OECD Downgrades US Economic Outlook
經濟發展與合作組織對美經濟悲觀

The Paris-based Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) published a grim assessment Thursday of the United States economy, saying it was close to recession. However, the OECD suggested European economies will likely fare better this year.

設在巴黎的經濟發展與合作組織星期四對美國經濟發表了一份悲觀的評估報告，認為美國經濟瀕臨衰退的邊緣。但是該組織估計今年歐洲國家的經濟狀況很可能有所改善。

The OECD downgraded its estimates for U.S. growth to just 0.1 percent for the first quarter of this year. Overall, the organization predicted the American economy would grow just 1.4 percent in 2008, far below its previous estimate in December of a two percent growth.

經濟發展與合作組織估計，美國經濟今年第一季度的增長率僅為0.1%。該組織預計，2008年美國經濟的全年增長率為1.4%，大大低于去年12月作出的2%的預測。

The OECD is an international economic research organization based in Paris.

經濟發展與合作組織是設在巴黎的國際經濟研究機構。

OECD chief economist Jorgen Elmeskov says it might be premature to declare a recession in the United States. But at a press conference in Paris, Elmeskov said the U.S. economy would be extremely weak for at least the first half of this year, hampered by a credit crunch and the collapse of the U.S. housing market.

該組織首席經濟學家埃爾姆斯克夫說，現在就認為美國進入經濟衰退還為時過早，但是他在巴黎舉行的一次記者會上說，美國經濟在信貸緊縮和住房市場崩潰的影響下，至少在今年上半年將極其衰弱。

"It's hard to say how far advanced we are in the U.S. housing construction adjustments," he explained. "The share of GDP housing construction is probably down now to around somewhere like 3.8 percent of GDP. Which correspondents to the average level in previous slumps. But it is clear that this slump has got further to go. There are no signs from any indicator of construction activity that things are about to change."

埃爾姆斯克夫說：“還很難說美國住房建設調整究竟取得了多少進展。住房建設在美國國內生產總值中所占比例現在可能下降到3.8%左右，這和以前幾次房市暴跌的平均水平相符。但是顯然這次暴跌還有進一步向下的趨勢，任何有關住房建設的指數都沒有顯示有出現轉機的跡象。”

The OECD said the so-called euro-zone economies - those European Union economies using the euro as their currency - have brighter prospects, and kept the prediction of 1.5 percent growth unchanged.

經濟發展與合作組織表示，所謂歐元區經濟體，也就是那些使用歐元的歐盟成員經濟體的經濟前景卻比較光明，這些經濟體的增長率仍然保持在原先做出的1.5%的水平。

While a strong euro makes European exports more expensive, it also makes the price of oil cheaper. Still, the organization has raised alarm about possible inflation for the euro-area.

雖然歐元強勁使得歐洲出口商品的價格更加昂貴，但是同時也導致石油價格變得低廉，但是經濟發展與合作組織依然對歐元區可能發生的通貨膨脹做出警告。

The OECD also issued a somewhat downbeat prognosis for Japan, predicting only a 1.5 percent growth rate for 2008, down from its earlier prediction of 1.6 percent growth.

該組織還對日本的經濟前景發表了比較悲觀的預測，認為日本2008年的經濟增長率僅為1.5%，低于先前預測的1.6%。