Finance and economics
財(cái)經(jīng)板塊
House Prices: Coming of age
房?jī)r(jià):到年齡了
Millennials are stoking the property boom at last
千禧一代終于掀起了房地產(chǎn)熱潮
Home ownership had long been a distant dream for many millennials.
對(duì)許多千禧一代來(lái)說(shuō),擁有住房一直是一個(gè)遙遠(yuǎn)的夢(mèng)想。
But after years of putting off marriage, delaying parenthood and battling student debt, the so-called Generation Rent is at last emerging as a big driver of the housing boom in the rich world.
但是,在推遲結(jié)婚、推遲生育、糾纏于學(xué)生債務(wù)多年之后,所謂的“租房一代”終于成為富裕國(guó)家房地產(chǎn)繁榮的一大推動(dòng)力。
Typically defined as those born between 1981 and 1996, millennials make up the largest generation ever in America. As more of them reach their peak buying years, they are becoming a force to be reckoned with in the property market.
千禧一代通常是指出生于1981年至1996年之間的人,是美國(guó)有史以來(lái)人數(shù)最多的一代。隨著他們中越來(lái)越多的人達(dá)到購(gòu)房高峰期,他們正成為房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)中一股不可忽視的力量。
In America they represent the fastest-growing segment of buyers and have accounted for more than half of all mortgage applications over the past two years.
在美國(guó),他們是增長(zhǎng)最快的買家群體,在過(guò)去的兩年里,他們占據(jù)所有抵押貸款申請(qǐng)的一半以上。
CoreLogic, a research firm, estimates that millennial homebuying was responsible for more than 60% of property-sales growth in 2020. British millennials are now more likely to own their home than to rent. And nearly half of adults aged 25-35 in Canada have bought property.
研究公司CoreLogic估計(jì),千禧一代的購(gòu)房對(duì)2020年房地產(chǎn)銷售增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)超過(guò)60%。英國(guó)的千禧一代現(xiàn)在更可能購(gòu)買屬于自己的房子,而不是租房。在加拿大,25-35歲的成年人中有近一半已經(jīng)購(gòu)買了房產(chǎn)。
More millennials will reach the age of 32, the median age for first-time buyers, over the next two years than ever before.
未來(lái)兩年,將有更多的千禧一代達(dá)到32歲,這是首次購(gòu)房者的中值年齡。
If the additional demand is to be satisfied American builders will need to construct as many as 2m houses each year, according to Jefferies, an investment bank. That compares with housing starts of 1.6m in 2021.
根據(jù)投資銀行Jefferies的說(shuō)法,如果要滿足這些額外的需求,美國(guó)的建筑商每年將需要建造多達(dá)200萬(wàn)套房屋。相比之下,2021年新屋開(kāi)工數(shù)為160萬(wàn)套。
But the homebuying frenzy reflects more than millennials simply getting older. Following lockdowns and other sweeping changes to daily life during the pandemic, a growing number of millennials want larger family homes with more dedicated office space for remote work.
但購(gòu)房狂潮不僅僅反映了千禧一代的成長(zhǎng)。隨著疫情期間的封鎖和日常生活的其他全面變化,越來(lái)越多的千禧一代希望擁有更大的家庭住宅,擁有更專用的辦公空間,以便遠(yuǎn)程工作。
Those who already own property are trading up for more space. This, in addition to stamp-duty tax cuts, helped push the number of first-time buyers in Britain to its highest level in nearly two decades in 2021.
那些已經(jīng)擁有房產(chǎn)的人正在交易,購(gòu)買更大的房子。這一舉措,加上印花稅的削減,推動(dòng)了英國(guó)的首次購(gòu)房者數(shù)量在2021年達(dá)到近20年來(lái)的最高水平。
Some have brought forward plans to buy. In America nearly a third of young adults polled by Clever Real Estate, a property firm, said that covid-19 had nudged them into house-hunting earlier than planned.
一些人已經(jīng)有了購(gòu)買計(jì)劃。在美國(guó),接受房地產(chǎn)公司Clever Real Estate調(diào)查的近三分之一的年輕人表示,新冠肺炎讓他們比計(jì)劃提前開(kāi)始看房。
The millennial push is reshaping property markets. For one thing, millennials are swapping flats for family homes. The vast majority of young buyers in America bought a single-family home in 2021. Many are also leaving cities, or trading expensive areas for cheaper ones.
千禧一代的這一舉措正在重塑房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)。首先,千禧一代正在用公寓置換自己的房子。美國(guó)絕大多數(shù)年輕買家在2021年購(gòu)買了一套獨(dú)棟住宅。許多人也在離開(kāi)城市,或者從昂貴的地區(qū)搬向便宜的地區(qū)。
Young adults are less tied to London, says Lucian Cook of Savills, a property firm. The number of millennials in Britain’s smaller cities, such as Manchester, Glasgow, Edinburgh and Bristol, is growing far more quickly than that in the Big Smoke.
來(lái)自房產(chǎn)公司Savills的盧西恩·庫(kù)克表示,年輕的成年人對(duì)倫敦的向往降低了。在曼徹斯特、格拉斯哥、愛(ài)丁堡和布里斯托爾等英國(guó)小城市,千禧一代的人數(shù)增長(zhǎng)速度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)快于大城市。
Remote work is also opening up more affordable places to live. In America buyers are flocking to sunbelt hotspots, like Phoenix and Tampa.
遠(yuǎn)程工作也為人們提供了更多負(fù)擔(dān)得起的居住場(chǎng)所。在美國(guó),買家正蜂擁至陽(yáng)光地帶的熱點(diǎn)地區(qū),如鳳凰城和坦帕。
Zillow, a property firm, estimates that a typical renter in San Francisco would have to set aside 2.4% of their income for six or seven years to save enough for a 20% deposit on a starter home in Austin or Phoenix. For a similar property in San Francisco they would have to save for more than 70 years.
房地產(chǎn)公司Zillow估計(jì),舊金山的一般租房者必須在六到七年的時(shí)間里,將收入的2.4%存起來(lái),才能為奧斯丁或鳳凰城的首套房存夠20%的首付。但在舊金山買一套類似的房產(chǎn),他們得存上70多年。
Will millennial home ownership continue to power the market? The growing number of millennials entering their buying years will keep momentum going, and flexible work could continue to make cheaper areas more attractive.
千禧一代的自有住房會(huì)繼續(xù)推動(dòng)這個(gè)市場(chǎng)嗎?越來(lái)越多的千禧一代到達(dá)購(gòu)房年齡,這一勢(shì)頭將繼續(xù)保持下去,而靈活的工作時(shí)間可能會(huì)繼續(xù)讓更便宜的地區(qū)更具吸引力。
The question is what happens to affordability. Interest rates in many places are going up: the Federal Reserve expects to raise rates six more times this year. That could cool demand and increase mortgage-servicing costs.
問(wèn)題是人們的負(fù)擔(dān)能力會(huì)發(fā)生什么變化。許多地方的利率都在上升:美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)預(yù)計(jì)今年將再加息六次。這可能會(huì)降低需求,增加抵押貸款服務(wù)的成本。
Rising interest rates in the 1980s, for instance, depressed housing markets just as baby-boomers reached their peak buying years. The difference now, though, is that rates are low by historical standards and expected to rise only gradually.
例如,上世紀(jì)80年代,當(dāng)嬰兒潮一代達(dá)到購(gòu)房高峰期時(shí),利率的上升導(dǎo)致了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的蕭條。然而,現(xiàn)在的不同之處在于,從歷史的角度來(lái)衡量,現(xiàn)在的利率還比較低,而且預(yù)計(jì)只會(huì)逐漸提高。
Severe constraints on housing supply, however, may mean that affordability remains strained. Shortages of labour and materials will make it harder for builders to put new homes on the market.
然而,住房供應(yīng)的嚴(yán)重限制可能意味著人們的負(fù)擔(dān)能力仍然吃緊。勞動(dòng)力和材料的短缺會(huì)讓建筑商更難將新房投放市場(chǎng)。
Record-low inventory and fierce bidding wars could mean fewer homes to choose from. For some millennials, the dream of home ownership may still prove out of reach.
創(chuàng)下新低的房產(chǎn)庫(kù)存和激烈的競(jìng)購(gòu)戰(zhàn)意味著房屋選擇越來(lái)越少。對(duì)某些千禧一代來(lái)說(shuō),擁有住房的夢(mèng)想可能仍然遙不可及。
Correction: In last week's story on windfall taxes, article Power Grab, we said that America's tax on oil producers was implemented in 1986. In fact, it began in 1980. Sorry!
糾錯(cuò):在上周的“意外利潤(rùn)稅:爭(zhēng)奪權(quán)力”的文章中,我們說(shuō)美國(guó)在1986年對(duì)石油生產(chǎn)商征稅,事實(shí)上,它從1980年就開(kāi)始了。抱歉!