評論
打印
Afghanistan's election
阿富汗選舉
A useful crisis
有效的轉折
A fudge between two feuding presidential candidates may offer a political road map
兩個長期不和的總統候選人相互擠兌，這或許能提供一個政治路線圖
HOLDING a presidential election in Afghanistan only months before the withdrawal of Western combat forces was bound to be risky—even before one of the candidates, Abdullah Abdullah, reacted to preliminary results showing a suspiciously big lead for his opponent, Ashraf Ghani, by alleging “industrial-scale” fraud. The political crisis could have plunged the country into chaos and even war.
于西方作戰部隊撤離前幾個月在阿富汗舉行總統選舉注定是充滿風險的。候選人之一的阿卜杜拉斷言，對手阿什拉夫的支持率遠遠領先于他是可疑的，是“工業”欺詐。這場政治危機可能會使該國經濟陷入混亂甚至戰爭。
Yet this dangerous moment could turn out to be oddly productive. Disaster has been averted thanks to the banging-together of heads by America's secretary of state, John Kerry, and to the good sense of the presidential candidates, who stared into the abyss and retreated. Their deal points towards a political structure that should work better than the current one.
然而，這一危險時刻可能會出奇地有效。由于美國國務卿約翰·克里的群策群力和陷入深淵和撤退時總統候選人們的理智，災難得以避免。他們的策略指向更有效工作的政治結構。
Come on, it's Afghanistan
來吧，這就是阿富汗
In the first round of the election to replace Hamid Karzai as president, nearly 7m Afghans turned out to vote. But in the second, Dr Abdullah made no gain at all from the 45% of the vote he had secured in a crowded field; meanwhile, the share of his rival, Mr Ghani, leapt from 31% to 56%. Suspiciously, turnout increased by more than 1m votes. Mr Ghani has the backing of Mr Karzai, who stole the election from Dr Abdullah in 2009. This time Dr Abdullah's backers threatened to establish a breakaway government. That might lead to civil war.
在第一輪選舉中，近700萬阿富汗人支持替換哈米德·卡爾扎伊總統。但在第二輪中，阿卜杜拉并沒有在他有把握的45%領域中獲得選票，與此同時，他的競爭對手阿什拉夫的支持率從31%上升到56%。可疑的是，選票增加了100多萬。卡爾扎伊是支持阿什拉夫的，他在2009年的選舉中從阿卜杜拉手中竊取了選舉的勝利。這一次阿卜杜拉的支持者們揚言要建立獨立政府，這可能導致內戰。
Barack Obama called Dr Abdullah and threatened to stop all American military and financial aid. Dr Abdullah backed down. In return, America has promised a full, internationally supervised audit of every vote cast. The inauguration of a new president has been postponed from August 2nd to the end of the month. In truth it is not at all clear how much fraud an audit will pick up. But both candidates have promised to accept the result, and that matters more than the actual tally.
巴拉克?奧巴馬同阿卜杜拉聯系，威脅稱美國將停止所有軍事和經濟援助。阿卜杜拉做退縮了。作為回報，美國已承諾對投票過程進行完全的國際監督審查。新總統的就職典禮已從8月2日推遲到這個月底，事實上，還不清楚在審查過程中會發現多少舞弊行為。但兩位候選人都承諾接受結果，這比實際數字更重要。
As well as being a short-term fix, the deal holds out the promise of a solution to the structural problems of Afghanistan's politics. Too much power resides in the office of the president. In 2004, when the constitution was ratified, extreme centralisation—for example, all provincial governors and police chiefs are appointed by the president—seemed the best way to hold the country together. Now it is pulling it apart. Political loyalties and social ties require local expression. But Mr Karzai's ability to bypass institutions by forming his own network of patronage has stunted the development of Afghan democracy and done nothing to cut corruption. A bizarre voting system, crying out for reform, has prevented the formation of real political parties and resulted in a weak and fractious legislature.
作為一個短期的解決方案，該協議同時提供了解決阿富汗政治結構性問題的方法。總統辦公室擁有太多的權力。2004年憲法生效時，極度的中央集權—例如所有省長和警察局長由總統任命—似乎是將整個國家團結在一起的最好方式。現在，中央集權卻使國家分裂了。政治忠誠和社會關系需要地域表達。但卡爾扎伊繞過機構形成自己的資助網絡，阻礙阿富汗民主的發展并且未能削弱腐敗。一個奇怪的迫切需要改革的投票系統，阻礙了真正的政黨形成，并形成了脆弱又難以控制的立法機構。
Under the deal brokered by Mr Kerry, there will be a government of national unity. The election-winner will be president, but the loser (or his nominee) will be “chief of the executive council”, a new position implying power-sharing. Then, after two years, there will be a loya jirga (a gathering of tribal elders, local power-brokers and elected officials) to approve constitutional changes that include the creation of the post of prime minister. He would rank below the president but have executive powers.
根據克里的談判交易，將會成立一個民族團結的政府。選舉獲勝者將成為總統，但失敗者(或其指定人)將作為執行委員會的主席,，新職位意味著分權。兩年之后，將會有一個支爾格大會(部落長老們、地方政治掮客和民選官員們的聚會)來批準修改憲法，包括建立總理一職，該頭銜低于總統但有行政權力。
Such a structure would better reflect the reality of a country that is ethnically diverse, corrupt, Byzantine and more comfortable with give and take than a winner-takes-all politics. It might also offer a route out of violence for those Taliban who are not implacable ideologues but feel shut out by the present system. If Afghanistan's leaders can make it work, they will be doing their country a huge service.
這樣的結構可以更好地反映一個國家的現狀—多民族的、腐敗的、拜占庭式的、更適合平等交換而不是贏者通吃的政治。它還可能給那些覺得被現有制度拒之門外的塔利班們一條遠離暴力的道路。如果阿富汗領導人能使之生效，它們將會為這個國家做出巨大貢獻。
As so often happens in Afghanistan, everything could still go suddenly wrong. But Mr Kerry has helped ensure that a good crisis has not gone to waste.
這種事情在阿富汗時有發生，一切都仍有可能突然失敗。但克里確保了這個良好的轉折點還沒有被浪費。
