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Mr Trump may ease the sanctions but that could take time, to preserve leverage in peace talks with Russia. If talks fail, the war could drag on.
特朗普可能會放松制裁，但這可能需要時間，以保持在與俄羅斯和平談判中的籌碼。如果談判失敗，戰爭可能會持續下去。
And even if they succeed, and sanctions are lifted, the new oil deal is likely to add to India's substantial trade deficit with Russia. Turn next to defence.
即使談判成功，制裁被解除，新的石油協議也可能會增加印度與俄羅斯的巨額貿易逆差。接下來是國防。
India has indeed become less reliant on Russian arms, buying from France, Israel and others. Yet the prime minister, Narendra Modi, continues to cut deals with Russia.
印度確實減少了對俄羅斯武器的依賴，從法國、以色列和其他國家購買武器。然而，總理納倫德拉·莫迪仍在繼續與俄羅斯達成交易。
In July 2024, just before Mr Modi visited Moscow, a Russian state arms manufacturer announced that it would make tank rounds in India.
2024年7月，就在莫迪訪問莫斯科之前，一家俄羅斯國有武器制造商宣布將在印度制造坦克炮彈。
Mr Modi and Mr Putin then agreed to pursue joint weapons development and manufacture.
莫迪和普京隨后同意進行聯合武器開發和制造。
Russian and Indian firms already jointly produce weapons in India, including tanks, fighter jets and missiles.
俄羅斯和印度公司已經在印度聯合生產武器，包括坦克、戰斗機和導彈。
Mr Singh, the Indian defence minister, added substance on his own Moscow visit by discussing the purchase of Russia's Voronezh radar system.
印度國防部長辛格在其莫斯科之行中，還談到了購買俄羅斯沃羅涅日雷達系統。
It can identify and track a range of threats, including ballistic missiles and aircraft, over distances of up to 8,000km (5,000 miles).
該系統可以識別和跟蹤一系列威脅，包括彈道導彈和飛機，距離可達8000公里（5000英里）。
That would greatly enhance India's capabilities, giving it coverage far into China, a range accessible only to a few powers.
這將大大增強印度的軍事實力，使其能夠覆蓋遠至中國的地區，而這一范圍只有少數幾個大國可以到達。
Perhaps as important for India, some 60% of its components would reportedly be made in the country.
或許對印度同樣重要的是，據報道，印度約60%的零部件將在印度制造。
All of which suggests that India continues to view Russia as its primary source of top-end weaponry, much of which America and its allies remain reluctant to share.
所有這些都表明，印度仍然將俄羅斯視為其高端武器的主要來源，而美國及其盟友仍不愿分享其中的大部分。
And that Mr Modi sees Russia, alongside any willing Western partners, as a means to strengthen India's defence industry. Yet here too India faces risks.
莫迪將俄羅斯以及任何愿意合作的西方伙伴視為加強印度國防工業的手段。然而，印度也面臨風險。
Its defence co-operation with Russia has been plagued by problems, including the delayed delivery of the last two of five s-400 missile systems that it bought in 2018.
印度與俄羅斯的國防合作一直存在問題，包括2018年購買的五套S-400導彈系統中最后延遲交付的兩套。
Poor performance of some Russian weaponry in Ukraine has caused concern among Indian military leaders.
一些俄羅斯武器在烏克蘭表現不佳，引起了印度軍方領導人的擔憂。
And India has postponed or cancelled talks on several deals to buy or upgrade Russian equipment, citing logistical issues arising from the Ukraine war.
印度以烏克蘭戰爭引發的后勤問題為由，推遲或取消了購買或升級俄羅斯裝備的幾項談判。
Mr Putin's India trip, meanwhile, has been presented as a routine exercise following the two leaders' vow to meet annually.
與此同時，普京的印度之行被描述為例行演習，此前兩國領導人承諾每年舉行會晤。
Still, it would be his first trip to India since his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
不過，這將是他全面入侵烏克蘭以來首次訪問印度。
And it could provoke the sort of PR disaster that marred Mr Modi's Moscow visit, when he bear-hugged Mr Putin shortly after a deadly Russian missile strike on Ukrainian sites including a children's hospital.
這可能會引發莫迪訪問莫斯科時那種公關危機，當時，在俄羅斯向烏克蘭一些地點（包括一家兒童醫院）發射致命導彈后不久，莫迪緊緊擁抱了普京。
Even without another such atrocity, the visit is likely to undermine Mr Modi's efforts to present India as a neutral party in the war.
即使沒有發生另一起這樣的暴行，此次訪問也可能破壞莫迪將印度描繪為戰爭中立方的努力。
For Indian officials the risks of strengthening ties with Russia appear to be acceptable.
對于印度官員來說，加強與俄羅斯關系的風險似乎是可以接受的。
But they may be underestimating a longer-term problem. Russia is a useful short-term source of energy and technology.
但他們可能低估了一個長期問題。俄羅斯是一個有用的短期能源和技術來源。
But its demographic and economic prospects are grim, even were peace to return.
但即使和平重現，印度的人口和經濟前景也不容樂觀。
India is also exposing itself to fallout from Russia's inevitable domestic turmoil—Mr Putin cannot live for ever—to say nothing of further Kremlin misadventures abroad.
印度還面臨著俄羅斯不可避免的國內動亂的影響——普京不可能永遠活下去——更不用說克里姆林宮在國外的進一步冒險了。
