評論
打印
The figures for the coming decade are mind-concentrating. To stay on track for net zero, by 2030 annual production of electric vehicles needs to be ten times higher than it was last year and the number of roadside charging stations 31 times bigger. The installed base of renewable-power generation needs to rise three-fold. Global mining firms may have to raise the annual production of critical minerals by 500%. Perhaps 2% of America’s land will have to be blanketed in turbines and solar panels.
未來十年的數據值得關注。為了實現凈零排放，到2030年，電動汽車的年產量需要比去年增長10倍，路邊充電站的數量也要增長31倍。可再生能源發電的裝機規模需要增加三倍。全球礦業公司可能不得不將關鍵礦產的年產量提高500%。也許美國2%的土地將被渦輪機和太陽能板覆蓋。
All this will require vast investment: some $35trn over the next decade, equivalent to a third of the global fund-management industry’s assets today. The system best equipped to deliver this is the network of cross-border supply chains and capital markets that has revolutionised the world since the 1990s. Yet even this system is underdelivering, with energy investment running at about half the level required, and skewed towards a few rich countries and China. Despite soaring metals prices, for example, mining firms are wary of boosting supply.
所有這些都需要巨額投資：在未來十年內將需要投資約35萬億美元，相當于目前全球基金管理業資產的三分之一。最有能力實現這一目標的系統是跨境供應鏈和資本市場網絡，自20世紀90年代以來，這一網絡已經徹底改變了世界。然而，就連這一系統也難以發揮應有的作用，能源投資只達到所需水平的一半左右，而且主要流入少數富裕國家和中國。例如，盡管金屬價格飆升，但礦業公司對增加供應持謹慎態度。
The main reason for the investment shortfall is that it takes too long to get projects approved and their expected risk and returns are still too opaque. Governments are making things worse by using climate policy as a vehicle for other political objectives. The European Union aspires to strategic autonomy in batteries and its green agenda directs a chunk of its budget to deprived areas. Similarly, President Joe Biden’s nascent green plan prioritises union jobs and local manufacturers. This mix of blurred goals and soft protectionism hobbles the necessary investment.
投資缺口的主要原因是項目審批時間過長，其預期風險和回報率的透明度仍然太差。政府利用氣候政策作為實現其他政治目標的工具，使情況雪上加霜。歐盟渴望實現電池的戰略自主，其綠色議程將其預算的一大部分用于貧困地區。同樣，拜登總統剛剛起步的綠色計劃也將工會工作和本土制造商列為優先事項。模糊的目標和溫和護主義阻礙了必要的投資。
譯文由可可原創，僅供學習交流使用，未經許可請勿轉載。
