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The question now is whether escalation prevails,
現(xiàn)在的問題是，結(jié)局究竟是沖突升級占上風，
or whether the instinct to back away from direct confrontation —
還是回避正面沖突的本能會開始發(fā)揮作用——
by Mr. Trump and those in Iran who see some kind of accommodation with the West as the only way out of the country’s isolation — kicks in.
這主要取決于特朗普和伊朗一方認為與西方達成某種和解是擺脫伊朗孤立處境的唯一途徑的人士。
It is hardly guaranteed, but it has happened before.
很難保證后一種情況一定會發(fā)生，但以前確實有過先例。
The two countries were closer to conflict a decade ago than was publicly apparent at the time.
十年前，兩國之間的沖突比當時公開表現(xiàn)出來的還要嚴重。
During the Bush and Obama administrations,
在布什時期和奧巴馬時期，
Israel was repeatedly talked down from attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities.
以色列曾多次被美國說服放棄攻擊伊朗的核設施。
If retaliation followed, that would almost certainly have sucked in American military forces.
如果隨后發(fā)生了報復行動，美國的軍隊十有八九已經(jīng)卷入其中了。
Both conducted complex cyberattacks on the Iranian facilities to buy some time,
為了爭取時間，兩屆政府都曾對伊朗的核設施進行過復雜的網(wǎng)絡攻擊，
and Mr. Obama began negotiations behind the backs of the Israelis and the Saudis.
奧巴馬還背著以色列和阿拉伯跟伊朗談判過。
He ultimately reached the deal that Mr. Trump denounced as one of the worst in history.
最終，他促成了那個被特朗普譴責為史上最糟糕的協(xié)議之一的伊朗核協(xié)議。
But the national security team that dominated Mr. Trump’s first 15 months in office —
然而，在特朗普執(zhí)政的頭15個月里發(fā)揮著主導作用的國家安全團隊——
the national security adviser, Lt. Gen. H. R. McMaster; the secretary of state, Rex W. Tillerson;
國家安全顧問麥克馬斯特中將；國務卿雷克斯·W·蒂勒森
and the secretary of defense, Jim Mattis —
以及國防部長吉姆·馬蒂斯——
were unanimous in the view that the president should expand the deal, rather than reject it.
一致認為，總統(tǒng)應該進一步拓寬該協(xié)議的范圍，而非否決它。
As soon as Mr. Tillerson and Mr. McMaster were forced out, Mr. Trump withdrew from the deal,
蒂勒森和麥克馬斯特雙雙被特朗普辭退后，特朗普立即退出了該協(xié)議，
and their successors devised a sanctions regime that Mr. Pompeo described as meant to bring Iran’s oil revenue “to zero.”
兩位的繼任者則制定了一套據(jù)蓬佩奧稱，旨在將伊朗的石油收入“降至零”的制裁體制。
For a year, Mr. Zarif and President Hassan Rouhani seemed to hold Iran’s hard-line factions at bay.
最近一年，伊朗外長扎里夫和伊朗總統(tǒng)哈桑·魯哈尼似乎已經(jīng)制住了伊朗的強硬派。
They asserted that it was better to stay within the limits of the nuclear accord —
他們宣稱，相比煽動危機，繼續(xù)停留在核協(xié)議之內(nèi)——
even if the United States was in violation of its own commitments to suspend sanctions — than to incite a crisis.
即便美國自己違背了暫停制裁的承諾——才是明智的選擇。
The Europeans appeared to side with Iran,
歐洲這次似乎站到了伊朗一邊，
declaring publicly that Mr. Trump was making a huge mistake
他們公開昭示，特朗普退出核協(xié)議是極大的錯誤，
by abandoning an agreement that, at least for the next dozen years or so, would keep Iran from producing the fuel for a nuclear weapon.
否則，該協(xié)議阻止伊朗生產(chǎn)核武器所需燃料至少還能再阻止十年左右。
In an interview in New York in late April,
4月底在紐約接受采訪時，
Mr. Zarif said that he was fighting a back-channel bureaucratic struggle in Iran to preserve the agreement “every day.”
扎里夫說，為了保住協(xié)議，他“每天”都在與伊朗的幕后官僚斗爭作斗爭。
He ended with a suggestion for the Trump administration:
采訪最后，他向特朗普政府提了一個建議：
Rather than look for new ways to maximize pain, try “showing some respect.”
與其想新的方法讓痛苦最大化，不如試著“放尊重些”。
Last month, it became clear that Mr. Rouhani and Mr. Zarif,
上月，在國內(nèi)經(jīng)常被指責與美國過從甚密的魯哈尼和扎里夫，
often denounced at home for being too cozy with the United States, were losing that internal argument.
明顯已經(jīng)在這場內(nèi)部爭論中失勢。
Under pressure to explain why a deal that he promised would help lift economic sanctions had only resulted in even harsher ones,
被要求解釋協(xié)議為何不僅沒有像他承諾的那樣解除伊朗受到的經(jīng)濟制裁，反而讓制裁變得更為嚴厲時，
Mr. Rouhani announced that Iran would begin to edge out of the nuclear restrictions,
面對這一壓力，魯哈尼宣布，伊朗將開始逐步走出核協(xié)議的條條框框，
loosening different elements of them every 60 days
每60天解除一批規(guī)定，
unless the Europeans found a way to make up for the American-imposed penalties.
除非歐洲想到辦法彌補美國對伊朗施加的懲罰。
While a slow move rather than a drastic one,
盡管伊朗只做出了緩慢而非激烈的舉措，
it also signaled a new moment of confrontation between Iran and the West
伊朗的行動還是標志著伊朗和西方的對抗進入了一個新的時刻，
and a moment for the Revolutionary Guards —
而這也是革命衛(wèi)隊彰顯其實力的時刻——
designated as a terrorist organization by Mr. Pompeo over the objections of the Pentagon — to flex its muscles.
此前，蓬佩奧曾不顧五角大樓的反對，執(zhí)意將該衛(wèi)隊定位為恐怖組織。
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