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The bigger issue is the vast disruption that would occur in the transition to more autarky.
更大的問題在于，在向更自給自足的過渡中會發生巨大的混亂。
America's economy is configured for designing iPhones, not assembling their components;
美國的經濟適用于設計蘋果手機，而不是裝配其零件；
the innards of its cars and planes cross national borders many times before the final product is ready.
在最終汽車和飛機的成品做好前，其內部結構要多次越過美國邊境。
Faced with tariffs, firms have to redirect labour and capital to replace imports.
面對關稅，企業不得不重新調整勞動力和資本來替代進口。
Some analysts attribute Mr Trump's presidency to the economic shock from trade with China after 2000.
某些分析家將特朗普當選總統歸因于2000年后與中國的貿易往來帶來的經濟沖擊。
The turmoil caused by reversing globalisation would be just as bad.
全球化逆轉帶來的混亂也同樣糟糕。
One estimate puts American job losses from a trade war at 550,000.
據估計，美國因貿易戰而失業的人數達5.5萬人。
The hit to China would also be severe.
中國遭受的打擊也很嚴重。
Any adjustment would be prolonged by Mr Trump's unpredictability.
任何調整都會因特朗普的不可預測性而延期。
Without knowing whether tariffs might rise or fall, what company would think it wise to invest in a new supply chain?
在不知道關稅會上升還是下降的情況下，哪家公司會認為投資于新的供應鏈是明智之選呢？
It is difficult to imagine such a realignment without a global recession.
如果沒有全球經濟衰退，很難想象這樣的調整。
Tariffs temporarily push up inflation, making it harder for central banks to cushion the blow.
關稅暫時性加大了通貨膨脹，這使得央行更難減輕沖擊。
The flight to safety accompanying any global downturn would keep the dollar strong, even as America's fiscal stimulus peters out after 2019.
即使美國的財政刺激在2019年之后逐漸停息，伴隨著全球經濟衰退的求穩之路仍會使美元保持堅挺。
So be wary.
因此要小心謹慎。
The trade war may yet be contained, to the benefit of the world economy.
為了世界經濟的利益，貿易戰可能還會被遏制。
But America is the engine of global growth. In Mr Trump, a dangerous driver is at the wheel.
但是美國是世界經濟的引擎。在特朗普身上，就好像看到了一個高危司機在開車。
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