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Why Black Friday sales grow more annoying every year.
為什么黑色星期五促銷變得一年比一年討厭。
When is Black Friday? The obvious answer is a literal one.
黑色星期五是什么時候？顯而易見的答案是字面上的那個黑色星期五。
It is the day after Thanksgiving, an American holiday when families gather to gorge on turkey and pumpkin pie, which this year falls on November 29th.
也就是感恩節后的一天，感恩節是家人團聚、大吃火雞和南瓜派的美國節日，今年的感恩節是11月29日。（注：感恩節的每年11月的第四個星期四。）
Yet Black Friday is not simply a date, it is also an idea.
但黑色星期五不僅僅是一個日期，也是一個概念。
The day traditionally marked the beginning of the festive shopping season, when people would start to stock up on Christmas presents.
在過去，這一天標志著節日購物季的開始，人們會開始儲備圣誕禮物。
Today, it is the time of year during which everything goes on sale.
在如今，這一天是一年中所有東西都在打折促銷的日子。
And pinpointing when this begins is a much more difficult endeavour.
要準確指出這一天始于何時是一項困難得多的任務。
In a bid to find an answer your columnist searched her inbox for the earliest Black Friday discount offered by a retailer.
為了找到答案，筆者在她的收件箱中搜索了零售商提供的最早的黑色星期五折扣郵件。
The missive came in early October.
這封郵件在10月初就發來了。
To understand this baffling development, consider the underlying economics.
要理解黑色星期五的這種令人困惑的發展，需要考慮底層經濟邏輯。
American retail is a fiercely competitive market—but that is different from being a “perfectly” competitive market.
美國零售業是一個競爭激烈的市場，但與“完全”競爭的市場不同。
Léon Walras, a brilliant 19th-century French economist, defined such a market as existing when large numbers of buyers and sellers meet, with perfect information, in order to exchange homogeneous products.
萊昂·瓦爾拉斯是一位杰出的19世紀法國經濟學家，他將完全競爭市場定義為大量的買家和賣家在信息充分的情況下會面，以交換同質產品。
In a perfect market no single seller has the power to set prices across the board, and there are no barriers to entry for new arrivals.
在完全競爭市場中，沒有哪一個賣家有能力給所有商品定價，而且新來者也沒有進入市場的壁壘。
Although real life is almost never like this, it comes close in markets for standardised commodities, such as a bushel of a certain grade of wheat.
雖然現實生活幾乎從來不是這樣，但標準化商品市場卻很接近完全競爭市場，比如一蒲式耳某種等級的小麥就是標準化商品。
At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, there is pretty perfect information about what is being bought and sold.
在芝加哥商業交易所，對于正在買賣的東西有相當充分的信息。
There are lots of buyers and sellers, who all gather in the same place at the same time.
那里有很多買家和賣家，他們都在同一時間聚集在同一個地方。
There are lots of transactions.
那里有很多交易。
And sellers compete exclusively on price, which should equate to the marginal cost of producing an extra bushel.
而且賣家之間僅僅基于價格進行競爭，價格應該等同于再多生產一蒲式耳小麥的邊際成本。（注：邊際成本表示每增加一單位產量所帶來的新增成本，邊際成本等于商品單價時，說明市場供需達到均衡。）
Needless to say, none of them offer Black Friday deals.
不用說，這些賣家都沒有提供黑色星期五的優惠。
The markets for toaster ovens or slippers do not quite operate in the same manner.
但烤面包機或拖鞋的市場運作方式與這種市場不完全相同。
For a start, goods are differentiated by design and quality.
首先，商品是通過設計和質量來區分的。
Information is far from perfect, hence the popularity of recommendation services such as The Strategist and Wirecutter, which test and rank products.
信息也遠非充分，因此像“策略家”和“鐵絲剪”這樣的商品推薦服務就很受歡迎，這兩個網站會測評產品并進行排名。
Retailers compete on price, of course, but, critically, they also compete on timing.
零售商當然會在價格上競爭，但關鍵是他們也會在時間上競爭。
Imagine a customer who is looking to purchase a blender.
想象一下，有一位顧客正在計劃購買一臺攪拌機。
Bob is torn between the “top pick” on Wirecutter—the Vitamix 5200, a pricey $450 model—and a cheaper runner-up option, the Cleanblend Blender, which is sold for around $170.
鮑勃在糾結是買鐵絲剪網站推薦的“首選”（售價450美元的高端機型維他密斯5200），還是買更便宜的亞軍選項：售價約170美元的Cleanblend攪拌機。
He prefers the Vitamix, and is willing to pay perhaps $200 more for it.
他更喜歡維他密斯，并且愿意為它多付大約200美元。
Then, in late October, he receives an email from a small retailer offering the Cleanblend for just $120.
然后在10月下旬，他收到了一封來自一家小型零售商的電子郵件，Cleanblend售價僅為120美元。
He knows the Vitamix will go on sale soon, but does not know how big the discount will be, and perhaps the other retailer will have sold out of Cleanblends by then.
他知道維他密斯攪拌機很快就會打折，但不知道折扣會有多大，而且也許到那時另一家零售商的Cleanblend就已經賣完了。
He decides to make a purchase.
他決定購買Cleanblend。
Two weeks later, while whizzing up a morning smoothie in his Cleanblend, he sees the Vitamix has been discounted to just $300, and feels a pang of regret.
兩周后，當他在早晨用Cleanblend攪拌奶昔時，看到維他密斯已經打折到僅300美元，于是一陣懊悔襲上心頭。
