This sudden shift in how resources are allocated is causing stresses and strains as demand surges for raw materials and a scramble occurs for the few projects with regulatory approval. We calculate that the price of a basket of five minerals used in electric cars and power grids has soared by 139% in the past year. Timber mafias are roaming Ecuadorean forests to find balsa wood used in wind-turbine blades. In February a British auction of sea-bed rights for offshore wind farms brought in up to $12bn because energy firms rushed to get exposure whatever the cost. The shortages extend to finance: as a mass of money chases a few renewable-energy firms, valuations have been stretched into bubbly territory. Although the weight of the renewable-energy industry in consumer-price indices is still small, some financiers fear that supply shortages over years could eventually fuel higher inflation.

What makes these signs of overstretch so striking is that they are materialising even as the energy transition is less than 10% complete (measured by the share of cumulative energy-investment needed by 2050 that has already taken place). It is true that some of the technologies which will be required barely exist yet and so are not available for investment. That is why so much research and development is needed. But in other areas the brain work has largely been done—so the 2020s must be the decade of brawn, ramping up established technologies with massive capital spending.

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