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Trump-Kim Talks are Down by Big Egos and Bad Bets
狂妄自大加上錯誤下注 金特會無疾而終
By David E. Sanger and Edward Wong
文/大衛·E.桑格，愛德華·王
HANOI, Vietnam — As President Trump settled into the dining room of a French-colonial hotel in Hanoi on Thursday morning,
越南河內訊——周四上午，特朗普總統在河內一家法國殖民風格的酒店的餐廳落座時，
the conversation with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader with whom he had struck up the oddest of friendships, was already turning tense.
他與朝鮮領導人金正恩的對話就已經變得緊張起來，在此之前，特朗普同金正恩建立了全世界最奇怪的友誼。
In a dinner at the Metropole Hotel the evening before, mere feet from the bomb shelter where guests took cover during the Vietnam War,
因為前一晚在大都會酒店的晚宴上，晚宴就在距離越戰期間酒店客人藏身的防空洞只有幾英尺的地方舉行，
Mr. Kim had resisted what Mr. Trump presented as a grand bargain:
金正恩拒絕了特朗普提出的大談判：
North Korea would trade all its nuclear weapons, material and facilities
朝鮮用所有核武器、材料及設備
for an end to the American-led sanctions squeezing its economy.
交換美國停止其主導的對朝鮮經濟的制裁。
An American official later described this as “a proposal to go big,”
一位美國官員后來形容該談判是“大手筆的提議，”
a bet by Mr. Trump that his force of personality, and view of himself as a consummate dealmaker, would succeed where three previous presidents had failed.
也是特朗普打賭，他的個性力量，加上他對自己作為一個完美的交易高手的定位一定能讓他在前三任總統都折戟的朝鮮核問題上取得成功的一次冒險。
But Mr. Trump’s offer was essentially the same deal that the United States has pushed — and the North has rejected — for a quarter-century.
然而，特朗普的提議本質上還是四分之一個世紀以來美國一直在推動(朝鮮一直在拒絕)的那項協議。
Intelligence agencies had warned him, publicly, Mr. Kim would not be willing to give up the arsenal completely.
情報機構曾公開警告特朗普，金正恩并不會徹底放棄核武庫。
North Korea itself had said repeatedly that it would only move gradually.
朝鮮也曾反復表示，它只會逐步采取無核化措施。
Several of Mr. Trump’s own aides,
特朗普自己的好幾個助手，
led by national security adviser John R. Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo,
領導他們的是國家安全顧問約翰·R·博爾頓和國務卿邁克·龐培，
thought the chances of a grand bargain for total nuclear disarmament were virtually zero.
也都認為在全面核裁軍方面達成重大協議的可能性幾乎為零。
Some questioned whether the summit meeting should go forward.
一些人甚至還對峰會是否還有必要繼續舉行提出了質疑。
Mr. Trump disagreed.
特朗普對此并不同意。
He had taken to showing what he called Mr. Kim’s “beautiful letters” to visitors to the Oval Office,
他開始向到訪總統辦公室的人展示他所謂的金正恩的“漂亮信件”，
as evidence he had built a rapport with one of the world’s most brutal dictators.
當作他同世界上最殘暴的獨裁者之一金正恩建立了友好關系的證據。
While some in the White House worried Mr. Trump was being played,
盡管白宮有些官員擔心特朗普被金玩弄了，
the president seemed entranced — even declaring “we fell in love.”
但總統本人似乎已經被迷住了——他甚至還宣稱“我們相愛了”。
As Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim parted company, nearly a year of optimism and flattery was left poolside at the Metropole,
隨著兩人分道揚鑣，將近一年的樂觀和奉承也被留在了大都會歌劇院的泳池邊，
steps from a meeting room with two empty chairs and flags that had been carefully prepared for a “signing ceremony.”
而距離泳池幾步遠的地方就是擺著兩把空椅子和為“簽約儀式”精心準備的旗子的會議廳。
Mr. Trump and senior diplomats say they hope negotiations will continue, though nothing has been scheduled.
特朗普和美方的高級外交官都表示，他們希望談判能繼續下去，盡管這方面還沒有任何安排。
Mr. Kim has promised not to resume weapons testing, and the Pentagon continues to hold off on large-scale military exercises with South Korea.
金正恩承諾不會恢復核武試驗，五角大樓則進一步推遲了與韓國的大規模軍事演習。
In interviews with a half-dozen participants,
從對六名當事人的采訪來看，
it is clear Mr. Trump’s failed gambit was the culmination of two years of threats, hubris and misjudgment on both sides.
很明顯，特朗普失敗的開局是兩年來雙方彼此威脅、自傲和誤判的結果。
Mr. Trump entered office convinced he could intimidate the man he liked to call “Little Rocket Man” with tough talk and sanctions,
剛上任時，特朗普深信，他可以用強硬的言辭和制裁恐嚇住他喜歡稱之為“小火箭人”的金正恩，
then abruptly took the opposite tack, overruling his aides and personalizing the diplomacy.
之后他卻突然采取相反的策略，推翻他的助手，將對朝鮮的外交變成了個人化的外交。
Mr. Kim also miscalculated.
金正恩也做出了錯誤的判斷。
He bet Mr. Trump might accept a more modest offer that American negotiators in Hanoi had already dismissed:
他賭特朗普或許會接受一項更為溫和的提議：
The North would dismantle the Yongbyon nuclear complex,
朝鮮拆除寧邊的核設施，
three square miles of aging facilities at the heart of the nuclear program,
那是一個占地三平方英里，設施已經老化，但仍在朝鮮的核武計劃占據著核心地位的核武基地，
for an end to the sanctions most harmful to its economy, those enacted since 2016.
換取自2016年開始的對其經濟實施的最嚴厲的一次制裁的結束，但該提議已經被美國在河內的談判代表拒絕了。
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