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Finance & economics
財(cái)經(jīng)版塊
Brazil's currency woes
巴西貨幣困境
The market revolts
市場(chǎng)反抗
After a clumsy tax cut the already beleaguered real takes a battering.
實(shí)行不恰當(dāng)?shù)臏p稅政策后，早已深陷困境的雷亞爾又遭重?fù)簟?/p>
The Brazilian real holds an ignominious title this year: it is the worst-performing major currency, down by more than 20% to a record low of almost 6.3 to the dollar.
今年巴西貨幣雷亞爾獲得了一個(gè)不光彩的稱(chēng)號(hào)：它是表現(xiàn)最差的主要貨幣，下跌了20%以上，創(chuàng)下了1美元兌近6.3雷亞爾的歷史新低。
The situation has grown even uglier over the past week, with the sell-off accelerating despite several interventions by the central bank.
過(guò)去一周，情況變得更加糟糕，盡管巴西央行進(jìn)行了幾次干預(yù)，但雷亞爾拋售仍在加速。
The slump is fuelled by panic about fiscal plans.
巴西貨幣貶值是由對(duì)財(cái)政計(jì)劃的恐慌推動(dòng)的。
In November the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the left-wing president, announced a long-awaited programme to curb spending, including earnings caps for public-sector workers.
11月，巴西左翼總統(tǒng)路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達(dá)席爾瓦政府宣布了一項(xiàng)期待已久的計(jì)劃：遏制開(kāi)支，包括對(duì)公共部門(mén)工作者施行收入上限。
At the same time, though, the finance minister, Fernando Haddad, promised extensive tax cuts for low- and middle-income workers.
但與此同時(shí)，財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)費(fèi)爾南多·哈達(dá)德承諾為中低收入工人大幅減稅。
Investors took the announcement as proof of insufficient commitment to fiscal discipline.
投資者將公布的這一消息視為巴西未遵守財(cái)政紀(jì)律的證據(jù)。
Given Brazil’s budget deficit of almost 10% of GDP and gross debt of nearly 90% of GDP, jitters are understandable.
鑒于巴西的預(yù)算赤字幾乎占GDP的10%，總債務(wù)接近GDP的90%，這種不安是可以理解的。
On December 17th the central bank sold over $3bn in currency reserves in a failed attempt to prop up the real.
12月17日，巴西央行出售了超過(guò)30億美元的外匯儲(chǔ)備，但未能成功支撐雷亞爾。
It has already raised interest rates three times since September, including a surprise increase of a full percentage point on December 11th.
自9月以來(lái)，巴西央行已經(jīng)三次提高利率，包括在12月11日出人意料地提高了整整一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
Even as many emerging-market central banks have begun to cut rates, taking their cue from the Federal Reserve, investors expect more monetary tightening in Brazil over the coming year.
即使許多新興市場(chǎng)央行已效仿美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)，開(kāi)始降息，但投資者預(yù)計(jì)巴西在未來(lái)一年將繼續(xù)收緊貨幣。
The country’s two-year government bonds now yield more than 15%, up from just under 10% at the end of 2023.
巴西兩年期政府債券的收益率目前超過(guò)15%，而在2023年底時(shí)僅略低于10%。
But monetary hawkishness is not cutting the mustard.
但貨幣鷹派政策并未達(dá)到預(yù)期效果。
Financial markets are clamouring for a fiscal u-turn, which the government is reluctant to offer.
金融市場(chǎng)強(qiáng)烈要求政府在財(cái)政政策上180度大轉(zhuǎn)彎，但政府并不愿意這樣做。
“We know exactly how we got here, so we know how to get out of here. We need to walk backwards,” says Alberto Ramos, head of economic research for Latin America at Goldman Sachs, a bank.
“我們很清楚我們是如何走到這一步的，所以我們也很清楚要如何走出去。我們需要倒退著走，”高盛銀行拉丁美洲經(jīng)濟(jì)研究部主管阿爾貝托·拉莫斯表示，
“The more you wait, the higher the risk that things will be done the hard way, and the market will force the correction.
“等的時(shí)間越長(zhǎng)，事情變得棘手的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)就越高，那時(shí)市場(chǎng)將倒逼我們調(diào)整政策。
The symptoms of a crisis are there.”
現(xiàn)在存在著發(fā)生危機(jī)的癥狀。”
