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財經板塊
Agricultural commodities: grain storm
農業商品：糧食風暴
War in Ukraine will cripple global food markets
烏克蘭的戰爭將使全球食品市場癱瘓
In october 1914 the Ottoman Empire, having just joined the first world war, blockaded the Dardanelles Strait, the only route for Russian wheat to travel to Britain and France.
1914年10月，剛剛加入第一次世界大戰的奧斯曼帝國封鎖了達達尼爾海峽，這是俄羅斯小麥運往英國和法國的唯一通道。
The world had entered the conflict with wheat stocks 12% above the five-year average, but losing over 20% of the global traded supply of the crop overnight set food markets ablaze.
全球小麥庫存比5年平均水平高出12%，但一夜之間，全球交易的小麥供應減少了20%，糧食市場一片混亂。
Having risen by a fifth since June 1914, wheat prices in Chicago, the international benchmark, leapt by another 45% over the following quarter.
自1914年6月以來，芝加哥的國際基準小麥價格上漲了五分之一，在接下來的一個季度里又上漲了45%。
Today Russia and Ukraine, respectively the largest and fifth-largest wheat exporters, together account for 29% of international annual sales.
今天，俄羅斯和烏克蘭分別是世界上最大和第五大小麥出口國，兩國小麥年銷售額加在一起占國際小麥年銷售額的29%。
And after several poor harvests, frantic buying during the pandemic and supply-chain issues since, global stocks are 31% below the five-year average.
在經歷了幾次歉收、疫情期間的瘋狂搶購以及之后的供應鏈問題之后，全球小麥庫存比五年平均水平低31%。
But this time it is the threat of embargoes from the West that has lit a bonfire—and the flames are higher than even during the Great War.
但這一次，是西方的禁運威脅點燃了導火索——引發的后果甚至比第一次世界大戰期間還要嚴重。
Wheat prices, which were already 49% above their 2017-21 average in mid-February, have risen by another 30% since the invasion of Ukraine started on February 24th. Uncertainty is sky-high: indicators of price volatility compiled by ifpri, a think-tank, are flashing bright red.
2月中旬，小麥的價格已經比2017-21年平均水平高出49%，自2月24日入侵烏克蘭以來又上漲了30%。未來的不確定性極高：智庫IFPRI編制的價格波動指標亮起了紅燈。
Rabobank, a Dutch lender, reckons wheat prices could climb by another third.
荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)估計小麥價格還會再上漲三分之一。
But the damage to global food supply will extend far beyond the grain—and last longer than the war itself. Together Russia and Ukraine export 12% of the calories traded worldwide.
但這對全球糧食供應的破壞會遠遠超出糧食之外，而且比戰爭本身持續的時間還要長。俄羅斯和烏克蘭出口的卡路里總量占全球總量的12%。
They rank among the top five exporters of many oilseeds and cereals, from barley and corn to sunflowers, consumed by humans and animals.
俄羅斯和烏克蘭的油料種子和谷物出口排全球前五，包括大麥、玉米、向日葵，供人類和動物消耗。
Russia alone is the biggest supplier of key ingredients in the making of fertilisers, without which crops falter or lose nutrients.
俄羅斯是化肥關鍵原料的最大供應國，如果沒有這些原料，作物就會歉收或失去營養。
In February, even before the war started, a food-price index compiled by the un Food and Agriculture Organisation had reached an all-time high; the number of people deemed food-insecure, at 800m, was at its highest for a decade.
今年2月，甚至在戰爭開始之前，聯合國糧農組織編制的食品價格指數已達到歷史新高；食物得不到保障的人數達到8億，為10年來的最高水平。
Many more could soon join them. Higher food prices will also stoke inflation, adding to the price pressures generated by dearer energy.
很快還會有更多的人。食品價格上漲也將加劇通脹，增加能源價格上漲帶來的價格壓力。
The fallout from the war will be felt in three ways: disruption to current grain shipments, low or inaccessible future harvests in Ukraine and Russia, and withered production in other parts of the world.
戰爭的影響將體現在三個方面：當前的糧食運輸中斷，烏克蘭和俄羅斯未來的產量低下或收成艱難，以及世界其他地區的減產。
Start with shipments. In normal times wheat and barley crops are harvested in the summer and exported in the autumn; by February most ships are gone.
先來說運輸。在正常時期，小麥和大麥作物在夏季收獲，在秋季出口; 到了二月，大多數船只都離開了。
But these are not normal times: with global stocks low, big importers of Black Sea wheat, chiefly in the Middle East and North Africa, are anxious to secure more supplies. They are not getting them. Ukrainian ports are shut. Some have been bombed.
但現在不是正常時期:隨著全球庫存的減少，黑海小麥的主要進口國——中東和北非——正急于獲得更多的供應。他們得不到供應。烏克蘭港口關閉。有些已經被炸毀了。
Inland routes, via the north of Ukraine and onwards through Poland, are too great a diversion to be practical. Vessels trying to pick up grain from Russia have been hit by missiles in the Black Sea. Most cannot get insurance.
經過烏克蘭北部和波蘭的內陸航線分流太大，運輸不太現實。試圖從俄羅斯運送糧食的船只在黑海被導彈擊中。其中的大多數都無法獲得保險。
Alternative sources are unaffordable. Last week Egypt cancelled its second wheat tender in a row after receiving only three offers—at a stomach-churning price—down from 20 a fortnight before.
替代資源過于昂貴。上周，埃及在僅收到3份報價后，連續第二次取消了小麥招標——價格從兩周前的20份跌至現在的令人咋舌的水平。
More concerning still, exports of corn, of which Ukraine accounts for nearly 13% of global exports, usually take place through the spring until the early summer.
更令人擔憂的是，玉米出口通常在春季至初夏期間進行，烏克蘭占全球玉米出口的近13%。
Much of it is normally shipped from the port of Odessa, which is bracing for a Russian assault.
其中大部分通常是從敖德薩港口運來的，而敖德薩港口正面臨著俄羅斯的進攻。
