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Things could get much worse should sanctions expand in scope to cover energy purchases or if Russia retaliates against them by reducing its exports.
如果制裁的范圍擴大到能源采購，或者如果俄羅斯通過減少出口來報復制裁，情況可能會變得更糟。
JPMorgan Chase projects that a sustained shut-off of the Russian oil supply might cause prices to rise to $150 per barrel, a level sufficient to knock 1.6% off global gdp while raising consumer prices by another 2%.
摩根大通預計，俄羅斯石油供應的持續(xù)中斷可能導致油價升至每桶150美元，這種價格足以使全球GDP下降1.6%，同時消費者價格將再上漲2%。
The stagflationary shock would carry echoes of the Yom Kippur war of 1973, which sparked the first of the two energy crises of that decade.
滯脹沖擊會讓人想起1973年的贖罪日戰(zhàn)爭，那場戰(zhàn)爭引發(fā)了那十年中兩次能源危機中的第一次。
It greatly worsened an existing inflation problem caused in part by the collapse earlier that year of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates.
它極大地惡化了已有的通貨膨脹問題，部分原因是當年早些時候布雷頓森林固定匯率體系的崩潰。
Today much pricier energy would be layered atop the inflation caused by the pandemic and the associated stimulus.
今天，價格高得多的能源會被置于疫情和相關(guān)刺激措施造成的通脹之上。
If the oil and gas keep flowing, the existing increases in their respective prices will still make life uncomfortable for central banks, who were anyway raising or preparing to raise interest rates.
如果石油和天然氣可以繼續(xù)供應，它們現(xiàn)有的價格漲幅仍然會讓央行坐立難安，因為央行無論如何都會加息或準備加息。
They usually tolerate inflation caused by expensive energy. It tends to quickly dissipate, or even go into reverse.
央行通常會容忍由昂貴的能源引起的通貨膨脹。這種通脹往往會迅速消散，甚至逆轉(zhuǎn)。
But recently they have worried that the persistence of high inflation since last summer might lead companies to think they should continue to increase prices at a rapid pace and workers to continue to ask for higher wages.
但最近，央行擔心，自去年夏天以來持續(xù)存在的高通脹可能會讓企業(yè)認為，它們應該繼續(xù)快速提高物價，工人們也會繼續(xù)要求加薪。
Inflation, in other words, may have taken on a momentum of its own. Further increases in energy prices can only heighten that danger—while adding to the squeeze on growth that higher interest rates bring about.
換句話說，通貨膨脹可能已經(jīng)呈現(xiàn)出了一種勢頭。能源價格的進一步上漲只會加劇這種危險——同時還會進一步擠壓高利率帶來的經(jīng)濟增長。
At present markets are priced for a fairly conventional policy response.
目前，市場是根據(jù)相當常規(guī)的政策回應做出的定價。
Since February 1st investors’ inflation expectations, as revealed by the price of swaps, have risen sharply at a one-year horizon for Britain, America and the euro zone.
從2月1日起，投資者對英國、美國和歐元區(qū)的通貨膨脹預期，跟一年前相比急劇上升，正如互換價格所顯示的那樣。
Yet expectations for longer-term inflation, as measured by long-dated forward swaps, have not changed much.
然而，用遠期互換來衡量的長期通脹預期并沒有多大變化。
Projections of the ecb’s policy rate at the end of the year have barely changed.
人們對歐洲央行年底政策利率的預測幾乎沒有改變。
Investors have priced in another quarter-of-a-percentage-point rise in interest rates this year in both Britain and America.
投資者已經(jīng)消化了英國和美國今年利率將再次上升0.25個百分點的預期。
On March 2nd Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal reserve, indicated that it would still raise rates.
3月2日，美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾表示，美聯(lián)儲仍將加息。
There have, however, been sharp movements in bond yields at longer horizons.
然而，長期來看，債券收益率出現(xiàn)了劇烈波動。
In mid-February yields on five-year German government bonds had been in positive territory for the first time since 2018. They have since fallen to about -0.25%.
2月中旬，五年期德國政府債券收益率自2018年以來首次處于正區(qū)間。自那以來，收益率已降至-0.25%左右。
On March 1st and 2nd the yield on an American ten-year Treasury bond fell from nearly 2% to 1.7%, a greater fall than in any two-day trading period since March 2020, before recovering slightly to 1.9% the next day.
3月1日和2日，美國十年期國債收益率從近2%跌至1.7%，跌幅超過2020年3月以來的任何兩日交易時段，次日略有回升至1.9%。
In other words, investors are betting that today’s inflation, even once exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, will be temporary—and that over the long term interest rates are likely to be a bit lower than on past projections. But that hardly means markets are sanguine.
換句話說，投資者正在押注眼下的通貨膨脹(即便曾因烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭而加劇)只是暫時的，而且長期利率可能會比過去的預測略低。但這并不意味著市場是樂觀的。
In recent years some scholars have argued that low long-term real interest rates reflect in part the impulse to hoard safe assets as tail risks—rare but highly costly events—grow more likely.
近年來，一些學者認為，長期的低實際利率在一定程度上反映了人們囤積安全資產(chǎn)的沖動，因為尾部風險發(fā)生的可能性更大了，尾部風險是很少發(fā)生，但代價高昂的事件。
After two years of a pandemic and with war raging in Europe, that thesis has never seemed so apposite.
在歐洲經(jīng)歷了兩年的疫情和戰(zhàn)爭肆虐之后，這一論點似乎從未如此貼切。
