評論
打印
Finance & economics
財經版塊
European economics
歐洲經濟
Maladie chronique
慢性頑疾（注：標題為法語）
France is not alone in its fiscal woes.
并非只有法國身陷財政困境。
When things got tough, European finance ministers used to sigh and say that at least they were not Greek.
當情況變得艱難時，歐洲各國的財政部長們過去常常嘆口氣，然后說至少他們不是希臘人。
Today, some would struggle to make such a comment.
現在，有些人很難再給出這種評論。
On December 2nd the yield on Greek bonds fell below that on French ones, indicating investors thought it safer to lend to Greece than France.
12月2日，希臘國債收益率降至法國國債收益率之下，這表明投資者認為給希臘提供貸款比給法國提供貸款更安全。
The yield on French bonds is now 0.8 percentage points above German bunds, the euro zone’s benchmark, which is the widest gap since the near-collapse of the euro in 2012.
法國國債的收益率現在比德國國債（歐元區的基準）高出0.8個百分點，這是自2012年歐元幾近崩潰以來的最大差距。
On December 4th the French government crumbled in a row over spending.
12月4日，法國政府在支出問題上發生爭吵并隨之垮臺。（注：法國總理的削減開支草案直接導致國民議會投票推翻了法國政府，總理辭職。）
Will European finance ministers soon sigh and say that at least they are not French?
歐洲的財政部長們是否很快就會嘆口氣，然后說至少他們不是法國人？
The EU’s second-biggest economy faces severe problems.
歐盟第二大經濟體法國面臨著嚴峻的問題。
The first is the government’s fiscal deficit.
首先是政府的財政赤字。
At over 6% of GDP, this year’s figure will end up much higher than the government had predicted and independent forecasters had expected.
今年的赤字超過GDP的6%，最終將遠遠高于政府的預測和獨立預測者的預期。
Worse still, the IMF expects the deficit to stay at this level—well above the 3% maximum mandated by the European Commission—until the end of the decade.
更糟糕的是，國際貨幣基金組織預計，直到2029年底，赤字將保持在這一水平——遠高于歐盟委員會規定的3%的上限。
Wide deficits add to France’s debt level, which is forecast to reach 115% of GDP next year, about 17 percentage points higher than in 2018.
巨額赤字增加了法國的債務水平，預計明年赤字將達到GDP的115%，比2018年高出約17個百分點。
By 2029 it will have reached 124% of GDP, according to the IMF.
根據國際貨幣基金組織的數據，到2029年，赤字將達到GDP的124%。
Spending on interest payments is thus expected to rise from 1.9% of GDP to 2.9%.
因此利息支出預計將從GDP的1.9%上升到2.9%。
And that is based on healthy economic-growth expectations.
這個預期還是以經濟健康增長為基礎。
Goldman Sachs has cut its growth forecast to just 0.7% next year.
高盛已將法國明年的增長預測下調至僅0.7%。
If the bank’s analysts are correct, interest payments will be even more painful and debt higher still relative to GDP.
如果高盛的分析師是正確的，那么利息支付將更加痛苦，債務相對于GDP的比例將更高。
France has not been the only big spender.
法國并不是唯一一個有巨額支出的國家。
Even countries usually renowned for their fiscal hawkishness, including Austria, Germany and the Netherlands, have experienced widening deficits in recent years.
就連包括奧地利、德國和荷蘭在內的通常以財政鷹派著稱的國家近年來也經歷了赤字擴大。（注：財政鷹派主張減開支、少貸款、少赤字。）
The covid-19 pandemic and the energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine got things going.
新冠疫情以及俄烏戰爭引發的能源危機推動了赤字擴大。
Indeed, in 2022 governments spent more supporting their economies than after the global financial crisis of 2007-09, notes Sander Tordoir of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank.
事實上，歐洲改革中心智庫的桑德·托多伊指出，在2022年各國政府為支持經濟所花費的資金比在2007-2009年全球金融危機后還要多。
Later, with memories of the euro crisis fading, politicians spent big in an attempt to reduce burgeoning support for populist parties, at the same time as increasing expenditure on the green transition and their armed forces.
后來隨著歐元危機記憶的消退，政客們進行了大額支出，試圖消減迅速增長的對民粹主義政黨的支持，同時也增加了對綠色過渡和軍隊的支出。
All countries have now submitted fiscal-consolidation plans to the European Commission.
現在所有國家都已向歐盟委員會提交了財政整頓計劃。
The French one is ambitious, aiming to cut the deficit by 0.5 percentage points of GDP a year, enough to stabilise the debt level.
法國的計劃雄心勃勃，目標是每年將赤字占GDP的比例降低0.5個百分點，這足以穩定債務水平。
At the moment, however, such a plan looks politically impossible.
然而目前這樣的計劃在政治上看起來是不可能的。
And the French government is not the only one coming to terms with its budgetary constraints.
而且法國政府并不是唯一一個向預算限制妥協的政府。
Germany’s recently collapsed, too, because of spending disputes.
德國政府最近也因為支出爭端而崩潰了。
Italy will feel the strain in the next few years.
意大利在接下來的幾年將感受到壓力。
Jean-Fran?ois Robin of Natixis, a bank, expects French spreads over German bunds to come down over the next year, before spiking again ahead of parliamentary elections that are likely to be held in the summer.
法國外貿銀行的讓-弗朗索瓦·羅賓預計，法德國債利差將在明年縮小，然后在可能于夏季舉行的議會選舉前再次飆升。
The respite does not reflect the country’s economic outlook, but rather the fact that France benefits from being at the core of the euro zone, along with Germany.
這種暫緩并不反映法國的經濟前景，而是反映了這樣一個事實，即法國和德國同處于歐元區核心位置并從中受益。
Historically, this position has meant that France could borrow at close-to-German interest rates, while running much more expansionary fiscal policy, notes Davide Oneglia of TS Lombard, a consultancy.
咨詢公司TS倫巴德的達維德·奧內利亞指出，在過去，這一位置意味著法國能以接近德國的利率借款，同時實施更具擴張性的財政政策。
Now it is preventing the country’s borrowing costs from really soaring.
現在，這一位置正在防止法國的借貸成本真正飆升。
Whether markets continue to offer such concessions depends on how politically unstable France becomes.
市場是否會繼續提供這樣的讓步，取決于法國政治的不穩定程度。
There is no immediate threat of a financial crisis, banks remain strong and the European Central Bank (ECB) has made clear that it stands behind member countries’ debt, even if it has not said so explicitly.
目前并不存在金融危機立刻發生的威脅，銀行依然強大，而且歐洲央行即使沒有清楚說明，但也已經態度明確，它會為成員國的債務撐腰。
But unless France manages to show commitment to actually cutting its deficit, the ECB will struggle to step in and buy French bonds.
但除非法國設法表明將致力于切實削減赤字，否則歐洲央行將難以介入并購買法國國債。
Should French spreads continue to widen, the bank’s policymakers will be put in an awkward political position.
如果法國國債的利差繼續擴大，那么歐洲央行的政策制定者將處于尷尬的政治地位。
They may need to prepare for more awkwardness, since France is just one of many countries struggling to make ends meet.
他們可能需要為更多的尷尬做好準備，因為法國只是艱難維持收支相抵的許多國家之一。
