評論
打印
Leaders
來源于《社論》版塊
The euro area
歐元區(qū)
Cut to the chase
開門見山
Look out for a panic about the single currency. If it cannot integrate further it will break up
警惕對單一貨幣的恐慌。如果它不能進一步整合，就會分裂
The euro area is set for its deepest downturn and its sternest economic test yet. Some forecasters expect GDP to shrink by nearly a tenth in 2020. But as history is being made, it is also being repeated. Talks between Europe’s politicians about the covid-19 crisis have descended into yet another ugly row over which countries gain and lose from a common currency. The acrimony has its roots in Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis in 2010-12, when stricken southerners pleaded for solidarity and northerners refused to bail out what they saw as bad behaviour.
歐元區(qū)將面臨有史以來最嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟衰退和最嚴(yán)峻的經(jīng)濟考驗。一些預(yù)測者預(yù)計，到2020年，GDP將縮水近十分之一。但在創(chuàng)造歷史的同時，歷史也在重演。歐洲政客之間關(guān)于covid-19危機的談判已演變成另一場關(guān)于各國從共同貨幣中得失的丑陋爭吵。2010年至2012年的歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機是這場口水戰(zhàn)的根源，當(dāng)時飽受打擊的南方人呼吁團結(jié)一致，而北方人則拒絕救助他們眼中的不良行為。
Back then the euro area avoided collapse largely thanks to action by the European Central Bank (ECB). The euro zone has since had a chance to pass deep reforms in order to deal with its fragility once and for all, but the time was ill-used. Having given up their monetary independence long ago and failed to cut public debt, some countries cannot deal with the crisis on their own. They need help from stronger economies in the north.
當(dāng)時，多虧歐洲中央銀行(ECB)的行動，歐元區(qū)才得以避免崩潰。為了一勞永逸地解決自身的脆弱性，歐元區(qū)本來有機會通過深度改革，但卻沒有好好利用這個機會。一些國家早就放棄了貨幣獨立，也未能削減公共債務(wù)，因此無法獨自應(yīng)對危機。他們需要北方強大經(jīng)濟體的幫助。
To avoid a deep and enduring slump, the southern countries need government spending that will shore up their economies today and relaunch them when the pandemic has abated. Yet this spending will sharply increase their debts. In Italy public borrowings are already worth 135% of GDP, and that figure could easily rise to well over 150% with even a modest stimulus. If its government spends freely, investors could panic about an eventual default or debt restructuring. Greece, Spain— and even France—face the same hard choices.
為了避免嚴(yán)重而持久的經(jīng)濟衰退，南方國家需要政府支出來支撐他們今天的經(jīng)濟，并在流感大流行減弱后重新啟動經(jīng)濟。然而，這些支出將大幅增加他們的債務(wù)。在意大利，公共借款已經(jīng)占到GDP的135%，而且這個數(shù)字很容易上升到150%以上，即使是一個溫和的刺激。如果政府大手大腳地花錢，投資者可能會對最終的違約或債務(wù)重組感到恐慌。希臘、西班牙——甚至法國——都面臨著同樣的艱難選擇。
The temptation is to dither. Southern borrowing costs are higher than the north’s but not near panic levels. Italy’s ten-year bonds yield about two percentage points more than Germany’s. After fumbling, the ECB has tried to limit the damage by acquiring bonds and relaxing rules about what it buys.
誘惑是猶豫。韓國的借貸成本高于朝鮮，但還沒有達到恐慌的程度。意大利十年期債券的收益率比德國高出約兩個百分點。在摸索之后，歐洲央行試圖通過購買債券和放松購買規(guī)定來限制損失。
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