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經濟學人:人口統計學 時髦與蹣跚齊行

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Demography

人口統計學
Hip and hobbling
時髦與蹣跚齊行
Not all towns are desperate to attract young people
并不是所有城鎮都渴望吸引年輕人
Nationally, an ageing population is a problem. But locally it can be a boon. The over-50s control 80% of Britain's wealth, and like to spend it on houses and high-street shopping. The young “generation rent”, by contrast, is poor, distractible and liable to shop online.
在國際上,人口老齡化是個問題。但在地方范圍內,這可能是個福音。在英國,50歲以上的人群掌握著80%的財富,并樂于將這些財富用于購置房產和商場購物。相比而言,年輕的“租房一代”經濟比較拮據,很容易分心,且依賴網上購物。
People aged between 50 and 74 spend twice as much as the under-30s on cinema tickets. Between 2000 and 2010 restaurant spending by those aged 65-74 increased by 33%, while the under-30s spent 18% less. The pension pots liberated by George Osborne's budget earlier this year will likely pour into property. And while the young still struggle to find work, older people are retiring later. During the financial crisis full-time employment fell for every age group but the over-65s, and there has been a rash of older entrepreneurs. Pensioners also support the working population by volunteering: some 100 retirees in Christchurch help out as business mentors.
年齡在50到74歲之間的人群花在電影票上的錢是30歲以下人群的兩倍之多。在2000年到2010年間,65到74歲人群的餐廳費用增長了33%,而30歲以下人群則減少了18%。今年年初因喬治·奧斯本的新財政預算案而被釋放的養老金池將很可能大量涌入流通市場。當年輕人還在找工作的苦海中掙扎時,老年人的退休年齡卻越來越推后了。金融危機期間,各個年齡階層的全職工作率都降低了,只有65歲以上的人群沒有受到影響,并且還出現了大批的老年企業家。領取養老金的人還通過志愿服務來幫助工作人群:克萊斯特徹奇就有約100名退休人員志愿成為企業導師。

Even if they wanted to, most small towns and cities could not capture the cool kids. Mobile young professionals cluster, and greatly prefer to cluster in London. Even supposed meccas like Manchester are ageing: clubs in that city are becoming members-only, and there are an increasing number of places, as one resident puts it, that “a 19-year-old wouldn't be seen dead in”. Towns that aim too young, like Bracknell and Chippenham, can find their high streets full of closed La Senzas (a lingerie chain) and struggling tattoo parlours. Outside Britain's capital, high concentrations of youth are commonly tied to high unemployment rates.

即使很多小城鎮希望吸引年輕人,它們也做不到。流動的年輕人喜歡扎堆,尤其是喜歡聚集在倫敦。即使是像曼徹斯特這樣所謂的麥加圣地也在逐漸老齡化:城市里的俱樂部正轉向會員制,正如一個當地居民所說,越來越多的地方“看不到一個十九歲的少年在其中醉生夢死”。像布拉科內爾和切本哈姆這樣定位于年齡過小的年輕人的城市,很容易發現自己的商業區滿是倒閉的La Senzas(一內衣連鎖店)和艱難經營的紋身室。在英國首都之外,年輕人的聚集通常都與高失業率捆綁在一起。
Companies often lag behind local authorities in working this out. They are London-obsessed, and have been slow to appreciate the growing economic heft of the old—who are assumed, often wrongly, to stick with products they learned to love in their youth. But Caroyln Freeman of Revelation Marketing reckons Britain could be on the verge of a marketing surge directed at the grey pound, “similar to what we saw with the pink”. The window will not remain open forever: soon the baby boomers will start to ail, and no one else alive today is likely to have such a rich retirement.
公司總是要比地方機構晚一步發現這個問題。他們癡迷于倫敦,并在欣賞日益增長的老年人不斷提升的經濟地位方面顯得很遲鈍——老年人通常被錯誤認為只會購買年輕時就認定了的產品。但來自Revelation Marketing(啟示營銷)的卡羅琳·弗里曼推測英國可能處于瞄準老年人錢包的營銷邊緣,“與我們從嬰兒身上看到的潛力相似”。這么一個機會不會永遠處于空窗期:很快嬰兒潮世代的人年歲將會增長,而今天也再沒有其他人會擁有這么好的退休待遇。
Meanwhile, with the over-50s holding the purse strings, the towns that draw them are likely to grow more and more pleasant. The lord mayor of Manchester, Sue Cooley, notes that decent restaurants and nice shops spring up in the favoured haunts of the old, just as they do in the trendy, revamped boroughs of London. Latimer House, a Christchurch furniture store full of retro clothing and 1940s music, would not look out of place in Hackney. Improved high streets then entice customers of all ages.
同時,由于50歲以上的人群手握著錢包,吸引他們的城鎮正在變得越來越令人滿意。曼徹斯特的榮譽市長蘇·庫利指出受老年人青睞的高檔餐廳和精致的商店正在崛起,正如在倫敦時髦、改造過的街區一樣。拉蒂摩之家,一家擺滿復古服飾、播放著40年代音樂的克萊斯特徹奇家具店,在哈克尼也不會顯得格格不入。改進后的商業街可以吸引各個年齡層的顧客了。
Indeed, gentrification and gerontification can look remarkably similar. Old folk and young hipsters are similarly fond of vinyl and typewriters, and wander about in outsized spectacles. Some people never lose their edge.
確實,中產階級化和老年化看起來驚人的相似。老伙計和年輕潮人都喜愛和打字機,并都戴著大號的眼鏡在外閑逛。有些人永遠風華正茂。
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