評論
打印
Finance & economics
財經版塊
Buttonwood
梧桐樹專欄
Reshoring ain’t reassuring
回流本土并非萬事大吉
Stockmarkets do not reward firms for investing in Trump’s America.
股市并未因企業投資特朗普治下的美國而給予回報。
What do the following three companies have in common?
以下三家公司有何共同點？
Stellantis, owner of the Fiat, Jeep and Chrysler brands; Merck, which makes the world’s bestselling cancer drug; and Barry Callebaut, a Swiss chocolate-maker, which is particularly proud of its ruby flavour, neither sweet nor bitter.
擁有菲亞特、吉普、克萊斯勒品牌的Stellantis汽車集團，生產全球最暢銷抗癌藥物的默克公司，以及瑞士巧克力制造商百樂嘉利寶，該公司引以為豪的是其研發的既不甜膩也不苦澀的紅寶石巧克力。
One answer: their capital-expenditure (capex) plans.
一個答案：他們的資本支出計劃是相同的。
All three have announced investments in America since Donald Trump won last year’s presidential election.
自唐納德·特朗普贏得去年總統大選以來，這三家公司均已宣布在美國投資。
In January Stellantis (whose largest shareholder part-owns The Economist’s parent company) said that it would build the next Dodge Durango in Detroit and reopen an assembly plant in Illinois, putting union members back to work.
1月，Stellantis集團（其最大股東持有《經濟學人》母公司的部分股份）宣布將在底特律生產下一代道奇杜蘭戈車型，并重啟伊利諾伊州的一家裝配廠，讓工會成員重新獲得工作。
Two months later Merck announced the opening of a vaccine plant in North Carolina.
兩個月后，默克宣布在北卡羅來納州開設一家疫苗工廠。
And on April 10th Barry Callebaut said it would expand a plant in America to help it cope with the “disruptive environment” Mr Trump’s new administration has created.
4月10日，百樂嘉利寶表示將擴建其在美國的一家工廠，以應對特朗普新政府制造的“破壞性環境”。
Mr Trump is, of course, delighted by this kind of news.
特朗普對這類消息當然感到高興。
The White House added the chocolate-maker to a list of more than two dozen companies that have announced investments in America since the president’s return to power.
自總統重新掌權以來，已有二十多家公司宣布在美國投資，白宮也將這家巧克力制造商加入了這份名單中。
“We are already seeing progress in reshoring American industry,” it said.
“我們已經看到美國產業回流本土正在取得進展。”白宮稱。
The spending is presumably good for America. But is it good for the companies themselves?
這種支出想必是對美國有益。但對公司本身有益嗎？
Even the president should care about this question.
就連總統也應該關心這個問題。
Trump Media, one of his firms, has just launched new investment accounts that let people bet their money on MAGA themes like “Made in America”.
總統自己的一家公司特朗普傳媒剛剛推出了新的投資賬戶，讓人們可以把錢押在“美國制造”等MAGA主題上。（注：MAGA即特朗普的口號“讓美國再次偉大”。）
So do capex announcements that gratify Mr Trump also please shareholders?
那么，讓特朗普滿意的資本支出公告是否也讓股東滿意呢？
In theory, the answer is ambiguous.
理論上，答案是模棱兩可的。
The impact of capex on a company’s share price can be sweet, bitter or neither.
資本支出對公司股價的影響可以是甜蜜的、苦澀的，也可能毫無影響。
An optimistic view is that such spending ought to lift share prices.
樂觀的看法是這類支出應當會推高股價。
Why else would companies do it?
否則企業為何要這么做？
Managers have strong incentives to care about what shareholders think.
企業經理人有強烈的動機去關注股東的想法。
And shareholders have reason to defer to a firm’s judgment about the deployment of capital.
股東們有理由遵從公司關于資本配置的判斷。
That is, after all, why investors entrust their capital to a firm in the first place.
畢竟，這就是投資者最初將資金托付給一家公司的原因。
Other theories are less optimistic.
其他理論則不那么樂觀。
Institutional investors may have short time horizons, punishing any costly plan that privileges distant years over the next quarter.
機構投資者的目光可能較為短視，他們會讓任何犧牲下個季度的利益而優先考慮長遠收益的高成本方案吃苦頭。
Alternatively, managers may have skewed incentives of their own.
或者，企業經理人自己可能存在扭曲的激勵動機。
They may be tempted to build a corporate empire with money that would be better returned to shareholders.
他們可能會忍不住把本該返還給股東的錢用來打造企業帝國。
According to a third, “efficient markets” view, investment is neither bitter nor sweet.
第三種觀點是“有效市場”，這種觀點認為投資既無苦也無甜。
A company’s share price will already reflect its expected capital outlays in the future.
一家公司的股價已經反映了其未來的預期資本支出。
Capex announcements will move the price only if they deviate from these expectations.
只有當資本支出公告與這些預期出現偏差時，才會對股價產生影響。
Most studies find that share prices respond positively to capex announcements, if only weakly.
大多數研究發現，股價對資本支出公告的反應是積極的，盡管這種反應可能較為微弱。
The firms showcased by the White House have a couple of extra things going for them.
白宮展示的這些公司還有幾個額外好處。
Moving production to America will help them escape Mr Trump’s tariffs, as he himself points out.
正如特朗普所指出的，將生產轉移到美國將幫助企業避開關稅。
Another potential benefit is winning the president’s goodwill.
另一個潛在好處是贏得總統的好感。
Indeed, some bosses made their announcements standing alongside Mr Trump.
其實一些企業老板就是站在特朗普身旁宣布了資本支出消息。
Despite all this, shareholders appear unconvinced.
盡管如此，股東們似乎并不信服。
Of the listed companies that are featured in the White House press release, 20 have made firm capex announcements.
在白宮新聞稿中提及的上市公司里，已有20家公布了資本支出計劃。
In only 11 out of these 20 cases was the company’s share price higher on the day after the announcement than on the day before.
在這20家公司中，僅有11家公司在公布資本支出計劃次日的股價高于公布前一天的股價。
Moreover, 15 of these companies have underperformed their national equity market since Mr Trump won last year’s election.
此外，自特朗普贏得去年大選以來，其中15家公司的股票表現遜于美股平均水平。
A simple, equal-weighted average of these stocks has fallen by almost 12% in dollar terms since election day, compared with the 7% decline in the S&P 500 index of big American firms.
自大選日以來，這15家公司股票的簡單等權平均市值以美元計算已下跌近12%，而同期標普500指數中的美國大型企業股價跌幅僅為7%。
Many of the companies have idiosyncratic problems.
許多公司都有各自獨特的問題。
Barry Callebaut has been hurt by the volatile price of cocoa.
百樂嘉利寶受到可可價格波動的影響。
Merck has encountered weak demand in China for its otherwise successful human-papillomavirus vaccine.
默克的HPV疫苗在中國市場需求疲軟，盡管該疫苗在其他地區很成功。
Stellantis bade farewell to its contentious chief executive in December.
Stellantis在12月與其頗具爭議的CEO結束合作。
And the firms’ plans may reflect fear more than enthusiasm.
這三家公司的計劃可能更多反映了恐懼而非熱情。
Their decision to expand operations in America so early in Mr Trump’s term could suggest they were unusually exposed to his tariff plans, and the “disruptive environment” levies have created.
它們在特朗普任期之初就早早決定在美國擴大業務，這可能表明它們異常容易受到其關稅計劃及這些關稅所創造的“破壞性環境”的影響。
Certainly, for Stellantis, Merck and Barry Callebaut, Mr Trump’s second term has not been a box of chocolates.
當然，對Stellantis、默克、百樂嘉利寶而言，特朗普的第二任期并非如一盒巧克力般甜蜜。
Another thing all three have in common: a slump in their share price since election day of over 20%.
這三家公司還有一個共同點：自選舉日以來，其股價跌幅均超過20%。
