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Books and Arts; Book Review;The future of Italy:Long life
Good Italy, Bad Italy: Why Italy Must Conquer Its Demons to Face the Future. By Bill Emmott.
Even after the latest euro rescue in Brussels, Italy remains a time bomb. Its public debt of close to 2 trillion ($2.5 trillion) is the world's third biggest, making it too big to bail out. It has lost competitiveness. And its economy is stagnant: between 2001 and 2012 GDP shrank, a worse performance than any other rich country. Fortunately, as Bill Emmott notes in this book, Italy has since last November had a technocratic cabinet led by Mario Monti that is the country's first reforming government in years.
歐元區最新一輪的救助措施，并沒能改變意大利危機重重的局面。它的國家債務高達2萬億歐元（2.5萬億美元），位列世界第三，這使得其擺脫困境的可能性微乎其微。意大利已經無競爭力可言，國家經濟呈一片衰敗之勢。2001年至今十年來，意大利是GDP增長最緩慢的發達國家。幸運的是——艾默特在書中指出——自從去年11月，新任總理馬里奧·蒙蒂組建了新型技術官僚內閣，這是意大利多年來首次政府改革。
Mr Emmott, who was editor-in-chief of this newspaper from 1993 to 2006, has made Italy one of his specialist subjects, inspired partly by libel battles with Mr Monti's predecessor, Silvio Berlusconi. His excellent book is an updated English version of one published in Italian in 2010 under the title “Forza, Italia” (a pun on Mr Berlusconi's party and a football slogan, meaning “Go! Italy”). His thesis is better described by the new title: there are in reality two Italys.
艾默特，原《經濟學人》雜志主編（1993～2006年）。意大利前總理布盧斯科尼對自己繼任者的誹謗，一定程度上激發了艾默爾的興趣。意大利已經成為他的一項獨特研究課題。艾默特的精彩書作，原版為意大利文，出版于2010年，題目為“加油，意大利”。此次發行的是英文更新版本。其實艾默特的觀點用下面這個標題會更精確些：事實上，存在著兩個意大利。
This is often said of the north and south. Last year's 150th anniversary of Italian unification saw acid remarks about its having divided Africa, not united Italy. But Mr Emmott's division is not this one. Rather, he finds good and bad all over the country. On the good side he cites cases such as Mr Monti, young entrepreneurs, strong manufacturing (Italy is second only to Germany in Europe), a revitalised Fiat and Turin. On the bad, he offers Mr Berlusconi, organised crime and corruption, the public sector, red tape and Naples.
意大利的南北之分，由來已久。在去年的意大利統一150周年紀念日，即有一種尖刻的言論稱：意大利不該統一，而該分裂。然而艾默特并未從傳統意義上進行劃分，而是從國家整體層面上發現了意大利的光明與黑暗面。光明面，他拿蒙蒂、年輕的企業家們、強大的制造業（歐洲國家中僅次于德國），復興的菲亞特和都靈為例。黑暗面，他則主要列舉了布盧斯科尼、黑社會組織、腐敗、崩潰的政治系統、繁文縟節和那不勒斯的困境。
His story is supported by lively anecdotes of the people and firms he meets on his travels, many of them in the course of making a documentary film. It is refreshing to read so much that is positive about Italy amid the pervasive gloom: the fight against organised crime in the south, the exporting power of family firms in the north, the impact of Mr Monti's reforms. The author finds plenty of reasons for hope.
艾默特的講述，輔以了他在旅途中見聞的生動軼事，其中許多逸聞趣事還制成了紀錄片。在意大利深陷陰暗迷霧之時，能夠讀到意大利的光明面，實在讓人耳目一新：南方對于黑社會的反擊，北方家族企業出口貿易的實力，蒙蒂改革的功效等。作者的分析，讓人們有理由對未來充滿希望。
Yet overall his book seems a touch too optimistic. Mr Monti is being as bold as he can, but he has lost popularity, some of his reforms have been watered down and his ability to do things is waning as next spring's election approaches. The anti-mafia movement in Sicily is heartening, but organised crime has spread to the north as well. Many young Italians are talented and hard-working, but too many deploy their talents abroad rather than at home.
但是，總體來說，艾默特稍微有點樂觀了。盡管蒙蒂已經竭盡全力去拯救糟糕的局勢，但是當初的高支持率已然不再。新政府所進行的部分改革措施被打折扣。同時，在明年大選即將到來之際，蒙蒂正在逐漸喪失他的影響力。一方面，是西西里的“打黑”運動不斷升溫，一方面，是黑社會已經悄悄往意大利北部蔓延。大批的年輕人們富有才干，工作勤奮，但都在往國外謀求發展，而非報效祖國。
Above all, the deep structural failings of Italy—an inefficient public sector, a poor demographic outlook, lousy universities, a calamitously slow judicial system—will take years to put right. The euro crisis has shown the urgent need for reforms, but by stunting growth it has also made them harder. And Italy has few liberals who genuinely believe in reform.
總之，意大利結構上的深層次癥結——失效的政治系統，老化的社會人口，沒落的公立大學，效率奇低的法院系統——所有這些，都需要很長的時間去一一解決。歐元危機已經昭示了改革的迫在眉睫，然而滯緩的國內發展困境又讓改革舉步維艱。如今在意大利，原本擁護改革的人，現已所剩無幾了。
Early on Mr Emmott notes the spooky parallels between now and the early 1990s, when Italy's economic problems first became apparent. A promising start then turned into 20 wasted years, largely because of Mr Berlusconi's entry on to the political stage. The media mogul's era may be over (even that is not certain). But new populists are rising up, and the next election could be messy. Italy has yet to find its next saviour.
在書的開頭，艾默特即點明了目前的狀況和上個世紀90年代初之間存在的不可思議的相似之處。原本是充滿希望的開始，卻因為布盧斯科尼在政治舞臺的出現，轉入了幾乎停滯的20年。這位傳媒大亨的時代也許是該結束了（盡管還不能確定）。新的平民之星正在冉冉升起。即將到來的選舉定不會平靜。意大利仍要繼續前行，尋找下一個救星。
