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The authors track the share of bosses reporting that Brexit is one of the top three sources of uncertainty, if not the biggest, facing their business.
作者們追蹤了這些高管們的股票并報告稱就算脫歐不是他們企業所面臨的最大不確定性，也是三大不確定性來源之一。
This remained elevated a full two years after the referendum,
在公投結束整整兩年后，這一不確定性仍在增長，
then rose further in 2018 as stalling talks with the EU raised the odds of a no-deal Brexit.
然后在2018年，和歐盟談判暫緩增加了無協議脫歐的概率，不確定性進一步增加。
Bosses reporting greater uncertainty also appear to have scaled back investment more.
聲稱不確定性增加了的高管們似乎也削減了更多投資。
But the depressing effect is not quite what forecasters had envisaged in 2016.
但這一令人沮喪的影響和預測者們2016年所設想的不太一樣。
They had pencilled in a steep drop in investment immediately after the vote that would ease as firms adjusted to the new world.
他們預測在公投后，隨著公司調整適應了新世界，投資的極具下滑會得到緩解。
But in fact the drag on investment has worsened over time. (The effect of uncertainty on hiring is more ambiguous.)
但事實上，隨著時間的推移，對投資的阻礙已經惡化。（不確定性對招聘的影響更加模糊。）
Importantly, the deceleration in investment has had significant knock-on effects on Britain's productivity, which even before the referendum was dismal.
重要的是，投資減速對英國生產能力造成了重大連鎖反應，即便是在公投之前，英國生產能力就很糟糕。
That is partly because managers have been forced to spend valuable time planning.
部分原因是因為經理人被迫花費寶貴的時間做規劃。
Between November 2018 and January 2019, nearly three-quarters of bosses put aside time each week to prepare for various outcomes.
在2018年11月到2019年1月之間，近四分之三的的高管們每周都會抽出時間為各種結果做準備。
But uncertainty has also been a bigger burden on exporters, which tend to be more productive than firms catering to the home market.
但不確定性也給出口者帶來了更大的負擔，他們往往比迎合國內市場的公司更具生產能力。
All told, productivity is 2-5% lower than it would have been without the uncertainty.
總的來說，如果沒有這種不確定性，生產率會比現在低2-5%。
Brexit still carries plenty of unknowns. The effect on Britain's economy, though, is becoming ever clearer.
脫歐仍然有著很多的不確定性。雖然這種不確定性對英國經濟的影響變得越來越清晰。
譯文由可可原創，僅供學習交流使用，未經許可請勿轉載。
