Europe;Europe's banks; The fear factor; Preventing a big European bank run;
歐洲;歐洲的銀行們;憂慮因素;阻止一場(chǎng)歐洲大規(guī)模銀行擠兌;
In continental capitals and bank boardrooms there is a common fear. It is that the slow jog of deposits leaving banks in Greece and, more recently, Spain, may turn into a full-blown run that quickly spreads from bank to bank, and then from country to country. There have already been some warning signs, such as a sudden acceleration of deposit outflows from Greek banks in May.

在歐洲大陸各國(guó)首府和銀行的董事會(huì)議室里彌漫著一種擔(dān)憂。 希臘各大銀行的存款量正在平緩流失, 新近西班牙各銀行也陷入同樣境況, 這很有可能會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)變成一場(chǎng)全面的銀行擠兌風(fēng)暴, 并迅速在銀行乃至國(guó)家之間傳播。 對(duì)此已早有征兆, 五月份希臘各銀行的存款外流驟然加速就是例證。
A fierce debate is now taking place as to the best way to avert a run that, if it started, might be difficult to contain and could lead to massive capital flight from the euro zone's peripheral countries, which have 1.8 trillion Euro(2.2 trillion Dollar) in household deposits (see chart). Increasing numbers of people think the answer is greater financial integration. On May 30th the European Commission said there ought to be “full economic and monetary union, including a banking union; integrated financial supervision and a single deposit guarantee scheme”.
目前, 關(guān)于如何最為有效地防止一場(chǎng)全面風(fēng)暴正引起一場(chǎng)激烈爭(zhēng)論。 因?yàn)閿D兌一旦開始蔓延, 可能難以遏制, 而且可能導(dǎo)致歐元區(qū)邊緣國(guó)家出現(xiàn)大量資本流失, 而這些國(guó)家家庭存款擁有量達(dá)1.8萬億歐元(即2.2萬億美元)。(如圖所示)。 越來越多的人認(rèn)為應(yīng)該加強(qiáng)歐元區(qū)金融一體化。 5月30日, 歐盟委員會(huì)指出應(yīng)建立"全面的經(jīng)濟(jì)與貨幣聯(lián)盟, 包括銀行業(yè)的聯(lián)盟; 以及完整統(tǒng)一的金融監(jiān)督和單一存款保障計(jì)劃"。
The first step is to shore up confidence in the region's banks by making sure they have enough capital to withstand a crisis. It is far cheaper to recapitalise banks, after all, than to stand behind all of their deposits. Yet such efforts have been bungled time and again. Europe has twice over the past two years tried to reassure depositors and investors that its banks are sound by subjecting them to “stress tests” that were supposed to mimic an economic downturn. In each case the tests were soon followed by revelations of deep capital holes in some banks (newly nationalised Bankia among them). Since some national regulators have lost the confidence of markets, they are having to bring in outsiders to assess how much capital their banks need.
第一步, 要通過確保區(qū)域內(nèi)各銀行有足夠的資金能夠抵御一次經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī), 以此增強(qiáng)銀行的信心. 畢竟, 調(diào)整銀行資本結(jié)構(gòu)相比保障各銀行的存款量, 所需代價(jià)要小的多。 然而這樣的努力卻一再以失敗告終。 在過去兩年中, 歐洲曾兩次嘗試讓各銀行在一場(chǎng)摹擬的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中接受"壓力測(cè)試", 證明這些銀行都運(yùn)作良好安全可靠, 試圖以此恢復(fù)儲(chǔ)戶和投資者們的信心。 但緊接著這兩次壓力測(cè)試之后均有消息曝出某些銀行存在嚴(yán)重的資金缺口(其中包括一些新近被收歸國(guó)有的銀行)。 因?yàn)橐恍﹪?guó)家監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)失去市場(chǎng)的信任, 他們正被迫請(qǐng)一些機(jī)構(gòu)外的人士來參與評(píng)估這些銀行所需資金量。
Actually raising the capital is the next big problem for countries such as Spain or Italy, which are already struggling to convince markets that their public debt is sustainable. Ideally it should come from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), Europe's new bail-out fund, as a direct capital injection into banks rather than as loans to governments, which then use the money to recapitalise their ailing lenders.
實(shí)際上, 募集資金是西班牙, 意大利等國(guó)家面臨的下一個(gè)大問題, 他們已經(jīng)在費(fèi)盡心思希望說服市場(chǎng)相信其國(guó)債的可持續(xù)性。 理想的辦法是, 他們所需資金能由歐洲穩(wěn)定機(jī)制(ESM)提供, 作為歐洲新的緊急財(cái)政援助基金給銀行直接注資而非貸款給政府部門, 然后再利用這些資金對(duì)其陷入困境的銀行進(jìn)行資本結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整。
Injecting capital is politically difficult. Core countries such as Germany fret they will lose a lever of influence over government policies in peripheral countries by handing over equity. They also stand a greater chance of losing money if the ESM takes on the risk of bank investing, not least because they know even less about the balance-sheets of individual lenders than those of national governments. Peripheral countries are less than keen on handing ownership of important banks to bureaucrats in Brussels. And unless the capital is accompanied by supervisory reforms, local regulators may encourage banks to lend more freely at home since the risk of loss will have been exported.
直接注資從政治上講很難實(shí)施。 德國(guó)等核心國(guó)家擔(dān)心一旦轉(zhuǎn)付資金他們就會(huì)失去其在邊緣國(guó)家政府政策制定方面的影響力。 如果ESM冒險(xiǎn)給銀行注資, 他們面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)損失的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)更大, 相當(dāng)重要的原因是他們本來對(duì)各銀行資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的了解比對(duì)各政府的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的了解還要模糊。 各邊緣國(guó)家也不想將他們重要銀行的所有權(quán)交給布魯塞爾的官僚們。 并且注資同時(shí)如不進(jìn)行監(jiān)督機(jī)制改革, 當(dāng)?shù)乇O(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)可能會(huì)鼓勵(lì)銀行更多地為本國(guó)個(gè)人或機(jī)構(gòu)提供貸款, 因?yàn)閾p失的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)被輸出。
Recapitalising banks would not put the catch on every trigger for a run, however. The worry among depositors is not just that their bank will go bust, it is also that their deposits in euros may overnight turn into a less valuable currency. So savers in the periphery would need some additional reassurance that their money is safe.
盡管如此, 銀行的資本結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整不會(huì)觸發(fā)擠兌危機(jī). 儲(chǔ)戶們擔(dān)心他們的存款銀行會(huì)破產(chǎn), 同時(shí)也害怕他們以歐元為計(jì)算單位的存款會(huì)在一夜之間貶值。 因此, 要讓邊緣國(guó)家的儲(chǔ)戶相信他們的存款是安全的還需要一些其他的安撫措施。
The job of providing this extra comfort usually falls to national deposit-insurance funds, ideally ones that are prefunded with assets worth about 1.5% of insured deposits, as is the case in America and Europe. If a medium-sized bank goes bust, prefunded schemes can usually pay depositors immediately; European countries insure qualifying deposits up to 100,000 Euro. For big banks, or for systemic crises, funds are usually backed by their governments.
這項(xiàng)額外的安撫工作通常是由國(guó)家存保機(jī)構(gòu)來完成的. 按照美國(guó)和歐洲的當(dāng)前情況, 最好是預(yù)先撥款資金額等同于承保存款額的1.5%. 如果一家中等規(guī)模的銀行倒閉, 預(yù)先撥款計(jì)劃可以立即啟動(dòng), 對(duì)儲(chǔ)戶進(jìn)行償付, 歐洲國(guó)家對(duì)符合投保要求的存款承保上限為10萬歐元。 至于大銀行破產(chǎn)或涉及整個(gè)金融系統(tǒng)的危機(jī), 則由政府出資解決。
Such schemes are fine in normal times, but do not do much to reassure people that their deposits won't be repaid in a different currency (or that their money will be safe if their own government cannot stand behind the scheme). That has prompted calls for a European insurance fund which would guarantee repayment in euros. The idea is appealing, but the politics and logistics of a credible guarantee are daunting.
這樣的計(jì)劃在一般情況下是沒有問題, 但要使人們相信他們的存款不會(huì)通過另一種貨幣來償還則作用不大.(如果他們的政府都無法支撐起這樣的計(jì)劃, 他們也就很難相信他們的存款是安全的). 這就使得必須有一種歐洲保險(xiǎn)基金能夠擔(dān)保在存款償付時(shí)使用歐元。 這種想法是十分吸引人的, 但實(shí)施一項(xiàng)可信的擔(dān)保計(jì)劃涉及的政治事務(wù)和組織工作卻令人望而生畏。
Household and corporate deposits across the euro area total some 7.6 trillion Euro. Assuming you wanted to limit the insurance to household deposits only, the figure is still 5.9 trillion Euro. Not all of this would be covered by a guarantee. A European Commission study in 2010 reckoned that 72% of deposits (and 95% of deposit accounts) fall under the 100,000 Euro limit. What's more, a European fund would not have to be big enough to deal with simultaneous deposit runs across all of Europe but only with ones in the periphery, since money would presumably flow to banks in core countries such as Germany. So the fund would have to be big enough to cover only some 1.3 trillion Euro in insured deposits in the periphery.
整個(gè)歐元區(qū)的家庭與企業(yè)存款總和達(dá)7.6萬億歐元。 假使你只為家庭存款提供擔(dān)保, 承保金額也達(dá)5.9萬億。 這些存款不會(huì)都得到擔(dān)保。 歐盟委員會(huì)2010年的一項(xiàng)研究推測(cè)有72%的存款(95%的儲(chǔ)蓄賬戶)在10萬歐元承保限額的范圍之內(nèi)。 更重要的是, 歐盟基金無需龐大到足以應(yīng)付歐洲各國(guó)同時(shí)發(fā)生存款流失危機(jī),僅需足夠應(yīng)付邊緣國(guó)家發(fā)生的此類情況即可。 因?yàn)榇婵顟?yīng)該是流向德國(guó)等核心國(guó)家銀行的。 如此一來, 歐盟基金就只需足夠擔(dān)保邊緣國(guó)家大約1.3萬億存款。
The question then is how much of that amount a prefunded scheme would have to set aside. Economists at Citigroup reckon that a fund ought to start with a baseline of 2% of insured deposits, and then top up that amount with an additional premium to reflect the risk that peripheral countries may leave the euro and that their currencies would then depreciate. Assuming a less-than-10% chance of all the peripheral countries leaving, and that when they did their currencies would fall by 30%, a prefunded scheme would need 154 billion Euro-198 billion. Such a fund should ordinarily be financed by a small insurance premium on deposits, but since the money is needed to restore confidence now, it would have to be backed by the ESM.
問題在于這項(xiàng)預(yù)先撥款計(jì)劃需要撥出多少資金。 花旗銀行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為這筆資金必須以承保存款總額的2%為下限, 再在此基礎(chǔ)上加上一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià), 用以反映邊緣國(guó)家可能退出歐元區(qū)及其貨幣隨之貶值的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。假定所有邊緣國(guó)家都退出歐元區(qū)的可能性低于10%, 且他們一旦退出, 他們的貨幣會(huì)貶值30%, 那么這項(xiàng)預(yù)先撥款計(jì)劃將需要1540-1980億資金。 這樣一筆資金通常是由小型存款保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)來支付, 但現(xiàn)在正需要錢用來重塑儲(chǔ)戶信心, 導(dǎo)致這筆資金只能由ESM來提供。
Again, none of this is easy to achieve. Banks and voters in core countries (let alone Britain, whose position in a more integrated European banking system is very muddy) would be reluctant to insure peripheral deposits. Without beefed-up European supervision, it could lead to banks taking too many risks. Critics say that even a prefunded scheme would soon be depleted were a run to take hold. But a flawed scheme would be better than nothing.
不過, 這一切完成起來都是困難重重. 各核心國(guó)家的銀行和當(dāng)權(quán)者們(英國(guó)更不用提, 在日益完整統(tǒng)一的歐洲銀行體系中, 其地位十分撲塑迷離)都不愿意為邊緣國(guó)家的存款提供保障.不增強(qiáng)歐盟的監(jiān)管職能, 可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致銀行承擔(dān)太多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 批評(píng)家們稱形勢(shì)一旦惡化, 即便是預(yù)先撥款計(jì)劃也會(huì)被迅速耗盡。 但是一項(xiàng)有缺陷的計(jì)劃總要好過什么都不做。