Iranian President Faces Challenges Despite Electoral Win
伊朗總統在總統選舉之前面臨挑戰

Loyalists of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were big winners in the recent parliamentary elections. With many reformists locked out of the electoral process, the contests were primarily between different factions in the conservative camp. In this election analysis, the Iranian president could still face some rough times ahead as the presidential election looms on the horizon.

在伊朗最近的議會選舉中，總統艾哈邁迪內賈德的支持者大有斬獲。許多改革派人士被剝奪競選的權利，競選基本上是在保守派的不同派系之間展開。在總統選舉日益臨近之際，伊朗總統今后仍然可能面臨困難。

For many Iran watchers, the key question is why, despite high inflation, rising prices and gasoline rationing, Iranian voters seemed reluctant to blame President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for their economic woes.

對許多伊朗觀察人士來說，主要問題是，盡管通貨膨脹居高不下、物價高漲、汽油實行配給，伊朗選民似乎仍不愿意把伊朗的經濟問題歸罪于總統艾哈邁迪內賈德。

With most of the prominent reformists blocked from competing, the parliamentary elections turned into a contest of conservative factions. Those Ahmadinejad loyalists, who call themselves principalists, squared off against more pragmatic conservatives who have been critical of the Ahmadinejad economic policies. The Ahmadinejad camp won the largest share of seats in the Majlis, or parliament.

在大多數優秀的改革派人士被剝奪競選資格的情況下，議會選舉成為保守派派系之間的競爭。艾哈邁迪內賈德的效忠者稱自己為“原則派”，他們在同那些批評艾哈邁迪內賈德經濟政策的更加務實的保守派人士對陣。艾哈邁迪內賈德陣營在議會選舉中贏得了最多的席位。

The final balance of power in the Majlis will not be known until a runoff election in May.

在5月份的決選舉行之前，伊朗議會的力量平衡還未見分曉。

Hooshang Amirahmadi, a professor at Rutgers University and president of the American-IranianCouncil, says President Ahmadinejad successfully shifted blame for Iran's economic woes elsewhere.

羅格斯大學教授、美國伊朗關系理事會主席阿米拉馬迪說，艾哈邁迪內賈德總統成功地推卸了伊朗經濟困境的責任。

"To my surprise they also blame the outside world," Amirahmadi said. "They blame sanctions. Ahmadinejad has obviously been successful to some extent in transferring the blame to the U.N., to the U.S., to Europe. Although they [the Iranians] say the sanctions are not effective, they do blame inflation on the outside [world]."

他說：“讓我感到驚訝的是，他們在責怪外部世界。他們責怪制裁。從某種程度上說，艾哈邁迪內賈德成功地把罪責轉到聯合國、美國和歐洲。盡管他們說，制裁是沒有成效的，他們確實把通貨膨脹歸咎于于外部世界。”

Iran has been sanctioned for its alleged ambitions to be a nuclear weapons power. Iran denies the charge.

伊朗因為據稱有發展核武器的野心而受到制裁。伊朗否認這些指控。

The United States and European nations have denounced the elections as unfree and unfair.

美國和歐洲國家指責伊朗的選舉是不自由和不公平的。

In an interview with VOA's Persian News Network, President Bush says he is not surprised that Iranian politicians tried to shift the blame for Iran's economic woes.

布什總統在接受美國之音波斯語新聞網的采訪時說，他對伊朗官員試圖推卸伊朗經濟困境責任的做法并不感到意外。

"Any time a government is failing to meet the needs of people - or a lot of times, not any time - but a lot of times governments have failed to meet the needs of their people, particularly in relatively non-transparent, non-free societies they always look for somebody to blame," he said. "And I'm not surprised that the leaders would blame the United States for the problems they themselves have created."

布什說：“任何時候，在一個政府沒能滿足人民要求的時候，特別是在那些不公開、不自由的社會，他們通常會找別人當替罪羊。那些領導人把他們自己造成的問題歸咎于美國，我并不會感到意外。”

Ken Katzman, an Iran analyst at the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, says President Ahmadinejad, who campaigned on a populist platform in the last presidential election in 2005, retains a loyal base in the rural areas.

非黨派的美國國會研究處的伊朗問題專家卡茲曼說，艾哈邁迪內賈德總統在鄉村地區有忠實的群眾基礎，他在上一次2005年的總統選舉中以民粹派政綱進行競選。

"What I think that many in the West, including maybe myself, felt was that because his economic policies were not that successful, the voters would make him pay," Katzman said. "But the rural voters seem to like the fact that he is at least paying attention to their concerns. He visits, he gets petitions, he at least surveys with his own eyes what the rural voter is facing. And inflation is maybe not that much of a big deal to the rural voters because maybe they can get more for their farm products."

卡茲曼說：“我認為，許多在西方國家的人，包括我自己，都會認為因為他的經濟政策不那么成功，選民會讓他付出代價。但是鄉村地區的選民似乎歡迎這樣一個情況，至少艾哈邁迪內賈德關注人們所關切的事情。他訪貧問苦、接受請愿，他至少去親自調查鄉村地區選民的處境。對鄉村地區的選民來說，通貨膨脹可能不是那么嚴重的事，因為他們也許從自己的農產品中得到的更多。”

Analysts say the conservative pragmatists still won enough seats to make life difficult for the president in the Majlis and to challenge him in next year's presidential election.

分析人士說，務實的保守派人士能夠贏得足夠的席位，讓艾哈邁迪內賈德在議會中面臨困境，并且在明年的總統選舉中對他進行挑戰。

Hooshang Amirahmadi, who was in Iran just before the elections, says he would not bet against Mr. Ahmadinejad at this point, although, he adds, what happens in U.S.-Iranian relations will affect the political dynamic in Tehran.

阿米拉馬迪在議會選舉前在伊朗，他說，他不會打賭艾哈邁迪內賈德不會贏得選舉，但是，他說，美國和伊朗關系的發展將影響德黑蘭的政治動向。

"A year from now, God knows," Amirahmadi said. "Iran is a land of surprises and all kinds of things can happen. And I think U.S.-Iran relations can have a serious impact on the way things go. If, God forbid, there is a military move against Iran in the next seven, eight months or a year, I can almost 100 percent assure you that people like Ahmadinejad will stay in power and even become stronger."

阿米拉馬迪說：“一年以后，誰知道會發生什么呢。伊朗是一個充滿意外的地方，任何事都有可能發生。我認為，美國和伊朗的關系會嚴重影響局勢發展。但愿這種情況不要發生。如果伊朗在未來的7到8個月或者一年內受到軍事打擊，我可以百分之百地肯定，像艾哈邁迪內賈德這樣的人會繼續執掌政權并且會變得更加強大。”

Katzman adds that those reformists who were allowed to run did comparatively well, and could still emerge as a political force next year.

卡茲曼補充說，那些被允許參加競選的改革派人士相對來說得票率很高，他們明年仍然可能成為一股政治力量。

"After Ahmadinejad won in '05, the reformists were basically prostrate," he said. "They were just in complete and utter disarray, holding conferences, hand-wringing about what went wrong, etcetera. Now they at least seem to found some sea legs. They're regrouping, they're trying to get organized. And I think to count them out would be a mistake."

卡茲曼說：“在艾哈邁迪內賈德在2005年取得勝利之后，改革派基本上是被打敗了，他們潰不成軍。他們召集了一些會議，記錄出現的問題。現在，至少他們似乎恢復了平穩行走的能力。他們進行整編、重新整合。我覺得，認為他們已經被淘汰出局是一個錯誤。”

The Iranian presidential election is expected to be held in June 2009 or shortly thereafter.

伊朗的總統選舉預計在2009年6月或稍后舉行。