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Since Britain voted to leave the European Union (EU) in June 2016, Leavers have been gloating.
自2016年6月英國投票離開歐盟（EU）以來，脫歐派一直洋洋得意。
Despite the Remain camp's dire predictions, the economy seemed to trundle on well enough.
盡管留歐陣營做出了可怕的預測，但英國的經濟似乎運轉良好。
But the crowing is dying down. Figures released on August 9th showed that Britain's GDP shrank in the second quarter.
但這種得意正在消亡。8月9日公布的數據顯示英國第二季度GDP有所下降。
And a growing body of research suggests that Brexit-related uncertainty is doing subtle but serious economic damage.
也有越來越多的研究表明，和脫歐相關的不確定正在造成微妙但嚴重的經濟損害。
A paper published early this year by Meredith Crowley,
今年年初，由劍橋大學的梅雷迪思·克勞利、
Oliver Exton and Lu Han of the University of Cambridge reckons that uncertainty over trade policy has dented export prospects.
奧利弗·?？怂诡D以及盧漢共同發表的一篇論文認為貿易政策的不確定性削弱了出口前景。
Had the vote not taken place, 5% more firms would have exported new products to the EU in 2016 alone.
如果沒有脫歐投票，預計僅在2016年還將會有5%的公司出口新產品。
After the referendum economists from the Bank of England, the University of Nottingham
公投后，來自英國銀行、諾丁漢大學以及斯坦福大學的經濟學家
and Stanford University set up the "Decision-maker panel", a survey that regularly polls executives across the country's industries and regions.
組建了“決策者小組”，定期對全國各行業和各地區高管進行調查。
In a new paper the researchers examine the responses of 5,900 firms,
在一篇新論文中，研究人員對5900家公司的反饋進行了調查，
representing 14% of privatesector jobs, to gauge the effect of Brexit uncertainty on business.
以評估脫歐不確定性對商業的影響，這些公司占私營部門就業崗位的14%。
The results are startling. The uncertainty that comes with a rise in oil prices or an unexpected bank failure can be costly,
結果令人吃驚。油價上漲或銀行意外倒閉所帶來的不確定性雖然代價高昂，
but typically abates as more information becomes available. Brexit uncertainty is unusually persistent—
但通常會隨著可獲得信息的增多而減弱。脫歐的不確定性異常持久—
after all, three years after the vote, the terms of departure are still unclear.
畢竟，投票三年后，脫歐條款仍然不確定。
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