評論
打印
Ever since the start of the war in Ukraine, the West has tried to persuade India to distance itself from Russia. India has consistently rebuffed the entreaties.
自烏克蘭戰爭爆發以來，西方一直試圖說服印度與俄羅斯保持距離。印度一直拒絕這些懇求。
Its officials have pointed out—in often testy exchanges—that the Kremlin has been a stalwart friend for decades.
印度官員指出——在經常緊張的交流中——俄羅斯幾十年來一直是印度堅定的朋友。
Russia also accounts for about 65% of India's arms imports over the past 20-odd years.
在過去20多年里，俄羅斯還占印度武器進口量的65%左右。
Besides, they argued, India needs to nurture the relationship to offset warming ties between Russia and China, India's chief rival.
此外，他們認為，印度需要培養這種關系，以抵消俄羅斯與印度主要競爭對手中國之間關系升溫的影響。
Western officials and observers concluded that this dynamic would change over time as India increasingly relied on America and its allies for commercial and military partnerships.
西方官員和觀察人士得出結論，隨著印度越來越依賴美國及其盟友建立商業和軍事伙伴關系，這種動態將隨著時間的推移而改變。
Their governments decided to strengthen economic ties and provide more advanced defence technology rather than hectoring India.
他們的政府決定加強經濟聯系并提供更先進的國防技術，而不是恐嚇印度。
Thus followed deals such as one with America in 2023 to jointly manufacture fighter-jet engines on Indian soil.
因此，印度隨后與美國達成了一項協議，在2023年在印度領土上聯合制造戰斗機發動機。
India, however, sees its future with Russia very differently, as recent developments make amply clear.
然而，印度對與俄羅斯的未來有著截然不同的看法，最近的事態發展充分表明了這一點。
First came news that Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, would visit India in early 2025.
首先有消息稱，俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京將于2025年初訪問印度。
A few days later, on December 8th, India's defence minister, Rajnath Singh, arrived in Moscow to discuss new defence deals, including the purchase of a $4 billion radar system.
幾天后，12月8日，印度國防部長拉杰納特·辛格(Rajnath Singh)抵達莫斯科討論新的國防協議，包括購買價值40億美元的雷達系統。
That was followed by the two countries' biggest-ever energy agreement, worth roughly $13 billion a year.
隨后，兩國達成了有史以來最大的能源協議，每年價值約130億美元。
Rosneft, Russia's state oil company, is to supply some 500,000 barrels per day of crude oil to Reliance, a private Indian refiner, for ten years.
俄羅斯國有石油公司Rosneft將向印度私營煉油商Reliance供應約50萬桶原油，為期十年。
India has for the past few years cheerfully bought Russian oil for less than the $60-per-barrel price cap imposed by Western sanctions, becoming the world's second-biggest buyer of the stuff after China.
過去幾年，印度一直以低于西方制裁規定的每桶60美元的價格上限的價格購買俄羅斯石油，成為僅次于中國的世界第二大石油買家。
In 2021 just 2% of India's oil imports came from Russia. Between April and October 2024 nearly 40% did.
2021年，印度只有2%的石油進口來自俄羅斯。2024年4月至10月期間，這一比例接近40%。
ICRA, a rating agency, estimates that discounted Russian oil has saved India at least $13 billion since the war in Ukraine began.
評級機構ICRA估計，自烏克蘭戰爭爆發以來，俄羅斯的折扣石油為印度節省了至少130億美元。
Rather than winding down an old cold-war friendship, as Western officials hoped,
印度并沒有像西方官員希望的那樣結束冷戰時期的友誼，
India is deepening defence, energy and other ties with a partner it sees as a source of prosperity and security and as a linchpin of its "multi-aligned" foreign policy.
而是加深了與俄羅斯的國防、能源和其他關系，而俄羅斯是印度繁榮和安全的源泉，也是其“多邊”外交政策的關鍵。
And it is hoping that this will become less controversial with the return to the White House of Donald Trump. The president-elect was friendly with India during his first term.
印度希望，隨著唐納德·特朗普重返白宮，這一舉措將不再那么有爭議。這位候任總統在其第一任期內與印度關系友好。
His pledges to bring peace to Ukraine through negotiation with Russia, if he follows through and meets with success, could also help ease pressure on Russia—and thus India.
他承諾與俄羅斯談判為烏克蘭帶來和平，如果他堅持下去并取得成功，這也有助于緩解俄羅斯的壓力——從而減輕印度的壓力。
This bet could pay off. But the risks are severe. That was demonstrated on January 10th when America escalated sanctions on Russian oil.
這一賭注可能會有回報。但風險也很大。1月10日，美國升級了對俄羅斯石油的制裁，就證明了這一點。
New measures target producers, insurers and traders, as well as the "dark" fleet of tankers that often carries Russian shipments.
新措施針對的是生產商、保險公司和貿易商，以及經常運載俄羅斯貨物的“黑暗”油輪船隊。
India (and China) could be forced to buy pricier oil from the Middle East.
印度（和中國）可能被迫從中東購買價格更高的石油。
Indian state refiners are now scrambling to speed payments for Russian crude and to secure delivery of 4.4 million barrels currently at sea within a 48-day "wind-down" period allowed by American authorities, according to Bloomberg.
據彭博社報道，印度國有煉油商現在正忙著加快支付俄羅斯原油，并確保在美國當局允許的48天“緩沖期”內交付目前在海上的440萬桶原油。
