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經濟學人:美國與伊斯蘭國 再擔重任

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America and Islamic State

美國與伊斯蘭國
Mission relaunched
再擔重任
The fight against Islamic State will help define America's role in the world
打擊伊斯蘭國能幫助美國定位自己的國際角色
FOR more than three years, Barack Obama has been trying to avoid getting into a fight in Syria. But this week, with great tracts of the Middle East under the jihadist's knife, he at last faced up to the inevitable. On September 23rd America led air strikes in Syria against both the warriors of Islamic State (IS) and a little-known al-Qaeda cell, called the Khorasan group, which it claimed was about to attack the West. A president who has always seen his main mission as nation-building at home is now using military force in six countries—Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia.
三年有余,奧巴馬一直避免卷入敘利亞的戰斗。但在本周,隨著大片中東土地在圣戰主義者的利刃下淪陷,奧巴馬終做出在所難免的決定。9月23日,美軍領導發動敘利亞境內空襲,同時打擊“伊斯蘭國”和一個名為“呼羅珊集團”的基地組織分支,該集團尚未出名,但美國稱其預備對西方國家發起恐怖襲擊。這位一向把其工作重心放在國家內部建設的總統現在對六個國家動用軍事力量,包括敘利亞,伊拉克,阿富汗,巴基斯坦,也門和索馬里。
The Syrian operation is an essential counterpart to America's attacks against IS in Iraq. Preventing the group from carving out a caliphate means, at the very least, ensuring that neither of these two countries affords it a haven. But more than the future of IS is at stake in the streets of Raqqa and Mosul. Mr Obama's attempt to deal with the jihadists is also a test of America's commitment to global security. It is a test that he has been failing until now.
敘利亞空襲是呼應美國對伊拉克境內“伊斯蘭國”打擊的重要行動。美國要防止“伊斯蘭國”在中東地區站穩腳跟,或者至少,保證這兩個國家都不會成為該組織的避難所。但是不僅“伊斯蘭國”在拉卡和摩蘇爾的未來發展岌岌可危,奧巴馬總統如何應對圣戰分子,其做法也是對美國“世界安全衛士”承諾的一次考核。直到這一刻,奧巴馬總算給了這次考核一個合格的答復。

IS et al

“伊斯蘭國”及其它
The sense that America is locked in relative decline has been growing in recent years, as it has languished under the shadow of the financial crisis and two long, difficult wars. Why should a newly rich country like China take lectures about how to run its affairs from a president who struggles even to get his own budget through? America, meanwhile, seems swamped by the forces of disorder, either unable or unwilling to steady a world that is spinning out of control. IS embodies this frightening trend. It is, in the jargon, a non-state actor, and it thrives on chaos. With each new humiliation of the governments in Iraq and Syria, it has accumulated more wealth, territory and recruits.
鑒于美國受金融風暴和兩次拖沓、艱苦的戰爭影響,近些年一直有質疑美國在走下坡路的論調。對于一個連自己國家預算都擺不定的總統,中國這種財富新銳國家又有什么向其取經的必要呢?同時,美國似乎陷入了混亂力量的泥潭中,既不愿、也沒有能力穩定這個逐漸失控的世界。“伊斯蘭國”的事件正說明了這一駭人趨勢。術語中“伊斯蘭國”應屬于一個非國家行為體,它就建立在一片混亂之上。它不斷給伊拉克政府和敘利亞政府抹上新的屈辱,由此聚斂財富、土地和兵力。
Its rise has also reflected American policy. First, the poorly thought-out intervention of George W. Bush, typified by the rash “Mission Accomplished” banner that greeted him on the USS Abraham Lincoln in May 2003 after his invasion of Iraq. Then Mr Obama's studious inaction. When Syrians rose up against the regime of Bashar Assad, the president stood back in the hope that things would sort themselves out—leaving Mr Assad free to commit atrocities against his own people. Even when Mr Assad crossed “the red line” of using chemical weapons, the superpower did not punish him. About 200,000 Syrians have died and 10m have been driven from their homes. Denied early American support, the moderate Syrian opposition has fragmented, leaving the field to the ruthless and well-organised IS.
“伊斯蘭國”的崛起也反映了美國政策的失誤。第一樁錯是喬治·W·布什的種種輕率行為:其標志就是2003年5月在迎接其從伊拉克凱旋的林肯號上公然寫著“使命完結”的大幅標語。第二樁錯是奧巴馬政府的不作為:敘利亞人民奮起反抗巴沙爾·阿薩德政權時,奧巴馬總統退居幕后,指望事情能自己好轉起來—他的不作為使得阿薩德更加肆意妄為,踐踏百姓。甚至在阿薩德動用化學武器的行為已然越界時,美國這個超級大國都沒有對其嚴懲。他的做法導致約20萬敘利亞人民死亡,超過1000萬人被驅逐出境。沒有美國及時的幫助,溫和的敘利亞反對派分崩離析,令這個國家陷入精心組織、殘暴無情的“伊斯蘭國”控制之下。
Standing back has not worked well elsewhere in the world, either. Mr Obama has spoken about the limits to American power—exhorting other governments with a stake in today's system to do their bit to keep the world safe. He wanted the United States to be seen less as a unilateral bully, more as the leader of world opinion. Yet when America stepped back, its allies stepped back, too. The countries that most eagerly came forward were its rivals, such as Russia and China.
這種不作為的做法在任何地方都行不通。奧巴馬說美國的力量是有限的,他想要當今世界其它有點能力的政府也對維護世界和平貢獻一份力。他不想讓美國看上去是個只會動武的惡霸,而想讓其成為意見領袖。然而美國沒有發聲時,它的伙伴國也沒有做出回應。那些自告奮勇站出來的國家都是它的對手,如俄羅斯和中國。
IS has induced a change of heart among the American people. Before vicious extremists seized the city of Mosul and began to cut off Western heads on social media, Americans doubted the merit of further military action in the Middle East. When they realised that IS threatened them directly, they began to demand protection. Mr Obama therefore has a chance not just to strike a blow for order in the Middle East, but also to give the declinists pause.
“伊斯蘭國”的行為誘發了美國人心態的變化。在這群狠毒的極端分子攻占摩蘇爾城,砍下西方媒體記者的頭顱之前,美國國民尚質疑對中東地區采取進一步軍事行動是否合理。當他們意識到伊斯蘭國對自己的威脅時,就立馬要求采取行動,保護自己了。奧巴馬這下不僅要重整中東秩序,還要一掃美國衰敗論的論調。
From axis of evil to network of death
從“邪惡軸心”到“死亡之網”
He has brute force on his side. The disastrous mismanagement of post-invasion Iraq has tended to eclipse the overwhelming potency of American firepower at the beginning. In six short weeks in the spring of 2003 America and its allies defeated the 375,000 troops of Saddam Hussein with the loss of only 138 American lives. Never in history has a single country had such military dominance. It has not suddenly evaporated.
奧巴馬手握強大兵力,起初美國軍火的壓倒性力量似乎受到其在伊拉克未處理得當的戰后布置的影響。但想想在2003年春天,短短六周里美軍和其盟軍就以138名美國士兵的代價擊退了薩達姆·侯賽因的37萬5千人大軍。歷史上從沒有哪個國家在軍事上擁有如此的統治地位,這種強大的地位即使受到影響,也不可能在一夕間消失。
The bigger question is whether Mr Obama can carry off delicate diplomacy. The lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan is that firepower alone will not prevail. Indeed, if America comes to be seen by Sunni Arabs as nothing more than a Shia air force, strikes will only bind IS to the local people.
問題在于奧巴馬總統是否擁有精妙的外交手段。從在伊拉克和阿富汗的教訓來看,光有長槍大炮不見得能讓美國穩居上風。要是在遜尼派的眼中,美國和一支什葉派空軍沒什么分別的話,難說當地人民不會同“伊斯蘭國”攜起手來。
If he is to win the argument in Iraq and Syria, Mr Obama needs coalitions and partnerships. For that he must get the diplomacy right. So far he has done well. He insisted on the replacement of Nuri al-Maliki, the Shia-chauvinist former prime minister of Iraq, with Haider al-Abadi, who is making efforts to bring Sunnis into government. He sent John Kerry, his secretary of state, to recruit regional Sunni powers such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan, to try to persuade Sunnis in Iraq and Syria that he is not taking sides against their branch of Islam. America has argued to the United Nations that its intervention—requested by Iraq but not Syria—is legal under Article 51 of the UN's charter. Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general, appears to have accepted that argument; so should Britain's Parliament, which will vote on whether to help America.
奧巴馬要想贏得伊拉克和敘利亞的輿論支持,就得發展盟友,而這就需要他用到外交手段。到目前為止,他做得還不錯。他堅持用Haider al-Abadi代替伊拉克前總理,什葉派沙文主義者努里·馬利基(Nuri al-Maliki),前者正努力讓遜尼教徒進入政府。他派遣國務卿約翰·克里(John Kerry)游說遜尼派強國,如沙特阿拉伯和約旦,讓它們幫忙說服伊拉克和敘利亞的遜尼派勢力相信美國并沒有反對他們的教派。他向聯合國辯稱自己的介入—是伊拉克要求的,而不是敘利亞—根據聯合國章程第51條表明,是合法的。聯合國秘書長潘基文似乎接受了這種說法,而英國議會即將就是否幫助美國做出投票表決,其也應當接受這種說法。
There is much more for Mr Obama to do. The coalition-building is not complete. Turkey, a NATO member, is at last suggesting it favours action against IS, but it needs to be seen to help. Holding the alliance together will require patience, flexibility and a judicious mix of bullying and seduction. Mr Obama will have to put in many more long hours on the telephone with world leaders than he has done so far. And even if he succeeds in substantially destroying IS, new horrors may emerge from the ensuing vacuum if he does not help benign local forces to fill it.
奧巴馬要做的還有很多,他還要繼續發展聯盟。北約成員國土耳其最終表明它同意打擊“伊斯蘭國”,但還沒有實際行動。聯合各同盟國需要耐心,靈活應變力和軟硬兼施的高明手段。奧巴馬大概得拿出比以往都多的時間,同各國領袖好好煲一煲電話粥。而且即使“伊斯蘭國”組織被成功摧毀,如果他沒能幫助當地溫和勢力及時填補空缺,新的麻煩又會接踵而至。
Americans will grumble about the superpower's lot. Of course, European allies can do more; of course, Asia's emerging powers should support the world order. But it is also plainly in America's interest to stay involved—and, when necessary, to show that it will put its might behind right, if only to deter the world's tyrants and terrorists from further mischief. Although the mission to stop IS will be long and hard, it is one that no other nation could even contemplate. Mr Obama is right to relaunch it. Now he must see it through.
美國人也要抱怨其身處超級大國的煩惱。誠然,歐洲同盟國可以多做些貢獻,亞洲的新興國家也應當幫助維護世界秩序。但是說白了,美國的身處其中,并且在必要時動用武力伸張正義,制止暴君和恐怖分子的進一步作惡,對美國本身也是有利的。阻止“伊斯蘭國”擾亂秩序的使命是個艱難的持久戰,除了美國外沒有哪個國家能夠擔當。奧巴馬重新承擔使命的做法是正確的,現在他必須堅持到底。
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