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A new study says that no matter how much the world cuts back on carbon emissions, a large and important part of Antarctica is expected to disappear.
一項新的研究表明，無論世界減少多少碳排放，南極洲的一大片重要地區預計都將會消失。
Researchers used computer models to predict the future melting of protective ice around Antarctica's Amundsen Sea in western Antarctica.
研究人員使用計算機模型來預測未來南極洲西部阿蒙森海周圍保護性冰的融化情況。
They said the "unavoidable" melting will take hundreds of years.
他們說，“不可避免的”融化將需要數百年的時間。
It will slowly add nearly 1.8 meters to sea levels.
這將會使海平面緩慢上升近1.8米。
And it will be enough to reshape where and how people live in the future.
這將足以重塑人們未來的生活地點和方式。
The study was published recently in Nature Climate Change.
這篇研究論文最近發表在《自然氣候變化》雜志上。
It found that even if future warming was limited to just a few tenths of a degree more, it would have "limited power to prevent ocean warming that could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet."
研究發現，即使未來氣溫上升幅度被限制在僅零點幾度的范圍內，這也“無法阻止可能會導致南極西部冰蓋坍塌的海洋變暖現象的發生”。
Many scientists say the goal of just a few tenths of a degree of warming is unlikely to be met.
許多科學家表示，將氣溫上升幅度控制在零點幾度的目標不太可能實現。
"Our main question here was: How much control do we still have over ice shelf melting? How much melting can still be prevented by reducing emissions?" said study lead writer Kaitlin Naughten.
該研究論文的主要作者凱特琳·諾頓說：“我們的主要問題是：我們對冰架融化還有多大的控制力？通過減少排放還能防止多少冰架融化？”
She is an expert on oceans at the British Antarctic Survey.
她是英國南極調查局的海洋專家。
She said their research suggests that Earth is set on the path to a quick increase in the rate of ocean warming and ice shelf melting over the rest of the century.
她說，他們的研究表明，在本世紀余下的時間里，地球將走上海洋變暖和冰架融化速度迅速加快的道路。
While past studies have talked about how serious the situation is, Naughten was the first to use computer modeling to study how warm water from below will melt the ice.
雖然過去的研究已經談論了情況的嚴重性，但諾頓是第一個使用計算機建模來研究來自地下的溫水將如何融化冰的人。
The study looked at four different cases in how much carbon emissions the world produces.
這項研究考慮了全球碳排放量的四種不同情況。
In each case, ocean warming was just too much for this area of the ice to survive, the study found.
研究發現，在每一種情況下，海洋變暖的幅度都太大，以致這片冰區無法幸存。
Naughten looked at melting, floating areas of ice that hold back glaciers.
諾頓研究了阻止冰川融化的浮冰區域。
Once these areas of ice melt, there is nothing to stop the glaciers behind them from flowing into the sea.
一旦這些地區的冰融化，就沒有什么能阻止它們后面的冰川流入大海。
The study also looked at what would happen if future warming was limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius over mid-19th century levels: the international goal.
這項研究還研究了如果未來氣溫上升幅度被控制在比19世紀中期的水平高1.5攝氏度以下（國際目標）會發生什么。
They found the runaway melting process in this case as well.
在這種情況下，他們也發現了失控的融化過程。
The world has already warmed about 1.2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times and much of this summer went past the 1.5 degrees mark.
自前工業化時代以來，全球氣溫已經上升了約1.2攝氏度，今年夏天大部分時間的氣溫上升幅度都超過了1.5攝氏度的限制值。
Naughten's study looked at the part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet that is most at risk from melting from below, near the Amundsen Sea.
諾頓的研究著眼于西南極冰蓋靠近阿蒙森海的部分，那里最有可能從下方融化。
It includes the very large Thwaites ice shelf that is melting so fast it is called "the Doomsday Glacier."
其中包括巨大的思韋茨冰架，它融化得非?？?，被稱為“世界末日冰川”。
That part of Antarctica "is doomed," said University of California Irvine ice scientist Eric Rignot.
加利福尼亞大學爾灣分校的冰學家埃里克·里格諾特說，南極洲的這一部分“注定要毀滅”。
He was not part of the study.
他沒有參與該研究。
He added, "The damage has already been done."
他補充說，“損害已經造成了?！?/p>
Naughten does not like to use the word "doomed," because she said 100 years from now, the world might not just stop but drive back carbon levels in the air and climate change.
諾頓不喜歡用“注定”這個詞，因為她說，100年后，世界可能不僅會停止，還會降低空氣中的碳含量和減緩氣候變化。
But she said what is happening now on the ground is a slow collapse that cannot be stopped, at least not in this century.
但她說，目前正在發生的情況是一場無法阻止的緩慢坍塌，至少在本世紀是這樣的。
I'm Gena Bennett.
吉納·班尼特為您播報。
譯文為可可英語翻譯，未經授權請勿轉載！
