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Future crops are an even bigger worry. In Ukraine the war may result in lower yields and area planted.
農(nóng)作物的未來更令人擔(dān)憂。在烏克蘭，戰(zhàn)爭可能會導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)量和種植面積的下降。
Winter crops such as wheat and barley, which are sown in October, could be smaller because of a lack of fertiliser and pesticides.
由于缺乏化肥和殺蟲劑，小麥和大麥等10月份播種的冬季作物產(chǎn)量可能會減少。
Spring crops such as corn and sunflowers, the planting of which would normally start imminently, may not get sown at all.
像玉米和向日葵這樣的春季作物通常很快就會開始種植，但現(xiàn)在也許根本就不會播種了。
Leonid Tsentilo, whose farm in central Ukraine grows 7,000 tonnes of wheat a year, says local prices for diesel and plant-protection products have risen by 50% in two weeks. Some of his workers have been shipped off to war.
列昂尼德·岑提洛每年在烏克蘭中部的農(nóng)場種植7000噸小麥，他說當(dāng)?shù)氐牟裼秃椭参锉Ｗo(hù)劑的價(jià)格在兩周內(nèi)上漲了50%。他的一些工人被派去打仗了。
In Russia the risk is not curtailed production but blockaded exports. Although food sales are not yet subject to sanctions, Western banks are reluctant to lend to traders.
而俄羅斯的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不在于減產(chǎn)，而在于出口受阻。盡管食品銷售尚未受到制裁，但西方銀行不愿向貿(mào)易商放貸。
Fear of being fined by governments in the West or shamed by its press is keeping merchants at bay. While Ukraine is “unreachable”, Russia is “untouchable”, says Michael Magdovitz of Rabobank.
由于擔(dān)心被西方政府罰款或被媒體羞辱，商人們都不敢妄動。荷蘭合作銀行的邁克爾·馬格多維茨表示，烏克蘭是“不可到達(dá)的”，而俄羅斯則是“摸都摸不得的”。
Most alarming will be the conflict's impact on agriculture worldwide. The region is a big supplier of critical fertiliser components, including natural gas and potash.
最令人擔(dān)憂的將是沖突對全球農(nóng)業(yè)的影響。沖突發(fā)生的地區(qū)是包括天然氣和鉀肥在內(nèi)的關(guān)鍵化肥成分的重要供應(yīng)地。
Fertiliser prices had already doubled or tripled, depending on the type, even before the war, owing to rising energy and transport costs and sanctions imposed in 2021 on Belarus, which produces 18% of the world's potash, as it cracked down on dissidents.
由于能源和運(yùn)輸成本的上漲，以及白俄羅斯因?yàn)橐庖姴煌?021年遭遇制裁后，化肥價(jià)格甚至在戰(zhàn)前就已經(jīng)翻了一倍或兩倍，具體價(jià)格取決于化肥的種類。白俄羅斯的鉀肥產(chǎn)量占全球的18%。
As Russia, which accounts for 20% of global output, finds it harder to export its own potash, prices are sure to rise further.
占全球總產(chǎn)量20%的俄羅斯發(fā)現(xiàn)自己的鉀肥出口越來越難，鉀肥價(jià)格肯定會進(jìn)一步上漲。
Since four-fifths of the world's potash is traded internationally, the impact of price spikes will be felt in every agricultural region in the world, warns Humphrey Knight of cru, a consultancy.
咨詢公司CRU的漢弗萊·奈特警告稱，由于全球五分之四的鉀肥都是國際交易，全球所有農(nóng)業(yè)地區(qū)都將感受到鉀肥價(jià)格飆升的影響。
As a result of all this, a much greater share of incomes will soon be spent on food.
所有這一切導(dǎo)致的結(jié)果是，人們會在食品上花費(fèi)越來越多的收入。
This will be felt most acutely in the Middle East, Africa and parts of Asia, where some 800m people depend heavily on Black Sea wheat.
中東、非洲和亞洲部分地區(qū)受到的影響最為嚴(yán)重，在這些地區(qū)，約有8億人嚴(yán)重依賴黑海小麥。
That includes Turkey, which supplies much of the southern Mediterranean with flour. Egypt usually buys 70% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine.
其中包括土耳其，它向地中海南部大部分地區(qū)供應(yīng)面粉。埃及通常從俄羅斯和烏克蘭購買70%的小麥。
The latter alone accounts for half of Lebanon's wheat imports. Many others can hardly do without Ukraine's corn, soyabeans and vegetable oil.
僅后者就占黎巴嫩小麥進(jìn)口的一半。其他許多國家離不開烏克蘭的玉米、大豆和植物油。
Meanwhile higher fertiliser and energy costs will crimp farmers' margins everywhere.
與此同時(shí)，更高的化肥和能源成本將擠壓各地農(nóng)民的利潤。
Brazil, a huge producer of meat and agricultural products, imports 46% of its potash from either Russia or Belarus, says Cristiano Veloso of Verde AgriTech, a Brazilian startup.
巴西一家新興公司Verde AgriTech的克里斯蒂亞諾·維羅索說，作為肉類和農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的巨大生產(chǎn)國，巴西46%的碳酸鉀是從俄羅斯或白俄羅斯進(jìn)口的。
Eventually some of the costs will be passed on to the consumer.
最終，部分成本將轉(zhuǎn)嫁到消費(fèi)者身上。
Protectionism may pour more fuel on the fire. National restrictions on fertiliser exports increased last year and could accelerate.
保護(hù)主義可能會火上澆油。去年，全國對化肥出口的限制有所增加，而且可能會加速。
Limits on food exports, or panic-buying by importers, could trigger a price spike of the kind that sparked riots in dozens of countries in 2007-08.
對食品出口的限制，或進(jìn)口商的恐慌性購買，可能會引發(fā)價(jià)格飆升，就像2007-08年在幾十個(gè)國家引發(fā)騷亂那樣。
On March 8th and 9th, respectively, Russia and Ukraine banned wheat exports. Argentina, Hungary, Indonesia and Turkey have announced food-export restrictions in recent days.
3月8日和9日，俄羅斯和烏克蘭分別禁止小麥出口。阿根廷、匈牙利、印度尼西亞和土耳其最近幾天都宣布了食品出口限制。
There is no easy fix. Some of the 160m tonnes of wheat used as animal feed every year could be diverted for human consumption, but substitution may export inflation to other staples.
對于這些問題，沒有簡單的解決辦法。每年在動物飼料上消耗的1.6億噸小麥中，有一部分可能會轉(zhuǎn)移到人類消費(fèi)上，但替代品可能會將通脹轉(zhuǎn)移到其它主食上。
Increasing production in Europe and America and drawing on India's vast strategic stockpile may yield 10-15m tonnes—a substantial quantity, but less than a third of Ukraine's and Russia's combined annual exports.
在歐洲和美洲增加產(chǎn)量，并利用印度龐大的戰(zhàn)略儲備，可能能產(chǎn)出1000 - 1500萬噸——這個(gè)量相當(dāng)大，但還不及烏克蘭和俄羅斯年度出口量的三分之一。
Some could come from farther afield but there are bottlenecks: efforts to export more of Australia's bumper winter-wheat crop have clogged the supply chains between its farms and ports.
還有一些糧食可能來自更遠(yuǎn)的地方，但也存在瓶頸：出口更多澳大利亞豐產(chǎn)的冬小麥的努力已經(jīng)堵塞了農(nóng)場和港口之間的供應(yīng)鏈。
With corn, governments may resort to appropriating some of the 148m tonnes used as bioethanol feed to help plug this year's likely shortfall of 35m tonnes.
至于玉米，政府可能會動用1.48億噸玉米中的一部分作為生物乙醇飼料，以填補(bǔ)今年可能出現(xiàn)的3500萬噸玉米短缺。
Fertiliser shortages are even harder to cover: new potash mines take 5-10 years to build.
化肥短缺則更難解決：新的鉀肥礦需要5-10年才能建成。
The war in Ukraine is already a tragedy. As it ravages the world's breadbasket, a calamity looms.
烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭本就是一場悲劇。當(dāng)它波及到世界糧倉的時(shí)候，一場災(zāi)難又在逼近。
