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Almost two years ago Arvind Subramanian, then India's chief economic adviser,
兩年前，印度時任首席經濟顧問阿文德·薩勃拉曼尼亞
published a little-noticed passage in the finance ministry's annual economic survey.
在財政部的年度經濟調查中發表了一篇不太引人注意的文章。
The previous two years posed a "puzzle", he wrote.
他寫道，前兩年是一個“謎”。
India had reported miracle growth in GDP (averaging 7.5%) despite miserable growth in investment, exports and credit.
印度報道，盡管投資、出口和貸款增長慘淡，但GDP出現了奇跡般的增長（平均增長7.5%）。
He looked for comparable examples elsewhere since 1991. He found none.
他一直在到處尋找1991年以來的類似例子，但卻沒有找到。
No country had grown faster than 7% in such circumstances. None, in fact, had grown faster than 5%.
在這種情況下，沒有一個國家的GDP增長超過7%。事實上，連超過5%的都沒有。
India's rapid expansion, he warned, might be hard to sustain.
他警告稱，印度的快速增長或許難以證實。
Or, indeed, hard to believe. Mr Subramanian's official position meant he could not say that loudly then.
或者，確實難以置信。薩勃拉曼尼亞先生當時的公職意味著他不能大肆宣揚。
But he is saying it now. In a paper published by Harvard University, where he is a visiting fellow,
但現在他說出來了。現在他是哈佛大學的客座人員，在哈佛大學發表的一篇論文中
he argues that India's growth figures have been greatly overstated.
他稱印度的增長數字被極大地夸大了。
From the 2011-12 fiscal year to 2016-17, its economy officially expanded by about 7% a year,
從2011-12財年到2016-17財年，官方稱其經濟年增長約7%，
eventually outpacing China's to become the fastest-growing big economy.
最終超過中國，成為增長最快的經濟大國。
That boast has helped entice over $350bn of foreign investment in the past seven years.
在過去7年中，這種吹噓幫助吸引了超過3500億美元的國外投資
But India's true growth, Mr Subramanian thinks, is more like 4.5%.
但印度真實的經濟增長，薩勃拉曼尼亞先生認為，更有可能是4.5%。
Rather than outperforming China, India has underperformed Indonesia.
印度的表現沒有勝過中國，甚至還不如印度尼西亞。
His paper starts by reporting a variety of indicators that have slowed sharply since 2011-12, even as growth has remained steady.
他的論文首先報告了一系列自2011年至2012年以來急劇放緩的指標，盡管經濟增長一直保持穩定。
He then tries to measure the size of the problem. Looking at more than 70 countries from 2002 to 2016,
然后他試圖衡量問題的規模。他研究了從2002年到2016年間的70多個國家，
he estimates the typical relationship between GDP growth and four other indicators: the growth of credit, exports, imports and electricity.
并評估了GDP增長和四個其他指標（貸款增長、出口、進口和電力）之間的典型關系。
Before 2011 that relationship also held in India. But after it, India became an outlier.
在2011年前，這種關系也存在于印度。但之后，印度成為了一個異常。
Its reported growth was over 7%, even as the weakness of imports, exports and credit suggested growth closer to 4.5%.
其報道的經濟增長超過7%，即便疲弱的進出口和貸款表明其增長接近4.5%。
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