評論
打印
Finance & economics
財經版塊
Cognitive skills
認知技能
Off the books
離開書本
Are adults forgetting how to read?
成年人正忘記如何閱讀嗎？
Are you smarter than a ten-year-old?
你比十歲的孩子更聰明嗎？
New data suggest that a shockingly large portion of adults in the rich world might not be.
新數據表明，富裕國家中相當大部分的成年人可能并不是。
Roughly one-fifth of people aged 16 to 65 perform no better in tests of maths and reading than would be expected of a pupil coming to the end of their time at primary school, according to a study released on December 10th by the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries.
根據經濟合作與發展組織（主要由富裕國家組成的集團）于12月10日發布的一項研究，在16歲至65歲的人群中，大約有五分之一的人在數學和閱讀測試中的表現并不比將要小學畢業的學生更好。
Worse still, adults in many places have grown less literate over the past ten years.
更糟糕的是，在過去十年里，許多地方的成年人的讀寫能力變得更差了。
The OECD’s “Survey of Adult Skills” is carried out only once a decade.
經合組織的“成人技能調查”每十年才進行一次。
The researchers arranged for 160,000 adults in 31 countries and regions to sit short tests in numeracy, literacy and problem-solving.
研究人員安排31個國家和地區的16萬名成年人參加算術、讀寫、解決問題的簡短測試。
These aim to gauge if they have the skills to hold down a job, participate in civic life and generally thrive in the real world.
這些測試旨在衡量他們是否具備保住工作、參與公民生活、在現實世界中好好生活的技能。
At their most basic, they find out how well people can make sense of the warnings on the back of an aspirin packet, or work out how much wallpaper is needed to cover a room.
在最基本的層面上，測試會發現人們對阿司匹林包裝背面的警告語理解程度如何，或者對于一個房間需要貼多少墻紙的計算能力如何。
At more advanced levels, they explore how well people can draw sound conclusions from analysis and charts of the sort one might stumble across in, say, a popular current-affairs magazine.
在更高級的層面上，測試探索對于人們可能在流行的時事雜志中偶然看到的分析和圖表，人們從中推斷出正確結論的能力如何。
Finland will rejoice at the results: it posts the highest average score in all three fields.
芬蘭將為測試結果感到高興：該國在所有三個領域都獲得了最高的平均分。
People in the Netherlands, Norway and Japan, who performed better than average across the disciplines, will also be pleased.
荷蘭、挪威、日本也會感到高興，這三國在各個學科上的表現都優于平均水平。
England has risen up the league table in the ten years since the tests were last run, owing to better performances among young adults.
英國自十年前上次測試以來排名有所上升，這是由于年輕成年人表現更好。
By contrast, America’s results are heading south.
相比之下，美國的成績正在走下坡路。
Similarly, Chile, Italy, Poland and Portugal all boast a high share of people who score below the norm.
同樣地，智利、意大利、波蘭、葡萄牙都有很高比例的人得分低于正常水平。
Almost half of Chileans score badly enough to place in the bottom two categories in both maths and reading, compared with just 8% of Japanese people.
幾乎一半的智利人在數學和閱讀方面的得分都很差，排名為最末的兩類，而日本人的比例只有8%。
Zoom out, and the picture is one of worsening basic skills.
放眼全局，這幅圖景表明基本技能在變得越來越差。
For almost every country that has seen its score in numeracy rise significantly over the past ten years, there is another that has seen its score fall.
在過去十年中，每有一個在算術方面得分顯著提高的國家，幾乎就有一個得分下降的國家。
When it comes to literacy, countries with falling scores outnumber those making significant progress.
對于讀寫能力，分數下降的國家數量超過了取得顯著進步的國家數量。
This is the case even though more people are completing secondary school, and many more are getting degrees.
盡管有更多人完成了中學學業，還有更多人獲得了大學學位，但情況依舊是這樣。
The declines are concentrated among the least proficient, who seem to be scoring even lower than they did before.
分數下降集中在技能最差的人群中，他們的得分似乎比以前更低了。
In many countries, the gap between the most- and least-skilled people is widening.
在許多國家，最有技能的人和最沒有技能的人之間的差距正在擴大。
Increased migration offers some explanation.
移民增加是部分原因。
Non-native speakers tend to do worse in tests that involve juggling words.
非母語人士在涉及文字游戲的測試中往往表現更差。
Ageing populations do not help: the data suggest that numeracy and literacy peak at 30 or so.
人口老齡化也不利于成績提高：數據表明，計算能力和讀寫能力在30歲左右達到頂峰。
But even when these changes are accounted for, literacy scores in lots of countries are falling.
但是即使考慮到這些變化，許多國家的讀寫分數仍在下降。
Andreas Schleicher, head of education and skills at the OECD, speculates that adults are now getting less practice than they used to at reading long and complex texts.
經合組織教育與技能部門負責人安德烈亞斯·施萊歇爾推測，成年人現在對長篇復雜文本的閱讀練習比過去少了。
Blame TikTok.
這都怪抖音。
The OECD’s study is not the only one to suggest that improvements in cognitive skills might now be stalling.
經合組織的研究并不是唯一一個表明認知技能的提升現在可能出現停滯的研究。
Throughout the 20th century, psychometrists observed that IQ scores were rising reliably, as part of a phenomenon named the “Flynn effect”.
在整個20世紀，心理測量學家觀察到智商分數在穩定上升，這是“弗林效應”的一部分。（注：弗林效應指一代比一代聰明。）
More recently, the trend in some countries has been that of stagnation or decline.
最近，一些國家的智商分數趨勢是停滯或下降。
The cause of this is hotly debated.
這一現象的原因引起了激烈的爭論。
What no one much doubts is that people with nimble brains find it rather easier to swerve life’s worst misfortunes, and are more likely to enjoy the best outcomes.
沒有人懷疑的是，頭腦靈活的人更容易避開生活中最嚴重的不幸，也更有可能享受最好的結果。
Surveys carried out alongside the OECD’s tests appear to confirm as much.
與經合組織的測試同時進行的調查似乎證實了這一點。
People who perform best in the tests boast wages that are 75% higher than those with the worst scores.
在測試中表現最好的人所擁有的工資比得分最差的人高75%。
And returns to good numeracy and literacy seem to be more than just financial.
而且良好的計算能力和讀寫能力帶來的回報似乎不僅僅是經濟上的。
High scorers report that they are happier and in better health.
高分者報告說，他們更幸福，身體也更健康。
Low scorers seem to be more suspicious of others, and more likely to report feeling alienated from politics.
低分者似乎更容易懷疑他人，也更有可能報告說感到與政治疏遠。
You do not need a first-rate mind to sense trouble ahead.
你不需要有一流的頭腦就能感覺到未來的麻煩。
