Those actions will buy time, but no more than that. There are still limits on how much the ECB can help the south and extra bond purchases are likely to end before southern economies recover. The bank may feel it lacks the mandate to extend its scheme. A legal challenge in Germany is an ever-present threat. And, aware that they are pushing their luck, southern countries may opt for smaller stimulus packages than they really need. That could still mean they face a doom loop as a shrinking economy makes it harder to service existing debts.
這些行動將贏得時間，但僅此而已。歐洲央行能在多大程度上幫助南歐國家仍有限制，在南歐經濟體復蘇之前，額外的債券購買可能會結束。歐洲央行可能會覺得自己缺乏擴大該計劃的授權。在德國，法律上的挑戰是一直存在的威脅。而且，意識到他們是在碰運氣，南部國家可能會選擇比真正需要的更小的刺激方案。這可能仍然意味著，隨著經濟萎縮，償還現有債務變得更加困難，南部國家將面臨厄運循環。
Politically the euro faces a dilemma. In the south millions more might conclude that membership of the single currency brings no benefits, fuelling support for Eurosceptic parties such as Italy’s Northern League and the National Rally of Marine Le Pen in France. In the north bail-outs would bolster the likes of the hard-right Alternative for Germany.
從政治上講，歐元面臨著兩難境地。在南部，還有數百萬人可能會得出結論，認為加入單一貨幣不會帶來任何好處，從而助長了對歐洲懷疑論政黨的支持，比如意大利的北方聯盟和法國的馬琳•勒龐全國集會。在北方，緊急援助將支持極右翼的德國新選項黨。
What to do? As The Economist went to press euro-area finance ministers were still struggling to agree on measures, including common funding for unemployment insurance and easier access to credit lines from a common bail-out fund. But the resources available are puny. A proposal, backed by nine member states, for “coronabonds”, or jointly issued debt, is likely to founder. This would have let the south take advantage of the north’s cheap borrowing costs.
該做什么？在本期《經濟學人》付印之際，歐元區各國財長仍在努力就措施達成一致，包括為失業保險提供共同資金，以及從共同紓困基金中更容易獲得信貸額度。但是可用的資源很少。一項由9個成員國支持的“coronabond”(聯合發行債券)提案可能會失敗。這將使韓國得以利用朝鮮低廉的借貸成本。
Northerners have long resisted mutualisation for fear of underwriting laxity in the south. But without it Italy and Spain will face either a savage crisis now or a lengthy debt crisis in the future. With lockdowns in place from Saxony to Sicily, debt issued today is a result not of bad behaviour but of the pandemic. Mutualisation should be a compromise, signalling that north and south have to live together in their common interest. Even some past opponents of Eurobonds, such as Klaas Knot, head of the Dutch central bank, now see a case for them. Northern leaders must follow. For two decades they have shied away from the fact that the currency union cannot succeed unless its members share more risk. If they do not face up to that today, the euro, and perhaps the European Union itself, will not survive.
長期以來，北方人一直拒絕共同化，因為他們擔心南方的保險制度過于寬松。但如果不這樣做，意大利和西班牙將面臨一場嚴重的危機，或者未來漫長的債務危機。隨著從薩克森到西西里島等地的禁閉，今天發行的債券不是不良行為的結果，而是受疫情影響的結果。共同化應該是一種妥協，表明北方和南方必須為了共同利益而生活在一起。甚至一些過去反對歐元債券的人，如荷蘭央行行長克拉斯•諾特，現在也看到了支持歐元債券的理由。北方領導人必須效仿。二十年來，他們一直回避這樣一個事實：除非成員國分擔更多風險，否則貨幣聯盟就無法成功。如果他們今天不正視這一點，歐元(或許還有歐盟本身)將不復存在。
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