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Another threat is a rising oil price. In September the price of Brent crude surpassed $80 per barrel for the first time since 2014,
另一個威脅是油價的增長。9月，布倫特原油價格自2014年以來首次超過80美元\桶，
driven in part by falling Venezuelan supply and the prospect of American sanctions on Iran. It now stands at around $82.
而出現這種現象部分是由于委內瑞拉石油供應量下降以及美國對伊朗實施制裁的前景?，F在石油價格為82美元。
Costly fuel used to threaten the American economy. Today, however, it spurs investment in shale rigs.
過去高額的燃料會對美國經濟造成威脅，而今卻刺激了其對頁巖油設備的投資。
That gives America a natural hedge against oil-price shocks, even though, in the short term, limited pipeline capacity might mean investment responds only slowly.
這給了美國一個避免石油價格沖擊的天然避險策略，雖然短期來看，有限的管線輸送能力或許意味著投資回報緩慢。
Finally, there is Mr Trump's trade war. America will eventually suffer from the distortive effects of rising tariffs,
最后，還有特朗普的貿易戰爭。美國最終將遭遇關稅上漲的扭曲性影響，
but it is not all that dependent on trade to fuel demand in the short term.
但要在短期內刺激需求并不完全依賴于貿易。
Forecasts of the effect of existing tariffs on American growth and inflation predict only a small impact.
預計現有關稅對美國經濟增長和通貨膨脹的影響并不大。
The result is that the trade war so far also looks like an asymmetric shock—certainly as far as China is concerned.
這是因為到目前為止，這場貿易戰似乎是一種非對稱性沖擊—就中國而言是這樣的。
The danger is that America's outperformance pushes the dollar even higher, leading to more volatility in global finance and crimping growth in emerging markets.
危險之處在于美國的優勢推動美元增值，給全球金融造成更多的不定性，也給新興市場的增長造成更多阻礙。
Yet America's boom will not last for ever. Tax cuts will no longer provide incremental stimulus after 2019.
但美國的繁榮不會一直持續下去。2019年后，減稅政策將不再有增值刺激。
Some forecasters fret that an end to the largesse, together with higher interest rates, may be sufficient to tip the country into recession by 2020.
一些預測者擔心截至2020年，慷慨救助的終止加上更高的利率，或許這足以讓一個國家陷入經濟衰退。
Analysts expect America's economy, with its ageing population, to expand by less than 2% a year in the long run.
分析家預測隨著其老齡化加劇，美國經濟的增長最終不會超過2%。
That suggests that, unless productivity surges, a slowdown must eventually come.
這表明，除非生產力暴增，否則經濟下滑必將到來。
The question then is whether the rest of the world can withstand, let alone make up for, an eventual slowdown in America.
那么到那時其他國家是否能抵擋得住美國最終的經濟下滑都是個問題，更別提要進行彌補了。
Not long ago, the consensus may have been that it could cope. Now there is more to worry about.
不久前，各方或許還一致認為其可以應對。現在有更多事情需要擔心了。
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