deal is seen as a masterstroke and the Louisiana purchase the greatest achievement of one of America’s greatest presidents.
現在阿拉斯加交易被視為神來之筆，而購買路易斯安那則成為美國最偉大的總統之一的最偉大成就。
In hindsight, both look extraordinarily good value.
事后看來，兩樁交易買得都很值。
History will not be as kind to Donald Trump if he coerces Denmark to give up Greenland.
如果唐納德·特朗普強迫丹麥放棄格陵蘭島，歷史將不會給他這種厚待。
On January 7th the president-elect declined to rule out using military might or economic warfare in his pursuit of Greenland (and of the Panama Canal).
1月7日，這位當選總統拒絕排除用軍事力量或經濟戰拿下格陵蘭（和巴拿馬運河）的可能性。
America will lose friends if it bullies one into ceding territory.
美國若逼迫一個友國割讓領土，那么它將失去很多朋友。
But Mr Trump’s provocations are also foolish because an agreement to buy Greenland, made freely and in good will, could indeed be another deal of the century.
但是特朗普的挑釁也是愚蠢的，因為如果自由且友好地達成購買格陵蘭島的協議，那么這項購買確實可能成為又一樁世紀交易。
Such a deal would increase America’s security, and perhaps that of its NATO allies, too.
這樣的協議將增強美國的安全，或許也會增強其北約盟國的安全。
Autocrats would be dispirited.
專制者們會感到沮喪。
And a purchase could also benefit the inhabitants of the island, who must—and surely would—have the final say.
而且購買該島也可能使島上的居民受益，居民必須——而且肯定會——擁有最終決定權。
What, then, is Greenland worth?
那么，格陵蘭島價值幾何？
One starting point is the island’s annual GDP.
一個計算起點是該島的年度國內生產總值。
At last count, in 2021, it was $3bn, or one seven-thousandth of America’s.
截至2021年的最后一次統計，年度GDP是30億美元，是美國的七千分之一。
Only 56,000 people live in Greenland, despite the fact it is bigger than any American state.
格陵蘭島的面積比美國任何一個州都大，但島上只有5.6萬居民。
Much of the territory’s output is the work of the 43% of the labour force employed by the state (against 15% in America).
島上的大部分產出是由國家雇傭的勞動力中的43%（美國為15%）完成的。
Over half the government’s bills are paid by Denmark, which gives the territory $500m a year.
超過一半的政府賬單由丹麥支付，丹麥每年給格陵蘭島5億美元。
The biggest industry is fishing.
最大的產業是漁業。
Removing the public sector, ignoring other spending commitments, assuming Greenland’s long-run growth continues and America’s federal government receives 16% of GDP in tax (the national average), as well as discounting using America’s 30-year Treasury yield, produces a valuation of $50bn, or a twentieth of America’s annual defence spending.
去掉公共部門，忽略其他支出承諾，假設格陵蘭的長期增長持續下去，假設美國聯邦政府獲得格陵蘭GDP的16%作為稅收（全國平均稅收水平），不考慮使用美國30年期國債收益，那么得出的格陵蘭島的估值為500億美元，即美國年度國防支出的二十分之一。
Yet Mr Trump covets Greenland for its strategic and economic potential, rather than its puny output.
但特朗普仍覬覦格陵蘭島，因為其戰略和經濟潛力而不是微不足道的產出。
The island sits between America and Russia in a part of the world that is becoming more navigable as Arctic ice melts.
該島位于美國和俄羅斯之間，隨著北極冰層融化，這一地區變得更適合航行。
Although America’s Pituffik Space Base on the territory’s north-west coast already provides the armed forces with missile-warning sensors, an American Greenland might better monitor the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap, a strip of the Atlantic Ocean that is the access route for Russian submarines to America’s east coast, and to the North Atlantic.
雖然美國在格陵蘭島西北海岸的皮圖菲克太空基地已經為美軍提供了導彈預警傳感器，但如果格陵蘭島屬于美國，那么美國將能更好地監控格陵蘭-冰島-英國（GIUK）缺口，這片大西洋海域是俄羅斯潛艇進入美國東海岸和北大西洋的通道。
