A new study from international researchers says that Earth is outside of its "safe operating space for humanity" in six of nine measures of its health.
國際研究人員的一項新研究表明,關乎地球健康的九項指標中有六項超出了“人類安全運行空間”。
The study added that two of the remaining three measures are moving in the wrong direction.
該研究論文還稱,其余三項指標中有兩項正朝著錯誤的方向發展。
The international scientists published the study in Science Advances.
國際科學家在《科學進展》上發表了這篇研究論文。
They said Earth's climate, biodiversity, land, freshwater, nutrient pollution, and human-made compounds are outside of "safe operating space for humanity."
他們表示,地球的氣候、生物多樣性、土地、淡水、營養物污染和人造化合物都超出了“人類安全運行空間”。
The scientists said only the acidity of the oceans, the health of the air, and the ozone layer are within limits considered to be safe.
科學家表示,只有海洋酸度、空氣健康和臭氧層在被認為是安全的范圍內。
The ozone layer is mainly high in the atmosphere and prevents dangerous solar radiation from reaching the surface of the Earth.
臭氧層主要在大氣層高層,阻止危險的太陽輻射到達地球表面。
But the study warned that both the ocean and air pollution are moving in the wrong direction.
但該研究警告稱,海洋和空氣污染都在朝著錯誤的方向發展。
Johan Rockstrom is a climate scientist who helped write the study.
約翰·羅克斯特羅姆是一名氣候科學家,他幫助撰寫了這篇研究論文。
He is director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
他是德國波茨坦氣候影響研究所所長。
He said, "We are in very bad shape."
他說:“我們的情況非常糟糕。”
He compared the Earth to a weakening, sick patient.
他把地球比作一個虛弱的病人。
In 2009, Rockstrom and other researchers created nine "boundary areas" and used measurements of them to judge Earth's health.
2009年,羅克斯特羅姆和其他研究人員創建了九個“邊界區域”,并通過測量它們來判斷地球的健康狀況。
The latest study continued research from a similar one in 2015.
最新的研究延續了2015年的一項類似研究。
The latest study added a sixth area to the unsafe listing.
這項最新研究增加了第六個不安全區域。
Rockstrom said the Earth's water went from being safe to being "out-of-bounds."
羅克斯特羅姆說,地球上的水從安全區變成了“越界區”。
The scientists said this was because of river run-off.
科學家表示,這是河流徑流造成的。
They said better measurements and understanding of the issue had shown there was a problem.
他們表示,更好的測量方法和對問題的理解表明存在問題。
Rockstrom said these boundaries would decide the future of the planet.
羅克斯特羅姆說,這些邊界將決定地球的未來。
He added the nine measures have been "scientifically well established" by other studies.
他補充說,這九項指標已經被其他研究“科學地證實了”。
If Earth can manage these nine measures, Earth could be more-or-less safe.
如果地球能夠管理這九項指標,地球可能或多或少是安全的。
But it is not, he said.
但事實并非如此,他說。
The nine measures were compared with each other in different ways.
他們用不同的方式對這九項指標進行了對比。
The team used computer simulations to predict the future.
該團隊使用計算機模擬來預測未來。
They would, for example, make predictions based on increases in the average temperature of the Earth.
例如,他們會根據地球平均溫度的上升進行預測。
The team found, if one area was affected badly by a temperature change then all areas were affected badly.
研究小組發現,如果一個區域受到溫度變化的嚴重影響,那么所有區域都會受到嚴重影響。
The team also found that if one area improved, all areas improved.
研究小組還發現,如果一個區域有所改善,所有區域都會有所改善。
The scientists said the simulations showed that one of the most powerful ways to help the climate is to clean up land and to save forests.
科學家表示,模擬結果表明,改善氣候的最有效方法之一是清理土地和拯救森林。
Returning forests to the late 20th century levels would provide natural areas to store carbon dioxide instead of in the air, where it traps heat, the study said.
研究稱,將森林恢復到20世紀末的水平可以為儲存二氧化碳提供自然空間而不是將其儲存在空氣中,空氣中的二氧化碳會吸收熱量。
Rockstrom added that biodiversity is in the most troubling area but does not get as much attention.
羅克斯特羅姆補充說,生物多樣性是最令人不安的區域,但沒有得到足夠的關注。
However, the study said the ozone layer is improving.
然而,該研究稱,臭氧層正在改善。
This shows that when the world and its leaders decide to deal with a problem, it can be fixed.
這表明,當世界及其領導人決定解決問題時,問題是可以解決的。
Neil Donahue is a Carnegie Mellon chemistry and environment professor.
尼爾·多納休是卡內基梅隆大學的化學和環境學教授。
He said, "for the most part there are things that we know how to do" to improve the remaining problems.
他說,“在很大程度上,我們知道如何做一些事情”來改善剩余的問題。
Some biodiversity scientists, like Duke University's Stuart Pimm, have disputed Rockstrom's methods, saying they are not worth much.
一些生物多樣性科學家,如杜克大學的斯圖爾特·皮姆,對羅克斯特羅姆的方法提出了質疑,他認為這些方法沒有多大價值。
Granger Morgan is a Carnegie Mellon environmental engineering professor and was not part of the study.
格蘭杰·摩根是卡內基梅隆大學的環境工程學教授,他沒有參與這項研究。
He said, "Experts don't agree on exactly where the limits are, or how much the planet's different systems may interact, but we are getting dangerously close."
他說,“專家們對界限的確切位置以及地球上不同系統之間的相互作用程度沒有達成一致,但我們正在危險地接近。”
Morgan said he has often said if we do not cut back on how we are harming the Earth, "we're toast."
摩根說,他經常說,如果我們不減少對地球的傷害,“我們就完蛋了。”
He added, "This paper says it's more likely that we're burnt toast."
他補充說:“這篇論文稱,我們更有可能是被烤焦了。”
I'm Gregory Stachel.
格雷戈里·施塔赫爾為您播報。
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