評論
打印
Britain Scotland's independence referendum
英國 蘇格蘭獨(dú)立公投
Och aye the No
還是投反對票吧
Scotland ponders whether independence and separation are the same thing
蘇格蘭思考獨(dú)立和分離是不是一回事
Should Scotland be an independent country or not?
蘇格蘭應(yīng)不應(yīng)該獨(dú)立？
In negotiations concluded on October 15th, David Cameron secured the single in-or-out question that he wanted. But the choice facing Scottish voters in 2014, and the campaigns to influence them, will not be nearly as simple as the words on the ballot suggest.
在10月15日結(jié)束的談判中，大衛(wèi)·卡梅倫如愿確保了公投只涉及簡單的是或否的問題。但是，蘇格蘭選民到2014年面臨的選擇，以及之后會對他們造成影響的各種競選活動，將遠(yuǎn)不如選票上的那幾個字那樣簡單。
John Curtice, a psephologist at Strathclyde University, says that Scots divide into three roughly equally-sized camps. The first lot want independence. The second prefer the status quo. A final group, accounting for about 30% of those polled, would like to stay in the union but also want more powers for Scotland. In effect, they are the swing voters. With two years to go until the referendum, the campaigns are already converging on them.
斯特拉斯克萊德大學(xué)的選舉學(xué)家約翰·柯蒂斯表示，蘇格蘭選民分為三個規(guī)模大致相同的陣營。一個陣營希望蘇格蘭獨(dú)立。一個希望保持現(xiàn)狀。最后一個陣營占參與民調(diào)的人數(shù)的30%，他們?nèi)韵肓粼诼?lián)合王國里，但也想中央下放給蘇格蘭更多權(quán)力。事實上，他們屬于搖擺選民。盡管距公投還有兩年時間，各類競選活動已經(jīng)在向他們靠攏了。
The separatist Scottish National Party (SNP) will try to woo them by making independence seem trivial. The party has already underlined its enthusiasm for the queen, the BBC, the pound, the Bank of England’s interest rates and British opt-outs from irksome European Union rules. Its leader, Alex Salmond, talks of a “social union” between England and a newly-independent Scotland. But he will have a hard time convincing Scots he can deliver these things. Independent Scottish participation in sterling, EU opt-outs and the BBC are not, and will never be, in his gift.
獨(dú)立派的蘇格蘭民族黨（SNP）將通過弱化獨(dú)立的重要性嘗試爭取這類選民的支持。該黨已經(jīng)強(qiáng)調(diào)其愛戴女王、關(guān)注英鎊和英格蘭銀行利率并支持英國選擇不受歐盟那些討人厭的規(guī)矩的約束。黨領(lǐng)袖阿歷克斯·薩爾蒙德也談?wù)撚⒏裉m和新獨(dú)立的蘇格蘭之間的 “社會聯(lián)合”。但他想要讓蘇格蘭選民相信他可以做到這些事情，還需要費(fèi)一番功夫。蘇格蘭獨(dú)立后是否繼續(xù)使用英鎊，是否在對待歐盟問題上與英格蘭保持一致，是否會讓BBC覆蓋蘇格蘭，都不是、而且也永遠(yuǎn)不會是由他隨意決定的。
Unionists, meanwhile, are trying to convince Scots that voting “no” would result in a hefty dose of new powers. On signing the referendum agreement, Mr Cameron called on Scots in favour of more devolution to vote to stay in the United Kingdom. Labour has launched a commission to draw up a new devolution package, which will report next year and advance a final set of proposals in 2014. The Liberal Democrats have already proposed far-reaching changes, including a new federal structure for the entire union. Under their plan, Scotland would raise about two thirds of the money it spends.
與此同時，統(tǒng)一派則試圖說服蘇格蘭人，投否定票會使蘇格蘭獲得大量新的權(quán)力。在簽署公投協(xié)議時，卡梅倫呼吁支持權(quán)力下放的蘇格蘭人投票留在聯(lián)合王國里。工黨已經(jīng)成立了一個委員會來設(shè)計一整套新的權(quán)力下放議案，該委員會將于明年提出報告，并在2014年拿出最終方案。自由民主黨已提議進(jìn)行影響深遠(yuǎn)的改革，其中包括在整個王國建立一個新的聯(lián)邦架構(gòu)。根據(jù)他們的計劃，蘇格蘭獲得的中央撥款將增加三分之二。
Jeremy Purvis, of the pressure group Devo Plus, hopes that the unionist parties’ schemes will coalesce in the run-up to the referendum. He claims this will present voters with a clear set of commitments, to feature in all three main parties’ manifestos for the 2015 election, showing that a vote against separation is not a vote for the status quo.
壓力集團(tuán)Devo Plus的杰里米·珀維斯希望，統(tǒng)一派各黨在公投的預(yù)備階段就能將各方方案合而為一。他聲稱這將使選民看到一整套明確的承諾，并要求使其成為三個主要政黨2015年大選宣言的重頭戲，從而告訴選民，投票反對分裂并不等于投票支持維持現(xiàn)狀。
If that happens, much of the wind will be taken out of Mr Salmond’s sails. He may be a romantic Caledonian nationalist but many SNP voters (and even some party members) would be perfectly satisfied with the advanced devolution proposed by the unionist parties. Nationalist hopes that a busy Scottish cultural calendar in 2014 and participation by 16- and 17-year-old voters will significantly boost the separatist turnout are optimistic at best.
如果珀維斯所言成真，薩爾蒙德就會受到出其不意的打擊。他也許是一位浪漫的蘇格蘭民族主義者，但許多蘇格蘭民族黨的選民（甚至包括民族黨黨員）將會心滿意足地接受統(tǒng)一派各黨提出的權(quán)利下放方案。但是，民族黨希望2014年的各類蘇格蘭文化節(jié)及16至17歲的選民的加入能提高獨(dú)立投票率，這也算得上樂觀。
So the referendum is forcing the SNP to make concessions to the union, while pushing unionists towards further devolution. The gap between the visions set forth by the two sides, while roomy, is shrinking. It now concerns questions of identity—citizenship, flags, titles, membership of international organisations—more than retail politics. Can Scotland be sufficiently independent within the UK? Unless Mr Salmond can persuade the average voter that it cannot, the union is safe.
因此，公投正迫使蘇格蘭民族黨對聯(lián)合王國作出讓步，同時敦促統(tǒng)一派政黨進(jìn)一步下放權(quán)力。雙方愿景之間的差距盡管很大，卻也正在縮小。現(xiàn)在雙方關(guān)注的不僅僅是零售政治，還有身份方面的問題，即公民身份、旗幟、名號及在國際組織中的資格。蘇格蘭能否在聯(lián)合王國中獲得充分的獨(dú)立？除非薩爾蒙德可以讓普通選民相信不能，否則聯(lián)合王國還是聯(lián)合王國。翻譯：陳莎莎
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